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Informist, Wednesday, Nov. 19, 2025

 

By Rati Chaphekar

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased gains made earlier in the day and ended steady against the greenback Wednesday as persistent dollar purchases by importers neutralised the impact of sales of the greenback by foreign banks for inflows into the domestic bond market on the hope of India's inclusion in the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index, dealers said. The Indian currency was also supported by improved risk appetite among investors around the India-US trade deal, after comments by Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal Tuesday, they said.

 

"The positive sentiment around inclusion in the Bloomberg Index is likely to be carried throughout the week," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "Because if this inclusion happens, we will see substantially large FPI inflows."

The rupee touched a high of 88.4100 a dollar during the day, its highest level in two weeks, but ended at 88.5875 a dollar, steady against Tuesday's close of 88.6050 a dollar. The Indian currency moved in a range of 18 paise during the day.

 

The rupee started the day slightly higher against the greenback, supported by Goyal's comments on the India-US trade talks, dealers said. Goyal Tuesday said India-US relations continue to be "very important" and "strategic". "I don't see any reason to be very worried, I don't believe there is any hiatus in the relation, it continues to be very, very important, very strategic for both countries," he said. In August, the US had imposed 50% tariff on imports from India, including a punitive tariff of 25% for New Delhi's continued purchases of crude oil from Moscow.

 

Shortly after the opening, the rupee received a further boost and rose to a two-week high as foreign banks stepped in to sell dollars for inflows into the domestic bond market. "The market reacted on hopes of a rise in FPI flows," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "The flows will increase by 5-10% at least if the inclusion (in the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index) happens."

 

The Business Standard newspaper Tuesday reported that foreign portfolio investors have given positive feedback to Bloomberg Index Services on India's bond market operations, seen as one of the key barriers to inclusion in the index. "India is currently being evaluated for a potential weight of around 1% in the flagship Global Aggregate Index spread over roughly 10 months, if admitted, and which could lead to an inflow of around $25 billion," as per the report. A formal announcement is likely in January, according to the report.

 

The dollar index rose slightly at the end but was broadly steady for most part of the day as traders awaited the release of key US economic data that were delayed for more than a month because of the record US government shutdown that began Oct. 1. At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.69, unchanged from Tuesday but up from 99.53 Monday.

 

Some dealers also speculated that some state-owned banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, which supported the Indian currency. The central bank has been intervening actively in the currency market since late September to keep the rupee from falling past the 88.80-per-dollar mark. "RBI was present at some levels but in a very staggered manner, not at any particular level," a dealer at a private-sector bank said.

 

However, the domestic currency could not hold on to its gains as banks continued to buy dollars on behalf of importers who wanted to make the most of the relatively lower dollar/rupee levels, dealers said. The rupee, however, was supported by a rise in domestic equities, they said. Wednesday, both the Sensex and the Nifty 50 ended 0.6% higher.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.5875	88.5675	88.5925	88.4100	88.6050
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	194.10	194.10	194.19	193.60	192.90

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended at a near-three-week high Wednesday as state-owned banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, noting the recent sharp appreciation in the rupee, dealers said.

 

The 10-year US bond yield fell to 4.12% Tuesday from 4.13% Monday, supporting the forward premiums. Traders now await the release of key US economic data that were delayed for more than a month by the US government shutdown, dealers said. Traders will closely watch the September non-farm payrolls report due Thursday, among the key metrics that the US Federal Reserve tracks for its interest rate decisions.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.18%, highest since Oct. 30 but unchanged from the previous close. On an absolute basis, the premium was 194.10 paise, against Tuesday's close of 192.90 paise.

 

OUTLOOK

Thursday, the rupee is likely to take cues from the movement of the dollar index and other Asian currencies, dealers said. The rupee may receive a further boost if FPI inflows into the bond market continue, they said. 

 

Market participants will also continue to watch for developments related to the India-US trade talks. Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee rate, which would keep the downward pressure on the local currency intact. However, most expect the RBI to continue intervening actively in the currency market to hold the rupee above 88.80 a dollar.

 

The rupee is expected to move in a range of 88.40 to 88.80 against the dollar. Immediate technical support for the rupee is pegged at 88.80 per dollar and resistance at 88.30.

