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Informist, Monday, Nov. 24, 2025

 

By Rati Chaphekar

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended sharply higher against the dollar Monday, primarily due to the Reserve Bank of India's active intervention through dollar sales, dealers said. However, gains in the domestic currency were capped as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, they said. 

 

"We expected a lot of movement today (Monday) and buying pressure (of dollars) was there accordingly," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "But intervention (by RBI) at various levels had curbed the volatility in the market."

 

The rupee ended the day at 89.2300 a dollar, up 0.3% against its previous close of 89.4800. The Indian currency had posted its biggest single-day fall in over six months to a record low of 89.4950 a dollar on Friday. Other Asian currencies fell 0.1-0.6% against the dollar Monday, with the South Korean won being the worst hit. The rupee was the best performer amongst its peers.

 

The rupee was on track to open at a fresh record low, but shortly before the spot market opened, some state-owned banks stepped in to sell dollars in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market, likely on behalf of the RBI, which prevented the move, dealers said. Before the spot market opened, the Indian unit was trading at 89.5500 a dollar in the offshore NDF market, but opened at 89.1500 in spot, all thanks to the central bank.

 

The RBI likely extended its intervention to the spot market as well, following which the rupee touched a high of 89.1000, they said. "RBI's intervention was very much expected at these levels," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "After the sharp move on Friday, they will not let the rupee move a lot for some days."

 

However, banks stepped in to buy dollars on behalf of importers, who wanted to make the most of the relatively lower dollar/rupee levels after the unexpected slump in the Indian unit, dealers said. This limited the rise in the Indian unit. The rupee fell 0.9% against the greenback Friday owing to a lack of RBI support, dampened expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, and uncertainty around an India-US trade deal.

 

Dealers expect the RBI to hold the rupee above the 89.50 level per dollar for the next few days to prevent the local unit from a runaway depreciation. "The next big break for the rupee will not come anytime soon now," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "Most likely, the central bank will hold the level until the trade deal between India-US happens." The US has imposed a 50% tariff on imports from India, 25% of which is due to India's oil purchase from Russia. Both countries have held several rounds of negotiations to crack a trade deal, but have failed to reach any conclusion to date. 

 

Meanwhile, the dollar index was steady as market participants await further cues on the US Federal Reserve's December rate decision. Latest US labour market data added to market confusion, as unemployment rose marginally even as non-farm payrolls rose twice as much as expected. At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 100.13, lower than 100.20 Friday and 100.21 Thursday.

 

Comments by New York Fed President John Williams over the weekend that interest rates could fall "in the near term" boosted the likelihood of a rate cut at the Fed's December meeting. Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in a 70% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting, up from 35% last week.

 

The central bank likely intermittently intervened in the currency market during the day at multiple dollar-rupee levels, which kept the Indian unit well-supported, dealers said. The RBI likely sold around $1.0 billion to $1.5 billion in the spot market on Monday, according to some dealers. 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	89.2300	89.1500	89.1000	89.2825	89.4800
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	198.10	196.07	198.10	194.90	193.44

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended at a near four-week high Monday, tracking a fall in US Treasury yields on expectations that the US Fed may lower the interest rate at its meeting next month, dealers said. US Treasury yields fell Friday after comments by New York Fed President John Williams that interest rates could fall "in the near term" increased the likelihood of a rate cut at the Fed's December meeting. The 10-year US bond yield fell to 4.06% Friday from 4.10% Thursday. 

 

Further, banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, noting the appreciation in the rupee Monday, which further supported premiums, dealers said. The lack of dollar-rupee buy-sell swaps by the central bank, to neutralise the impact of its spot intervention and avert pushing out rupee liquidity, also supported forward premiums, dealers said. 

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.21%, up from the previous close of 2.16%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 198.10 paise, against Friday's close of 193.44 paise. 

 

OUTLOOK

On Tuesday, the rupee is likely to take cues from movement in the dollar index and Asian currencies, dealers said. Most dealers expect the RBI to continue intervening actively in the currency market to protect the rupee from falling to a lifetime low and testing the psychologically-crucial 90-per-dollar mark. 

 

"I think there will be some consolidation in the rupee range for some weeks," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Flows should return to India in some time and that is when we will start to see some meaningful movement in the rupee." 

