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Informist, Monday, Nov. 10, 2025

 

By Rati Chaphekar

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended the day broadly steady against the dollar amid lacklustre volume as the downward pressure from importers' dollar purchases was neutralised by the Reserve Bank of India's likely dollar sales, dealers said. "There was not much activity in the market today. Whatever bids (dollar buying) were there, were also somewhat offset by them (RBI). Rupee didn't move much," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. 

 

After trading in a tight range of just seven paise during the day, the rupee settled at 88.6975 a dollar, broadly unchanged from its previou close of 88.6600 a dollar. Other Asian currencies rose 0.1-0.5% against the greenback, with the South Korean won gaining the most. The rupee performed the worst among its peers. 

 

The Indian unit also began the day steady against the dollar primarily as traders refrained from placing fresh bets as they expected the Reserve Bank of India to step in through dollar sales at the present dollar-rupee levels, just like last week.

 

The RBI has put up a strong defence of the 88.80-a-dollar level since September. Last week, the central bank heavily intervened in both the offshore non-deliverable forwards market and the spot market last week, keeping the domestic currency pinned above the 88.80 a dollar mark. The Indian currency hit a lifetime low of 88.8025 on Sept. 30. "Everyday is the same," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "We expected some inflows (of dollars) from foreign investors because of Lenskart's IPO (initial public offering last week), but didn't see anything." 

 

The dollar index was broadly lower, after touching a near five-month high last week, which provided some support to the rupee, dealers said. The index fell after a University of Michigan survey released Friday showed worries about the US government shutdown surged in the early part of November, pushing consumer sentiment to its lowest in more than three years and just off its worst level ever. The consumer sentiment index dropped to 50.3 this month, the lowest level since June 2022, against a final reading of 53.6 in October. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index to dip to 53.2.

 

However, the fall in the dollar index was limited amid hopes of an end to the prolonged US gvernment shutdown as the US Senate on Sunday appeared poised to move forward with a measure aimed at reopening the federal government. At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.46, lower than 99.56 Friday and 99.70 Thursday. The index rose to 100.36 on Wednesday, its highest level since May 29.

 

Meanwhile, importers bought dollars, in fear the Indian unit may depreciate in the near term, which kept the Indian unit under downward pressure, dealers said. Some banks also likely bought the greenback on behalf of foreign portfolio investors, looking to pull out funds from Indian markets, they said. So far in November, FPIs have withdrawn almost $600 million from the domestic markets, on a net basis. 

 

However, some state-owned banks stepped in to sell dollars, likely on behalf of the RBI, which limited losses for the rupee, dealers said. The central bank likely sold dollars around 88.70 a dollar level to prevent the Indian unit from falling past the key 88.80 mark, they said. However, the dollar sales by the RBI were not very aggressive in nature. 

 

Volume in the currency market was also lower than usual during the day as most traders avoided placing fresh bets due to the RBI's active intervention in recent times, dealers said. "There were not much fresh cues today. Also, such narrow range keeps traders away from trading," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. 

 

The Indian unit was also supported by a rise in domestic equities, according to dealers. Monday, the Nifty 50 ended 0.3% higher and the Sensex ended 0.4% higher. 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.6975	88.6575	88.6450	88.7100	88.6600
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	190.15	188.72	190.76	188.72	190.15

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended steady as traders refrained from placing fresh bets amid lack of signficant cues, dealers said. However, some dealers speculated that the RBI might have sold dollars for long-tenure forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions and avert pushing out rupee liquidity. This likely kept the forward premiums under downward pressure, they said. Considering spot dollar sales push out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity.

 

US Treasury yields ended broadly unchanged Friday amid lack of cues, with the US government shutdown delaying the release of key economic data. Forwards of a currency pair are reflective of the interest rate differential between the two countries.

 

Market participants now await the release of India's inflation data for October on Wednesday for cues on the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee's decision at its meeting next month. CPI inflation is expected to have fallen to a record low of 0.3% in October due to a high base effect, lower food prices, and a reduction in the goods and services tax, according to an Informist poll of 12 economists.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.14%, unchanged from the previous close. On an absolute basis, the premium was 190.15 paise, unchanged against Friday's close.

 

OUTLOOK

On Tuesday, the rupee will take cues from the movement in the dollar index and other Asian currencies, dealers said. "Now the US shutdown will end anytime," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "That will give some boost to the dollar and put rupee under pressure. But again, losses will be limited at 88.80 (a dollar) as RBI will come in."

 

However, dealers expect the RBI to continue intervening actively in the currency market, both through the non-deliverable forwards and spot route, to hold the rupee above 88.80 a dollar. They also expect importers to continue buying dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee rate, which would exert downward pressure on the local unit.

 

Market participants will continue to closely monitor developments related to India-US trade talks. The rupee is expected to move in a range of 88.40 to 88.80 against the dollar. Immediate technical support for the rupee is pegged at 88.80 per dollar.