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India Rupee - World FX: Sterling down on weak econ data; Australian dlr down

 

	AT 1500 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3129	1.3156	1.3121	1.3144
EUR/USD	1.1575	1.1597	1.1571	1.1580
NZD/USD	0.5631	0.5661	0.5628	0.5657
AUD/USD	0.6482	0.6511	0.6477	0.6507
USD/JPY	155.6410	155.6780	155.2150	155.5100
USD/CAD	1.4000	1.4006	1.3985	1.3989
EUR/JPY	180.1610	180.2900	179.7810	180.0800
CHF/USD	1.2492	1.2522	1.2484	1.2503
EUR/CHF	0.9265	0.9271	0.9253	0.9260

 

MUMBAI – The pound sterling fell 0.1% against the dollar after data Wednesday showed UK consumer price inflation fell to 3.6% in October from September's 18-month high of 3.8%. The first decline in inflation since May comes as a relief to the UK government and the Bank of England. The Bank of England as well as economists polled by Reuters had expected the metric to fall, after inflation in September did not reach the 4% mark, which the central bank had previously forecast.

 

Meanwhile, Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill Tuesday said he did not expect his view on interest rates to shift much in the near term, saying wage growth was still substantially above what he viewed as consistent with the Bank of England's inflation target. Pill had voted in favour of keeping the interest rates unchanged in the central bank's November session. "I think when you're talking about wage growth ... that's still growing substantially above ... what is consistent with the 2% inflation target," Pill said.

 

The Australian dollar fell 0.3% against the greenback even after data Wednesday showed wages in Australia grew at a steady pace in the September quarter, driven by public sector pay gains. The data reinforced expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting. The wage price index rose 0.8% in the third quarter (Jul-Sept), unchanged from the previous quarter, which was in line with forecasts.

 

The dollar index was broadly steady as market participants awaited the release of key US economic data that had not been published for over a month due to the prolonged US government shutdown. Traders will closely watch the September non-farm payrolls report due Thursday, among the key metrics that the US Federal Reserve tracks for its interest rate decisions. At 1500 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.65, up from 99.60 Tuesday and from 99.53 Monday. 

 

The euro and Japanese yen traded steady against the greenback, while the Swiss franc fell 0.1%. The New Zealand dollar fell 0.5% against the dollar.  (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Premium up as importers buy forward dollars on surge in rupee

 

	AT 1350 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.5075	88.5675	88.5750	88.4100	88.6050
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	194.10	194.10	194.19	193.60	192.90

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose Wednesday as state-owned banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, noting the recent sharp appreciation in the rupee, dealers said. "Importers have started paying dollars purely because of surge in the spot market," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

The rupee continued its gaining streak from Monday and rose to a high of 88.4100 a dollar on Wednesday, its highest in the past two weeks as foreign banks aggressively sold dollars from inflows into the domestic bond market on hope of India's inclusion in the Bloomberg's Global Aggregate Index.

 

The 10-year US bond yield fell to 4.12% Tuesday from 4.13% Monday. Traders await the release of key US data that was not published for over a month due to the prolonged US government shutdown, dealers said. Traders will closely watch the September non-farm payrolls report due Thursday, among the key metrics that the US Federal Reserve tracks for its interest rate decisions.

 

At 1300 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.18%, slightly up from the previous close of 2.16%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 194.10 paise, against Tuesday's close of 192.90 paise.  (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: At 2-week high as foreign banks sell dollars from bond inflows

 

	AT 1200 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.4425	88.5675	88.4100	88.5750	88.6050

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose to a two-week high as foreign banks aggressively sold dollars from inflows into the domestic bond market on hope of India's inclusion in the Bloomberg's Global Aggregate Index, dealers said. Additionally, comments Tuesday by Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal on the India-US trade deal also helped boost investor confidence in the market, they said.  

 

"Market is reacting to yesterday's (Tuesday's) Bloomberg Index news," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "If the inclusion happens, India will see good amount of FPI inlows. Barring everything else, we may see the rupee going back to 85.00-86.00 (a dollar) level in 2026." 