 

Market participants will also continue to watch developments related to the India-US trade deal talks. Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee rate, which would keep downward pressure on the local currency intact.

 

"Despite today's bounce (in rupee), the broader trend looks weak, and the rupee is expected to trade within a volatile range of 88.75–89.50 in the near term," Jateen Trivedi, VP research analyst - commodity and currency at LKP Securities, said in a note.

 

The rupee is expected to move in a range of 89.10 to 89.50 against the dollar. Immediate technical resistance for the rupee is pegged at 89.00 per dollar and support at 89.50.

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India Rupee - World FX: Yen down on weak econ data; pound sterling steady

 

	AT 1445 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3097	1.3112	1.3081	1.3100
EUR/USD	1.1531	1.1535	1.1502	1.1519
NZD/USD	0.5609	0.5614	0.5600	0.5609
AUD/USD	0.6462	0.6468	0.6449	0.6453
USD/JPY	156.7620	157.1100	156.4650	156.3800
USD/CAD	1.4097	1.4107	1.4092	1.4101
EUR/JPY	180.7740	180.9815	180.1810	180.1098
CHF/USD	1.2369	1.2386	1.2341	1.2364
EUR/CHF	0.9321	0.9328	0.9302	0.9309

 

MUMBAI – The Japanese yen fell 0.2% against the greenback after data released Friday showed Japan's manufacturing activity remained in contraction territory for the fifth month in November, albeit at a slower pace than in the previous month due to a softer decline in output. The S&P Global flash Japan Manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to 48.8 in November from October's 48.2. A print below 50 shows contraction. 

 

Meanwhile, Bank of Japan board member Kazuyuki Masu said over the weekend that the Bank of Japan was "nearing" a decision to raise interest rates and would not wait until after next year's spring wage negotiations end, Masu told the newspaper Nikkei. "I can't say what month it'll be, but in terms of distance, we're close," Masu said, according to the Nikkei, which interviewed him on Thursday.

 

The euro traded steady against the greenback after data released Friday showed business activity in the Euro zone grew steadily in November as services expanded at the quickest pace in 1-1/2 years, while weak demand sent manufacturing back into contraction territory. The HCOB Flash Eurozone Composite PMI declined slightly to 52.4 in November from 52.5 in October, a tad below the Reuters poll forecast of 52.5. 

 

The pound sterling was flat against the dollar as UK business growth steadied in November, as companies put their plans on hold while they waited to see if next week's government budget would raise the tax burden for a second year running. The S&P Global purchasing managers' index composite flash measure dropped to 50.5 in November from 52.2 in October, barely above the 50 no-change mark.

 

Meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams said over the weekend that he expects interest rates could fall "in the near term", which boosted the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in December. Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in a 70% chance of a rate cut at the December meeting, up from 35% last week. At 1445 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 100.15, slightly lower than 100.20 Friday and 100.21 Thursday.

 

The New Zealand dollar traded steady against the greenback ahead of Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy committee meeting on Wednesday, when the bank is widely expected to cut the key policy by 25 basis points. The Australian dollar also traded steady against the dollar.  (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Fwd premium at 4-wk high as US yields fall on Fed rate cut bets

 

	AT 1355 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	89.2150	89.1500	89.1000	89.2600	89.4800
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	196.60	196.07	197.33	194.90	193.44

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose to a near four-week high Monday, tracking a fall in US Treasury yields on expectations that the US Federal Reserve may lower interest rate at its meeting next month, dealers said.

 

US Treasury yields fell Friday after comments by New York Fed President John Williams over the weekend that interest rates could fall "in the near term", boosted the likelihood of a rate cut at the Fed's December meeting. The 10-year US bond yield fell to 4.06% Friday from 4.10% Thursday. Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in a 70% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting, up from 35% last week, according to CME FedWatch Tool.

 

Further, banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, noting the appreciation in the rupee Monday, which further supported premiums, dealers said. After unexpectedly slumping past the 89-per-dollar mark and hitting a record low of 89.4950 a dollar on Friday, the rupee rose to 89.1000 Monday, likely due to the Reserve Bank of India's dollar sales in the offshore non-deliverable forwards and spot markets, according to dealers. 

 

Lack of dollar-rupee buy-sell swaps by the central bank, in order to neutralise the impact of its spot intervention and avert pushing out rupee liquidity, also supported forward premiums, dealers said. "After heavy selling (of dollars) in NDF it was likely that the central bank will be present in the forwards market too, but that was not the case," a dealer at a private sector bank said.

