More Stories

Informist, Monday, Nov. 17, 2025

 

By Pratiksha

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee ended higher against the dollar Monday as banks sold dollars for foreign portfolio investors and likely for the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. However, persistent dollar purchases by importers and an all-time high October trade deficit limited the gains of the Indian unit, they said.

 

"The buy on dips (in dollar-rupee) trend continued, but there were inflows in the market and RBI was present around 88.70," a dealer at a state-owned bank said.

 

The rupee ended at 88.6300 a dollar on Monday, 0.1% higher than its previous close of 88.7425. The Indian currency moved in a range of 17 paise during the day. The rupee was one of the best performers amongst its peers. Other Asian currencies fell 0.1-0.5% against the dollar, with South Korean won being the worst hit.

 

The rupee started the day broadly steady against the dollar as market participants expected the RBI to step in through dollar sales around the current dollar-rupee levels, to prevent the Indian unit from hitting a record low. Dealers said the central bank likely sold dollars around 88.70, which prevented the Indian unit from inching closer to the key 88.80 mark and kept it well-supported.

 

The central bank has been intervening actively in the currency market since late September to keep the rupee from falling past the 88.80 per dollar mark. The Indian currency had hit a lifetime low of 88.8025 on Sept. 30.

 

The Indian unit got a further boost as foreign banks, including a UK-based lender, sold the greenback on behalf of FPIs, looking to invest in domestic equities, dealers said. The rupee touched a high of 88.5625 during the day. "There were some unexpected inflows in the market, which is why the move was a bit sharp," a dealer at a foreign bank said. So far this month, FPIs have infused $775 million into Indian markets, on a net basis.

 

However, the rupee's rise ran into dollar demand on behalf of importers, who wanted to make the most of the relatively lower dollar/rupee levels, dealers said.

 

Further, data released Monday showed India's merchandise trade deficit in October widened to an all-time high because of record imports during the month, which also exerted pressure on the rupee, dealers said. Goods exports fell the sharpest in 15 months in October on a year-on-year basis. The goods trade deficit widened to $41.68 billion in October from $32.14 billion a year ago, the highest deficit in absolute terms. It was up 58.9% on year, the sharpest on-year jump since April.

 

The dollar edged slightly higher as expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve next month were dampened, which also weighed on the local unit, dealers said. Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in a 45.8% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.39, up from 99.27 Friday and 99.23 Thursday.

 

US President Donald Trump Friday rolling back tariffs on more than 200 food products, including staples such as coffee, beef, bananas and orange juice, did not have any impact on the rupee. "I don't think rupee will react to any tariff news, unless it is the final trade deal," a dealer at a private-sector bank said.

 

A senior commerce ministry official Monday said India and the US continue to hold negotiations over a bilateral trade agreement, and a package to address the issue of reciprocal tariffs is almost near closure.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.6300	88.7050	88.5625	88.7275	88.7425
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	191.33	188.50	191.50	188.33	189.61

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended higher as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers for forward delivery, noting the appreciation of the rupee, dealers said. However, gains in the forward premium were limited due to a rise in US Treasury yields, they said.

 

US Treasury yields rose as investors scaled back expectations of rate cuts by the Fed, following comments by Fed officials on the trajectory of interest rate. Forwards of a currency pair are reflective of the interest rate differential between the two countries.

 

The 10-year US bond yield rose to 4.14% Friday from 4.11% Thursday. On Friday, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack cast doubt on the need to cut rates next month.

 

Market participants await the release of a slew of US economic data after the government's shutdown ended, for more clarity on the US Fed's rate decision in December. The key September non-farm payrolls report is due Thursday. At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.16%, up from the previous close of 2.14%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 191.33 paise, against Friday's close of 189.61 paise.

 

OUTLOOK

On Tuesday, the rupee is likely to take cues from the movement of the dollar index and other Asian currencies, dealers said. Most dealers expect the RBI to continue intervening actively in the currency market, to hold the rupee above 88.80 a dollar. They expect the Indian unit to fall beyond the psychologically-crucial 89.00 mark, once the 88.80 level breaks.

 

Market participants will continue to look out for developments related to the India-US trade talks. "Unless the trade deal comes through or inflows come sustainably, rupee will continue trading in the same zone," a dealer at a brokerage firm said.

 

They also expect importers to continue buying dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee rate, which would keep the downward pressure on the local unit intact.

 

The rupee is expected to move in a range of 88.40 to 88.80 against the dollar. Immediate technical support for the rupee is pegged at 88.80 per dollar and resistance at 88.50.

