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Informist, Wednesday, Nov. 12, 2025

 

By Rati Chaphekar

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended lower against the dollar Wednesday as importers bought dollars, wary of further depreciation in the Indian unit, dealers said. However, some state-owned banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, which limited the fall in the domestic currency.

 

"The central bank is artificially tampering the market," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Every day when inflows from the RBI reduce, the rupee immediately starts to fall. I think this is no longer sustainable now. We should see 89.00 (a dollar) level in the next 5–6 days."

 

After trading in a range of 10 paise during the day, the rupee ended at 88.6300 a dollar, down from 88.5675 Tuessday. Other Asian currencies also fell 0.1-0.4% against the greenback, with the Philippine peso being hit the worst.

 

The rupee started the day lower against the greenback, weighed down by persistent demand for dollars from importers who wanted to make the most of the lower dollar level, dealers said. Tuesday, persistent dollar sales by the RBI pushed the rupee 10 paise higher to the day's high of 88.5175 a dollar, its highest level in two weeks. At this level, the dollar was nearly 30 paise cheaper than the all-time low of 88.8025 it had touched on Sept. 30 and this was driving demand.

 

The dollar index fell after data released Tuesday showed US firms shed more than 11,000 jobs a week through late October. Though an ADP report last week estimated the US overall added 42,000 jobs in October compared to the month earlier, the new estimates show how hiring trends are evolving on a week-to-week basis--in this case pointing to further weakening in a labour market being closely monitored by Federal Reserve policymakers.

 

The data boosted expectations of further reductions in the US central bank's benchmark interest rate. The Fed has reduced its policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point at each of its last two meetings. At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.63, higher than 99.46 Tuesday and broadly unchanged from 99.62 Monday.

 

Meanwhile, investors look forward to the end of the prolonged US government shutdown, which is likely anytime soon. The US Senate approved a compromise Monday to end the shutdown. It now heads to the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, where Speaker Mike Johnson has said he expects to get it passed Wednesday and send it to President Donald Trump to sign into law.

 

For a brief period in the day, the rupee erased some of its losses as public-sector banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the RBI, and a fall in the dollar index offset the impact of importers' dollar purchases. The central bank likely sold dollars around 88.66-a-dollar level to prevent the Indian unit from falling past the key support of 88.80 a dollar, a level the apex bank has strongly defended since late September, dealers said.

 

The Indian unit was also supported by comments by Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal Tuesday on the India-US trade deal talks, dealers said. "We are working for a good trade deal in the interest of India," Goyal said. "At the same time, India is not going to compromise the interests of our farmers, fishermen, workers, labour, and our dairy... We are working on a fair, equitable, and balanced trade deal."

 

The Indian unit was also supported by a rise in domestic equities, according to dealers. Wednesday, the Nifty 50 and the Sensex both ended 0.7% higher.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.6300	88.6250	88.5650	88.6600	88.5675
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	193.49	194.49	194.63	193.07	191.70

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended higher Wednesday as weak private-sector US jobs data fuelled expectation of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve at its December meeting, dealers said. Forwards of a currency pair are reflective of the interest rate differential between the two countries.

 

Lack of forward dollar sales by the RBI to neutralise the impact of its spot interventions and avert pushing out rupee liquidity also supported the premiums, some dealers said. For the past few weeks, the central bank has been actively selling dollars, primarily for long-tenure forward delivery.

 

Market participants were also awaiting the release of India's inflation data for October for cues on the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee's decision at its meeting next month. CPI inflation fell to a record low of 0.25% in October.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.17%, up from the previous close of 2.16%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 193.49 paise, up from Tuesday's close of 191.70 paise.

 

OUTLOOK

Thursday, the rupee will take cues from the movement in the dollar index and other Asian currencies, dealers said. However, dealers expect the RBI to continue intervening actively in both the non-deliverable forwards and the spot markets to hold the rupee above 88.80 a dollar. They also expect importers to continue buying dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee rate, which would exert downward pressure on the local unit.

 

Market participants will continue to closely monitor developments related to the India-US trade talks. "Importers are hedging actively with the trade talks still not resulting in any concrete outcome," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Everybody is waiting for final clarity on the trade deal rather than just talks." 

 

The rupee is expected to move in a range of 88.40 to 88.80 against the dollar. Immediate technical support for the rupee is pegged at 88.80 per dollar.

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India Rupee - World FX: Yen falls on PM Takaichi's remarks; dollar index down

 

	AT 1430 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3149	1.3165	1.3129	1.3147
EUR/USD	1.1585	1.1589	1.1570	1.1581
NZD/USD	0.5655	0.5660	0.5646	0.5654
AUD/USD	0.6538	0.6541	0.6516	0.6527
USD/JPY	154.7030	154.7870	154.0550	154.1480
USD/CAD	1.4005	1.4020	1.4004	1.4018
EUR/JPY	179.2230	179.2655	178.4850	178.5500
CHF/USD	1.2508	1.2512	1.2482	1.2489
EUR/CHF	0.9260	0.9279	0.9260	0.9271

 

MUMBAI – The yen fell 0.3% against the greenback after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said she "strongly hopes" the central bank achieves inflation driven by wages rather than mainly through rising food costs, denting the hopes of a rate hike at Bank of Japan's next meeting. Takaichi said Japan still faced the risk of returning to deflation, which would prompt households to hold off spending, hurt corporate profits, and discourage companies from raising wages.