 

The Business Standard newspaper Tuesday reported foreign portfolio investors gave positive feedback to Bloomberg Index Services on India's bond market operations, seen as one of the key barriers to inclusion in the index. "India is currently being evaluated for a potential weight of around 1% in the flagship Global Aggregate Index spread over roughly 10 months, if admitted, and which could lead to an inflow of around $25 billion," the report said. A formal announcement is likely in January, the report said. 

 

Investors' risk appetite improved after Commerce Minister Goyal's comments Tuesday which were seen as reasuring by market participants. He said there is no reason for traders to be worried as there is no hiatus in trade relations between India and the US. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 88.40 and 88.70 against the greenback. Dealers peg the immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 88.30.  (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Nov 19

 

MUMBAI – At 1130 IST, the rupee was at 88.4800 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 88.5675 a dollar, against the previous close of 88.6050 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	88.80	88.75	88.50	88.40
Private-sector bank	88.75	88.70	88.45	88.35
Brokerage firm	88.70	88.63	88.46	88.37
Brokerage firm	88.60	88.50	88.40	88.30

 

(Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Rises as Goyal's comments boost hopes of India-US trade deal

 

	AT 0945 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.4950	88.5675	88.4600	88.5750	88.6050

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose against the dollar early Wednesday as risk appetite among market participants was boosted after Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal's comments on the India-US trade deal Tuesday, dealers said. However, the gains of the domestic currency were limited as banks bought dollars for importers, who wanted to make the most of the lower dollar-rupee levels, dealers said.

 

"This is the optimism around the trade deal (between India and the US) playing out," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "There are flows from both sides, but buying (of dollars) is not that aggressive yet. Maybe people are expecting the rupee to rise more." The rupee is expected to rise to 88.45 a dollar later in the day if the positive sentiment continues to play out, dealers said. After touching a low of 88.8025 on Sept. 30, the rupee saw a high of 87.6875 a dollar on Oct. 16.  

 

Commerce and Industry Minister Goyal Tuesday said India-US relations continue to be "very important" and "strategic". "I don't see any reason to be very worried, I don't believe there is any hiatus in the relation, it continues to be very, very important, very strategic for both countries," he said. Indian exports have been sharply down since the US in August imposed a 50% tariff on imports from India, 25% of which are punitive tariff over New Delhi's continued purchases of crude oil from Moscow.

 

Dealers expect importers to continue to buy dollars at the current low levels, which is expected to put the Indian currency under further pressure. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 88.40 and 88.70 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 88.30.  (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed as US econ data awaited; Indonesian rupiah down

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies traded mixed Wednesday as market participants await the release of key US data, which will be published Thursday after the longest-ever US government shutdown ended last week. Market participants will keenly watch the September non-farm payrolls' data report on Thursday, a key indicator that will influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Private sector data released earlier this month showed signs of weakness in the US labour market. If the formal US government data also shows a weak labour market, it will bolster hope of a rate cut in December. In recent days, market participants' hope of a rate cut dampened due to the lack of official data for almost a month and a half.

 

Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in a 42.9% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting, down slightly from the previous day and from 62.4% a week ago, according to the CME's FedWatch Tool. At 0850 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.60, unchanged from 99.60 Tuesday but up from 99.53 Monday.  

 

The Indonesian rupiah fell 0.1% against the greenback ahead of Bank Indonesia's monetary policy committee meeting later in the day. The bank is expected to hold rates steady at 4.75%, but is widely expected to cut rates at its December meeting, according to economists polled by Reuters. Governor Warjiyo had said in October that there was still room for further rate cuts as inflation was expected to stay low through 2026. Inflation in Indonesia rose to 2.86% in October, its fastest pace this year, but remained within the central bank's target range of 1.5-3.5%.

 

The Chinese yuan and Thai baht were steady against the greenback. The Taiwanese dollar fell 0.1% and the South Korean won was down 0.3%. On the other hand, the Philippine peso rose 0.2% and the Malaysian ringgit gained 0.3% against the greenback.  (Rati Chaphekar) 

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Nov 19

 

MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Wednesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	88.70	88.50
Private-sector bank	88.70	88.50
Brokerage firm	88.70	88.53
Brokerage firm	88.70	88.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Rati Chaphekar)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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