---

India Rupee - World FX: Yen falls post weak GDP data; dollar index rises

 

	AT 1510 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3173	1.3181	1.3136	1.3156
EUR/USD	1.1603	1.1624	1.1595	1.1623
NZD/USD	0.5672	0.5689	0.5658	0.5678
AUD/USD	0.6523	0.6538	0.6512	0.6529
USD/JPY	154.7170	154.8320	154.4220	154.5400
USD/CAD	1.4024	1.4038	1.4017	1.4029
EUR/JPY	179.5080	179.7200	179.0082	179.6400
CHF/USD	1.2591	1.2608	1.2569	1.2582
EUR/CHF	0.9215	0.9228	0.9212	0.9235

 

NEW DELHI – The Japanese yen fell 0.1% against the dollar after data released Monday showed the country's economy shrank almost 2% in the September quarter, as a decline in exports amid US tariffs led to the first contraction in six quarters. GDP contracted 1.8% in Jul-Sept, compared with the revised growth of 2.3% in the previous quarter, as well as the 2.5% contraction estimated in a Reuters poll.

 

Meanwhile, Goushi Kataoka, a private sector member of a key government panel, told Reuters on Monday that Japan must compile a stimulus package of around $149 billion to support an economy hit by US tariffs and weak consumption. 

 

The dollar edged slightly higher as expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve next month dampened. Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in a 45.8% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

 

Market participants await the release of a slew of US economic data following the ending of the government shutdown, for more clarity on the US Fed's rate decision in December. The key September's nonfarm payrolls report is due on Thursday. At 1510 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.41, up from 99.27 Friday and 99.23 Thursday. 

 

The pound sterling was flat against the greenback, settling from the sharp swings on Friday after reports said Finance Minister Rachel Reeves had no plans to raise income tax rates in the upcoming budget. The euro fell 0.2% against the dollar.

 

The Swiss franc was largely steady even after the US and Switzerland announced a framework trade agreement on Friday that includes Washington slashing its tariffs on imported Swiss products to 15% from 39% and a pledge by Swiss companies to invest $200 billion in the US by the end of 2028. The Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar were down 0.2%. (Pratiksha) 

---

India Rupee: Premium tad up as importers buy dollars for forward delivery

 

	AT 1310 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.6200	88.7050	88.5625	88.7275	88.7425
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	189.67	188.50	189.67	188.33	189.61

 

NEW DELHI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose slightly as banks bought dollars for forward delivery, on behalf of importers, noting the appreciation in the rupee, dealers said. The rupee rose to 88.5625 a dollar in the spot market on Monday, likely due to foreign fund inflows. "There is not a lot of movement in forwards. Some import payment in the near term is getting hedged," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. 

 

However, gains in the forward premium were capped due to a rise in US Treasury yields, dealers said. US Treasury yields rose as investors scaled back expectations of imminent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, following comments by Fed officials on the trajectory of the US interest rate. Forwards of a currency pair are reflective of the interest rate differential between the two countries.

 

The 10-year US bond yield rose to 4.14% Friday from 4.11% Thursday. On Friday, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack cast doubt on the need to cut rates next month. Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in a 43.6% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

 

Market participants await the release of a slew of US economic data after the government's shutdown ended, for more clarity on the US Fed's rate decision in December. The key September non-farm payrolls report is due Thursday. "I can't bet with certainty on the far-end forwards, unless there is clarity on what will happen in the US," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Forwards will continue to be directionless without data points."

 

At 1310 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.15%, up from the previous close of 2.14%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 190.67 paise, against Friday's close of 189.61 paise. (Pratiksha)

---

India Rupee:Up as foreign bks sell dlrs for inflow; importers' buys cap rise

 

	AT 1153 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.6225	88.7050	88.5625	88.7275	88.7425

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee rose against the dollar as foreign banks, including a UK-based lender, sold dollars for foreign fund inflows, likely into Indian corporates, dealers said. Moreover, some dealers speculated that the Reserve Bank of India may have sold dollars around 88.72 a dollar level, earlier in the day. 

 

"Around 88.70 (a dollar) nats (nationalised banks) were present but after that foreign banks started selling (dollars) and pushed the rupee higher," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "But I am not sure how long this appreciation will sustain, since we are already seeing some buying (of dollars)." 

 

The central bank has been intervening actively in the currency market since late September to keep the rupee from falling past the 88.80-per-dollar mark. However, some banks rushed to buy dollars on behalf of importers, who wanted to make the most of the relatively lower dollar/rupee levels, which limited gains for the Indian unit, dealers said. The rupee rose to 88.5625 a dollar Monday. 