 

Meanwhile, Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama Wednesday said she would not deny that the negative aspects of a weak yen on the economy have become more pronounced than the positive ones. "Recently, we have been seeing one-sided and rapid movements in the foreign exchange market," Katayama said.

 

The pound sterling was steady against the greenback. Data released Tuesday showed UK's labour market softened in the September quarter as the unemployment rate jumped and wage growth slowed, strengthening expectations of an interest rate cut by Bank of England next month. The unemployment rate rose to 5.0% from 4.8%, its highest level since the December quarter of 2020.

 

The Australian dollar rose 0.1% against the greenback. In an interview to Reuters Wednesday, Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said that there was increasing debate about whether the current cash rate of 3.6% is restrictive enough to keep inflation in check, adding that the question is critical for the policy outlook. The current judgment that monetary policy is mildly restrictive is central to the expectations that inflation would still slow in the economy, he said.

 

The dollar index fell after data released Tuesday showed US companies shed more than 11,000 jobs a week through late October. Though report from private sector firm ADP last week estimated the US overall added 42,000 jobs in October over September, the new estimates show how hiring trends are evolving on a weekly basis. Last week's data points toward further weakening in the labour market, which is being closely monitored by Federal Reserve policymakers.

 

The data boosted expectations of a further cut in the US central bank's benchmark interest rate. The Fed has reduced its policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point at each of its last two meetings. At 1430 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.49, higher than 99.46 Tuesday but lower than 99.62 Monday.

 

The euro and the New Zealand dollar were steady against the greenback while the Swiss franc fell 0.1%.  (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Premium hits 2-wk high on US rate cut bets post weak jobs data

 

	AT 1335 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.6125	88.6250	88.5650	88.6600	88.5675
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	194.35	194.49	194.63	193.71	191.70

 

NEW DELHI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose to a near two-week high Wednesday as weak private-sector US jobs data fuelled expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its December meeting, dealers said. Forwards of a currency pair are reflective of the interest rate differential between the two countries.

 

"Ever since the chances of US shutdown lifting have come in the picture, forwards have started tracking US rates more closely," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. 

 

US firms shed more than 11,000 jobs a week through late October, payroll processor ADP said on Tuesday. While an ADP report last week showed the US overall added 42,000 jobs in October compared with the month before, the new estimates show how hiring trends are changing on a week-to-week basis, pointing to further softening in the labour market. 

 

The weak jobs data led to expectations that the Fed will deliver another 25 basis point rate cut next month, weighing down US Treasury yields. However, traders are still awaiting an imminent reopening of the US government for further clues as a backlog of economic data is set to be released. Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in a 67.9% chance of a 25-bps cut at the December meeting, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

 

Lack of forward dollar sales by the Reserve Bank of India to neutralise the imapct of its spot interventions and avert pushing out rupee liquidity also supported the premiums, some dealers said. The central bank likely sold dollars in the spot market on Wednesday, to prevent the rupee from falling past the 88.80-per-dollar mark, according to dealers. Since the last few weeks, the central bank has been actively selling dollars, primarily for long-tenure forward delivery. 

 

Market participants also await the release of India's inflation data for October, due at 1600 IST, for cues on the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee's decision at its meeting next month. CPI inflation is expected to have fallen to a record low of 0.3% in October, according to an Informist poll of 12 economists.

 

At 1335 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.18%, up from the previous close of 2.16%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 194.35 paise, against Tuesday's close of 191.70 paise.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: In thin band; RBI's sales, dlr index fall offset importer buys

 

	AT 1255 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.6350	88.6250	88.5650	88.6600	88.5675

 

MUMBAI – The rupee traded in a thin band against the dollar as sales of the greenback by public sector banks, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, and a fall in the dollar index offset the impact of importers' dollar purchases, dealers said. "Along with RBI's selling, other factors like a fall in dollar index and hopes of a trade deal are also playing out," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "But buying pressure is there. Otherwise, the rupee would have sustained 88.58-88.59 (a dollar) level."

 

The central bank likely sold dollars around 88.66 a dollar level to prevent the Indian unit from falling past the key support of 88.80 a dollar, a level the apex bank has strongly defended since late September, dealers said. The Indian currency hit a lifetime low of 88.8025 on Sept. 30. 

 

A fall in the dollar index also supported the local unit, dealers said. At 1255 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.52, higher than 99.46 Tuesday but lower than 99.62 Monday. 