 

At 1355 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.20%, up from the previous close of 2.16%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 196.60 paise, against Friday's close of 193.44 paise. (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Pares gains as importers buy dollars; RBI's dlr sales support

 

	AT 1330 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	89.2425	89.1500	89.1000	89.2625	89.4800

 

MUMBAI - The rupee pared some of its earlier gains against the dollar as banks bought the greenback on behalf of importers, noting the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, dealers said. The Indian unit hit a high of 89.1000 a dollar earlier in the day. 

 

"There is strong dollar demand from importers," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "But strong selling from nat (nationalised) banks has kept the rupee hovering around 89.18-89.19 (a dollar) level." 

 

Importers bought dollars, fearing a fall in the domestic currency, after the local unit unexpectedly slumped to a lifetime low of 89.4950 Friday, dealers said. The rupee fell to a record low level as the RBI let go of its strong hold of the 88.80 a dollar level after nearly two months. 

However, the rupee had surged earlier in the day as some public sector banks sold dollars, likely for the Reserve Bank of India, both in the offshore non-deliverable forwards and spot market, dealers said.

 

Meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams said over the weekend that he expects interest rates could fall "in the near term", which boosted the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in December. Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in a 70% chance of a rate cut at the December meeting, up from 35% last week. At 1330 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 100.24, slightly higher than 100.20 Friday and 

100.21 Thursday.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 89.10 and 89.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 89.00. (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Nov 24

 

MUMBAI – At 1059 IST, the rupee was at 89.1725 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 89.1500 a dollar, against the previous close of 89.4800 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	89.80	89.45	89.15	89.00
Private-sector bank	89.50	89.30	89.10	88.90
Brokerage firm	89.85	89.71	89.31	89.05
Brokerage firm	89.50	89.10	89.00	88.70

 

(Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Rises sharply as RBI sells dollars in spot and NDF markets

 

	AT 0941 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	89.1550	89.1500	89.1000	89.2175	89.4800

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose sharply against the dollar Monday as some state-owned banks sold dollars in the domestic spot market as well as the offshore non-deliverables forwards market, most likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, to prevent the rupee from breaching its record low, dealers said. "There was heavy selling in the NDF," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Looks like it will be a volatile session today (Monday), pressure is there from both sides (buying and selling)."

 

The local unit slumped to a new lifetime low of 89.4950 Friday as the RBI let it go past 88.80 a dollar after more than eight weeks of holding it above that level. The rupee fell 0.9% against the greenback Friday on lack of RBI support, dampened expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, and uncertainty around an India-US trade deal.

 

Meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams said over the weekend that he expects interest rates could fall "in the near term", which boosted the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in December. Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in a 70% chance of a rate cut at the December meeting, up from 35% last week. At 0941 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 100.23, slightly higher than 100.20 Friday and 100.21 Thursday.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 89.10 and 89.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 89.00. (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Down as Fed Williams' remarks boost US rate cut hopes

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies fell against the dollar Monday due to heightened expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve after New York Fed President John Williams' comments late Friday. "I view monetary policy as being modestly restrictive... Therefore, I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate to move the stance of policy closer to the range of neutral," a Reuters report quoted Williams as saying.

 

After Williams' comments, Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in a 70% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting, up from 35% last week. At 0850 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 100.23, slightly higher than 100.20 Friday and 100.21 Thursday.

 

The Taiwan dollar fell 0.1% and the South Korean won fell 0.2% against the greenback Monday. South Korea's Trade Minister Yeo Han-koo Monday said the country hopes of better cooperation with Taiwan to offset US President Donald Trump's tariffs on chips. "Taiwan is also in negotiations, so there is room for South Korea and Taiwan to get the most favourable treatment through cooperation," Yeo Han-koo said.

 

The Philippine peso and the Thai baht fell 0.2% and 0.3% against the dollar, respectively, while the Chinese yuan and Indonesian rupiah traded steady. Bucking the trend, the Malaysian ringgit rose 0.2% against the dollar. (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Nov 24

 

MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee Monday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	89.60	89.30
Private-sector bank	89.55	89.25
Brokerage firm	89.65	89.40
Brokerage firm	89.71	89.31

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Rati Chaphekar)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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