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India Rupee - World FX: Australian dlr up as hopes of rate cut fade; yen dn

 

	AT 1500 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3172	1.3184	1.3137	1.3159
EUR/USD	1.1568	1.1583	1.1542	1.1568
NZD/USD	0.5644	0.5648	0.5621	0.5626
AUD/USD	0.6531	0.6535	0.6490	0.6489
USD/JPY	154.1730	154.2320	153.4090	153.4200
USD/CAD	1.4014	1.4047	1.4001	1.4046
EUR/JPY	178.3500	178.4600	177.3370	177.5226
CHF/USD	1.2412	1.2426	1.2389	1.2412
EUR/CHF	0.9319	0.9326	0.9311	0.9318

 

MUMBAI – The Australian dollar jumped 0.6% against the dollar after Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser's comments on Monday dampened hopes of rate cuts in the near term. Hauser said the country's monetary policy faced an unusual challenge as the economy began recovering last year with demand still above potential output, suggesting little room for near-term policy easing. 

 

"That can still be consistent with bringing inflation back to target over the medium term. But achieving that goal will require policy to be restrictive enough to keep shrinking the gap over that period," Hauser said. The central bank left interest rates unchanged at 3.6% last week as policymakers turned more cautious about further easing after three rate cuts this year due to a surge in inflation and strong consumer demand. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.3% against the greenback.

 

The Japanese yen fell 0.4% against the greenback after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi Monday renewed her stance for the Bank of Japan to go slow on interest rate hikes, despite most central bank policymakers signalling resumption of monetary tightening sooner rather than later. "I hope the BoJ (Bank of Japan) guides appropriate monetary policy to stably and sustainably achieve 2% inflation driven not by cost-push factors, but wage increases," Takaichi said.

 

Meanwhile, a summary of opinions at the central bank's October meeting Monday showed that Bank of Japan policymakers saw a strengthening case to raise interest rates in the near term, with some seeing the need to ensure companies' wage-hike momentum should not be disturbed. Of the 13 opinions on monetary policy from the nine-member board, eight hinted at a need to raise interest rates soon or laid out specific conditions to hike borrowing costs in the near-term horizon, the summary showed.

 

The dollar index fell further in European trade after a University of Michigan survey released Friday showed worries about the US government shutdown surged in the early part of November, pushing consumer sentiment to its lowest in more than three years and just off its worst level ever. The consumer sentiment index dropped to 50.3 this month, the lowest level since June 2022, from a final reading of 53.6 in October. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index would dip to 53.2.

 

At 1500 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.46, slightly higher than 99.56 Friday but down from 99.70 Thursday. The index rose to 100.36 on Wednesday, its highest level since May 29. Tracking the fall in the dollar index, the euro and the pound sterling rose 0.1% against the greenback, while the Swiss franc traded steady.  (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: 1-yr forward premium steady in absence of significant triggers

 

	AT 1415 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.7000	88.6575	88.6450	88.7025	88.6600
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	190.15	188.72	190.76	188.72	190.15

 

NEW DELHI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium was steady Monday as traders refrained from placing fresh bets amid lack of signficant cues, dealers said. "There is not much happening, both on the domestic and global side. Spot (rupee) is also range-bound. So, the market is quiet," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

However, some dealers speculated that the Reserve Bank of India might have sold dollars for long-tenure forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions and avert pushing out rupee liquidity. This likely kept the forward premiums under downward pressure, they said. The central bank likely sold dollars in the spot market Monday to prevent the rupee from falling past the key support of 88.80 a dollar, dealers said. Considering spot dollar sales push out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity.

 

US Treasury yields ended broadly unchanged Friday amid lack of cues, with the US government shutdown delaying the release of key economic data. Forwards of a currency pair are reflective of the interest rate differential between the two countries.

 

Market participants now await the release of India's inflation data for October on Wednesday for cues on the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee's decision at its meeting next month. CPI inflation is expected to have fallen to a record low of 0.3% in October due to a high base effect, lower food prices, and a reduction in the goods and services tax, according to an Informist poll of 12 economists.

 

At 1415 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.14%, unchanged from the previous close. On an absolute basis, the premium was 190.15 paise, unchanged against Friday's close. (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: In thin band; RBI's likely dlr sales offset importers' hedging

 

	AT 1330 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.6800	88.6575	88.6450	88.6950	88.6600

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee remained in a tight range against the dollar as the impact of importers' dollar purchases was offset by state-owned banks' dollar sales, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. So far Monday, the Indian unit has moved in a range of just 5 paise. "It is the same old rangebound market," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Volumes are dull. RBI is also just selling (dollars) mildly because of that."

 

The central bank likely sold dollars at 88.69 a dollar level to prevent the Indian unit from falling past the key support of 88.80 a dollar, a level the apex bank has strongly defended since late September, dealers said. The RBI's dollar sales, however, were not very aggressive in nature, they said. 

 

Dealers said volume in the currency market was lacklustre as most traders avoided placing fresh bets due to the RBI's active intervention in recent times. "When the rupee is trading in such a tight range for multiple days, traders will naturally stop taking positions," a dealer at another state-owned bank said. 

 

Meanwhile, importers bought dollars, in fear the Indian unit may depreciate in the near-term, which kept the Indian unit under downward pressure. Some banks also likely bought the greenback on behalf of foreign portfolio investors looking to pull out funds from Indian markets, they said. So far in November, FPIs have withdrawn almost $600 million from the domestic markets, on a net basis.  

