More Stories

Informist, Thursday, Nov. 6, 2025

 

By Rati Chaphekar

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended off the day's high against the dollar Thursday as importers bought dollars, noting the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, dealers said. The Indian unit had got a boost early in the trade as some public-sector banks sold dollars in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, before the spot market opened, dealers said.

 

"More or less same pattern has continued (for the rupee) since the past week," a dealer at a public-sector bank said. "Unless some big buying (of dollars) comes, there is no chance this level (88.80 a dollar) will break in near future."

 

After touching a high of 88.5200 a dollar earlier in the day, the Indian unit ended the day at 88.6125 a dollar, against 88.6550 a dollar on Tuesday. The local unit traded in a range of 14 paise during the day.  

 

Following Tuesday's trend, the rupee opened the day higher against the dollar as some public-sector banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the RBI, in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market, right before the spot market opened, dealers said. The central bank had intervened heavily in the NDF market on Tuesday as well, to prevent the rupee from breaching the key 88.80 level.

 

"Every time we have seen that central bank marks one or the other level (for intervening)," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "Earlier it was 88.30 (a dollar) now its 88.80 (a dollar), tomorrow it can be 89.20 (a dollar). It is their way of controlling volatility in the market."

 

However, gains in the Indian unit were short-lived, as banks rushed to buy dollars on behalf of importers, who wanted to make the most of the relatively lower dollar/rupee levels. But, the dollar purchases were not very aggressive in nature.

 

Dealers said volume in the currency market was subdued as market participants avoided placing fresh bets due to uncertainty about the domestic currency's movement going ahead because of the central bank's active intervention in the market of late. "Volumes were dull from both sides (buying and selling)," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Everyone looks a bit confused, all thanks to RBI." The rupee was stuck in 5 paise range of 88.60-88.65 for most of the day.

 

However, some dealers speculated this was because the central bank likely sold dollars in the spot market as well, to prevent the Indian unit from depreciation. The central bank has been steadfastly intervening in the spot market since September, ensuring the local unit does not move beyond the 88.80 level.

 

Market participants' opinion about the central bank's current intervention strategy is divergent. While some don't find the RBI's actions unusual, saying that the central bank is only trying to prevent excessive volatility in the rupee, others believe RBI has held the 88.80 a dollar level for far too long now.

 

Earlier in the day, rupee also came under downward pressure as the dollar index rose to an over five-month high Wednesday after data showed US private payrolls rebounded in October. The US ADP National Employment Report Wednesday showed US private payrolls rose by 42,000 in October, after declining by 29,000 in September, exceeding expectations of a rise by 28,000, according to a Reuters poll of economists.

 

However, the dollar index came off the five-month high on Thursday, falling below the 100 mark during European trade, which gave some support to the Indian unit, dealers said. At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.98, down from 100.16 Wednesday and 100.20 Tuesday. The index had Wednesday risen to 100.36, its highest level since May 29. 

 

The Indian unit was also weighed down by a fall in domestic equities, according to dealers. Thursday, the Nifty 50 ended 0.3% lower and the Sensex ended 0.2% lower. 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.6125	88.5200	88.5100	88.6575	88.6550
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	188.55	189.05	189.23	187.87	191.67

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended at an over 11-week low as US Treasury yields jumped up after economic data Wednesday showed continued resilience in the world's largest economy, dealers said. The 10-year US bond yield rose to 4.17% Wednesday from 4.10% Tuesday.

 

The solid economic data dampened expectations of another rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in December. Forwards of a currency pair are reflective of the interest rate differential between two countries. Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in only a 62.5% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

 

Most market participants expect forward premiums to remain under downward pressure due to uncertainty over the next rate cut in the US and the RBI's active buy-sell swaps to neutralise its spot interventions and avert pushing out rupee liquidity. The RBI likely sold forward dollars for maturity in 12-18 months in the last few weeks, dealers said.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.13%, against the previous close of 2.15%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 188.55 paise, against 191.67 paise Tuesday. 