 

A rise in the dollar index, owing to dampened expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve next month, also weighed on the local unit, according to dealers. Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in a 43.9% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. At 1153 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.46, up from 99.27 Friday and 99.23 Thursday. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 88.50 and 88.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 88.50. (Pratiksha)

---

 India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Nov 17

 

NEW DELHI – At 1110 IST, the rupee was at 88.5825 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 88.7050 a dollar, against the previous close of 88.7425 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	88.80	88.75	88.40	88.20
Brokerage firm	88.80	88.75	88.40	88.00
Brokerage firm	88.90	88.80	88.40	88.00

 

(Pratiksha)

---

India Rupee: Steady on hope of RBI support; rise in dollar index weighs

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.7250	88.7050	88.7050	88.7275	88.7425

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee was broadly steady against the dollar as market participants expect the Reserve Bank of India to step in through dollar sales around the current dollar-rupee levels, to prevent the Indian unit from hitting a record low. "It is the same rangebound market. Once rupee goes towards 88.74-88.75 (a dollar), RBI will step in," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. 

 

The central bank has been intervening actively in the currency market since late September to keep the rupee from falling past the 88.80 per dollar mark. The Indian currency hit a lifetime low of 88.8025 on Sept. 30.

 

The Indian unit was, however, weighed down by a rise in the dollar index and a fall in other Asian currencies, on dampened expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve next month. On Friday, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack cast doubt on the need to cut rates next month.

 

Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in a 45.8% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. At 0930 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.45, up from 99.27 Friday and 99.23 Thursday. 

 

The Indian unit took no cues from US President Donald Trump Friday rolling back tariffs on more than 200 food products, including staples such as coffee, beef, bananas and orange juice. However, dealers expect importers to step in though dollar purchases, fearing depreciation in the rupee amid looming uncertainty over the India-US trade deal, which will exert downward pressure on the Indian currency. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 88.50 and 88.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 88.80. (Pratiksha)

---

India Rupee - Asia FX:Most dn on fading hope of US rate cut; Taiwan dlr flat

 

NEW DELHI – Most Asian currencies fell against the dollar Monday as the dollar index rose on growing expectations of no rate cut by the US Federal Reserve next month, following recent weak economic data and comments by Fed officials. A fall in Asian stocks also weighed on the units. 

 

On Friday, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack cast doubt on the need to cut rates next month. "It's not obvious that monetary policy should be doing more right now," Hammack said. 

 

Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in a 45.8% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Market participants await the release of a slew of US economic data following the ending of the government's shutdown, for more clarity on the US Federal Reserve's rate decision in December. The key September's nonfarm payrolls report is due on Thursday. At 0910 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.44, up from 99.27 Friday and 99.23 Thursday. 

 

The South Korean won fell 0.4% against the greenback, one of the worst hit among its peers. Hyundai Motor Group will invest $86.47 billion in South Korea from 2026 to 2030, the company said on Sunday, after Seoul finalised a trade deal reducing US tariffs on South Korean autos to 15% from 25%. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung met with Hyundai Motor Group Chairman Euisun Chung and other business leaders on Sunday. This was two days after details were released on a trade deal with the US, which includes South Korea's promise to invest $350 billion in US strategic sectors.

 

The Indonesian rupiah fell 0.2% against the dollar. Indonesia's financial regulator will gradually raise the minimum free float requirement for listed firms to 25% from 7.5%, in order to improve market liquidity, reports said Saturday.

 

The Chinese yuan fell 0.1%. China's Finance Minister Lan Foan said in an interview with Xinhua News Agency on Saturday that the country will strengthen fiscal policy over the next five years. Further, China's cabinet pledged on Friday to boost consumption by better aligning supply with demand and relying on consumption upgrades to drive industrial upgrades. 

 

Bucking the trend, the Taiwan dollar was flat against the US unit after the US Treasury and Taiwan's central bank on Friday agreed to continue close consultations on macroeconomic and foreign exchange rate matters and both pledged to avoid manipulating the value of their currencies to gain a competitive advantage. Intervention "should be reserved for combating excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates, with the expectation that this tool would be considered equally appropriate for addressing excessively volatile or disorderly depreciation or appreciation," the joint statement said. 

 

The Malaysian ringgit fell 0.4% against the dollar and the Philippine peso fell 0.2%. The Thai baht was steady. (Pratiksha)  

---

India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Nov 17

 

NEW DELHI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Monday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	88.75	88.50
Private-sector bank	88.80	88.55
Foreign bank	88.81	88.55
Brokerage firm	88.85	88.55
Brokerage firm	88.80	88.40
Brokerage firm	88.90	88.40
Brokerage firm	88.80	88.60

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Pratiksha)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2025. All rights reserved.