 

A broadly weaker dollar index also provided some support to the Indian unit, according to dealers. At 1330 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.57, steady from 99.56 Friday, but down from 99.70 Thursday. The index rose to 100.36 on Wednesday, its highest level since May 29. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 88.50 and 88.70 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 88.80. (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Nov 10

 

MUMBAI – At 1145 IST, the rupee was at 88.6650 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 88.6575 a dollar, against the previous close of 88.6600 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
Private-sector bank	88.90	88.80	88.40	88.00
Brokerage firm	88.90	88.80	88.40	88.30
Brokerage firm	89.00	88.80	88.30	87.50

 

(Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Steady as RBI intervention eyed; fall in dollar index supports

 

	AT 0934 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.6800	88.6575	88.6575	88.6950	88.6600

 

MUMBAI – The rupee was largely steady against the dollar Monday as traders refrained from placing fresh bets as they expect the Reserve Bank of India to step in through dollar sales around the current dollar-rupee levels, similar to last week. "The central bank is always present at 88.75-88.80 a dollar level," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Unless it (RBI) backs off, we will continue to see a range-bound movement in the market."

 

The Indian currency was confined in the 88.40-88.80 range last week, as the central bank intervened in both the non-deliverable forwards and spot markets. Since September, the central bank has actively intervened in the currency market to prevent the rupee from falling past 88.80 a dollar. The Indian currency hit a lifetime low of 88.8025 on Sept. 30. 

 

"The RBI's defence of the 88.80 level has now become a visible line in the sand, keeping USD/INR (dollar-rupee) capped, with strong resistance seen around 88.80–89.00 and support near 88.40. This indicates a short-term consolidation within this range," Amit Pabari, managing director at CR Forex, said in a note. 

 

Meanwhile, the dollar index was broadly lower Monday, after hitting a near five-month high last week, which provided some support to the rupee, dealers said. The index fell after data showed US consumer sentiment declined to its lowest in more than three years. However, the fall in the dollar index was limited as Senate Majority Leader John Thune Saturday said bipartisan talks in the US Senate to end the longest ever federal shutdown had taken a positive turn. 

 

At 0934 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.64, slightly higher than 99.56 Friday, but down from 99.70 Thursday. The index rose to 100.36 on Wednesday, its highest level since May 29. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 88.40 and 88.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 88.80. (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most up on growing hope of US govt shutdown ending

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies rose against the dollar Monday, tracking gains in domestic equities amid hope of an end to the prolonged US gvernment shutdown as the US Senate on Sunday appeared poised to move forward with a measure aimed at reopening the federal government. 

 

The shutdown, now in its seventh week, is the longest ever government shutdown in US history. The shutdown has halted the release of key economic data, which is crucial for navigating the interest rate trajectory of the Federal Reserve. Top Senate Democrat Chuck Schumer on Friday offered a new plan to Republican lawmakers that would allow the US government to reopen from a shutdown that began Oct. 1. However, Republicans quickly dismissed Schumer's proposal. 

 

The dollar index was broadly down Monday, after hitting a near five-month high last week, which supported the Asian units. The index fell after a University of Michigan survey released Friday showed worries about the US government shutdown surged in the early part of November, pushing consumer sentiment to its lowest in more than three years and just off its worst level ever. The consumer sentiment index dropped to 50.3 this month, the lowest level since June 2022, from a final reading of 53.6 in October. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index would dip to 53.2.

 

At 0855 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.66, slightly higher than 99.56 Friday but down from 99.70 Thursday. The index rose to 100.36 on Wednesday, its highest level since May 29.

 

The South Korean won rose 0.5% against the dollar, the most among its peers. Both the Philippine peso and Indonesian rupiah rose 0.1% and the Malaysian ringgit rose 0.2%. The Chinese yuan traded steady against the greenback even after data released Sunday showed China's consumer price index reading for October at 0.2%, compared with analysts' expectations of zero, or flat growth on year. October's reading was the strongest since January this year, and the first positive growth in consumer prices since June. On a month-on-month basis as well, CPI rose 0.2%, compared with expectations of zero growth in a Reuters poll. The Thai baht also traded steady against the dollar. 

 

Bucking the trend, the Taiwan dollar fell 0.1% against the dollar even after data Friday showed Taiwan's exports grew at their fastest pace in nearly 16 years in October, setting a record as booming demand for chips and artificial intelligence technology outpaces the effects of US tariffs on the island's goods. Exports jumped 49.7% in October from a year earlier to $61.80 billion, a record amount in dollars and the fastest growth since the 57.7% logged in May 2010.  (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Nov 10

 

MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Monday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	88.85	88.50
State-owned bank	88.75	88.55
State-owned bank	88.80	88.40
Private-sector bank	88.80	88.50
Private-sector bank	88.80	88.55
Private-sector bank	88.73	88.50
Foreign bank	88.80	88.50
Brokerage firm	88.90	88.40
Brokerage firm	88.76	88.55
Brokerage firm	88.75	88.55

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Rati Chaphekar)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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