 

The Indian unit was also supported after comments by Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal Tuesday on India-US trade deal talks, dealers said. "We are working for a good trade deal in the interest of India. At the same time, India is not going to compromise the interests of our farmers, fishermen, workers, labour, and our dairy... We are working on a fair, equitable and balanced trade deal," he said. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 88.40 and 88.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 88.80.  (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Nov 12

 

NEW DELHI – At 1130 IST, the rupee was at 88.6200 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 88.6250 a dollar, against the previous close of 88.5675 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	88.80	88.75	88.50	88.40
Private-sector bank	89.00	88.80	88.40	88.00
Brokerage firm	88.80	88.70	88.40	87.70
Brokerage firm	89.00	88.80	88.50	88.30

 

(Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Falls as importers buy dollars; RBI expected to sell dollars

 

	AT 0940 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.6350	88.6250	88.6150	88.6600	88.5675

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell against the dollar Wednesday as banks rushed to buy dollars for importers who wanted to make the most of lower dollar levels, dealers said. "Yesterday (Tuesday), surprisingly, the rupee went in the 88.50 (a dollar) range," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Because of that, huge buying pressure (of dollars) from importers is there to book profits." At current levels, the dollar is nearly 30 paise cheaper than the all-time low of 88.8025 it had chalked up on Sept. 30 and this is driving demand.

 

On Tuesday, persistent dollar sales by the Reserve Bank of India pushed the rupee 10 paise higher to the day's high of 88.5175 a dollar, the highest level in the past two weeks.

 

The dollar index fell after data released Tuesday showed US firms shed more than 11,000 jobs a week through late October. Though report from private sector firm ADP last week estimated the US overall added 42,000 jobs in October over September, the new estimates show how hiring trends are evolving on a weekly basis. Last week's data points towards further weakening in the labour market, which is being closely monitored by Federal Reserve policymakers.

 

The data boosted expectations of a further cut in the US central bank's benchmark interest rate. The Fed reduced its policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point at each of its last two meetings. At 0940 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.52, higher than 99.46 Tuesday but lower than 99.62 Monday. 

 

The comment by Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal Tuesday on India-US trade deal talks did not impact the risk sentiment of market participants, dealers said. "We are working for a good trade deal in the interest of India. At the same time, India is not going to compromise the interests of our farmers, fishermen, workers, labour, and our dairy... We are working on a fair equitable and balanced trade deal," Goyal said Tuesday. 

 

Dealers expect the central bank to step in and sell dollars if the rupee comes under further pressure. Since September, the central bank has actively and regularly intervened in the currency market to prevent the rupee from falling past 88.80 a dollar.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 88.40 and 88.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 88.80.  (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed ahead of likely end to US shutdown; yuan steady

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies traded on a mixed note against the dollar Wednesday as market participants looked forward to a potential end to the proloned US government shutdown, which is due anytime soon. The US Senate approved a compromise Monday to end the shutdown. It next heads to the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, where Speaker Mike Johnson has said he expects to pass it Wednesday and send it to US President Donald Trump to sign into law. 

 

The dollar index fell after data released Tuesday showed US firms shed more than 11,000 jobs a week through late October, which supported the Asian units. Though an ADP report last week estimated the US overall added 42,000 jobs in October compared to the month earlier, the new estimates show how hiring trends are evolving on a week-to-week basis – in this case pointing to further weakening in a labour market being closely monitored by Federal Reserve policymakers.

 

The data boosted expectations of further reductions in the US central bank's benchmark interest rate. The Fed reduced its policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point at each of its last two meetings. At 0840 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.53, against 99.46 Tuesday and 99.62 Monday. 

 

The South Korean won fell 0.4% against the greenback even though most board members of South Korea's central bank expressed caution about further policy easing as they kept interest rates unchanged at their last meeting on Oct. 23. The Bank of Korea voted six-one to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.50% last month amid worries about an overheated housing market and a weak won, though four members left the door open for a rate cut in the next three months.

 

The Chinese yuan traded steady against the dollar. China's central bank Tuesday said it would maintain "appropriately loose" monetary policy and keep liquidity ample while improving its policy transmission, as the economy still faces risks and challenges. The People's Bank of China will keep liquidity ample, maintain prices at reasonable levels and lower the costs of banks' liability and social financing, it said in its third-quarter monetary policy implementation report. The Taiwan dollar fell 0.2% against the greenback.

 

The Indonesian rupiah and the Thai baht fell 0.2% against the dollar while the Philippines peso traded steady. The Malaysian ringgit rose 0.3% against the greenback.  (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Nov 12

 

MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Wednesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	88.70	88.40
Private-sector bank	88.80	88.50
Private-sector bank	88.70	88.40
Private-sector bank	88.75	88.53
Private-sector bank	88.70	88.50
Foreign bank	88.80	88.40
Brokerage firm	88.90	88.40
Brokerage firm	88.70	88.45

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Rati Chaphekar)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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