 

OUTLOOK

On Friday, the rupee will take cues from the movement of the dollar and other Asian currencies, dealers said. "The dollar index looks in a consolidation mode amid mix influences from the US data released yesterday and the US shutdown which has now become a cause of concern," said Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, in a note.

 

Dealers expect the RBI to continue intervening actively in the currency market, both through the NDF and spot route, to hold the rupee above 88.80 a dollar.

 

Market participants will continue to closely monitor developments related to India-US trade talks. Dealers also expect importers to continue buying dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee rate, which would exert pressure on the local unit.

 

The rupee is expected to move in a range of 88.40 to 88.80 against the dollar Friday. Immediate technical resistance for the rupee is pegged at 88.30 per dollar.

---

India Rupee - World FX: Pound sterling up before BoE policy outcome; yen up

 

	AT 1430 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3082	1.3087	1.3047	1.3050
EUR/USD	1.1520	1.1523	1.1492	1.1491
NZD/USD	0.5665	0.5669	0.5651	0.5662
AUD/USD	0.6515	0.6518	0.6497	0.6505
USD/JPY	153.6000	154.1380	153.5330	154.0980
USD/CAD	1.4093	1.4110	1.4091	1.4107
EUR/JPY	176.9300	177.2150	176.8469	177.0800
CHF/USD	1.2368	1.2372	1.2339	1.2340
EUR/CHF	0.9314	0.9319	0.9304	0.9310

 

India Rupee - World FX: Pound sterling up before BoE policy outcome; yen up

 

MUMBAI – The pound sterling rose 0.1% against the greenback ahead of the outcome of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting later in the day. Most investors expect no change in interest rates by the central bank before this month's government budget, but some analysts say inflation has cooled enough for a cut. 

 

The euro rose 0.2% against the greenback after data late Wednesday showed the euro zone economy grew at its fastest rate since May 2023 in October, breaking out of the muted growth trend seen earlier this year, as services sector activity accelerated and demand conditions improved. The HCOB Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by S&P Global, climbed to 52.5 in October from 51.2 in September, marking the 10th consecutive month of growth and reaching its highest level in 29 months.

 

The Japanese yen rose 0.3% against the dollar as minutes of the Bank of Japan's September meeting, released on Wednesday, showed a growing number of policymakers at the central bank believed that conditions were falling in place for interest rates to rise, with two members advocating an immediate increase. At the two-day meeting through Sept. 19, the nine-member board kept interest rates steady at 0.5%, turning down proposals by two hawkish members to raise borrowing costs to 0.75%.

 

However, government data Thursday showed Japan's real wages fell for the ninth consecutive month in September as resurgent inflation outgrew nominal pay, highlighting the wage-price gap that complicates the Bank of Japan's rate hike plans. Further, data early Thursday showed Japan's services sector extended its robust growth in October, despite the slowest growth in new orders in 16 months and a resurgence in inflationary pressures. The S&P Global final Japan services purchasing managers' index slipped slightly to 53.1 in October from 53.3 in September, the seventh consecutive month above the 50.0 mark, which separates growth from contraction. 

 

The dollar index came off its over five-month high due to a recovery in investors' appetite for riskier assets. The index had hit an over five-month high on Wednesday following robust economic data in the US. The US ADP National Employment Report showed employment rose by 42,000 jobs in October after declining by 29,000 in September. The October print exceeded expectations of a 28,000 gain, according to a Reuters poll.

 

At 1430 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 100.00, down from 100.16 Wednesday and 100.20 Tuesday. The index rose to 100.36 on Wednesday, its highest level since May 29. 

 

The Australian dollar rose 0.1% against the dollar while the New Zealand dollar fell 0.1%. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Christian Hawkesby said on Thursday that deterioration in the country's labour market was in line with the bank's expectations. This was after data this week showed the jobless rate in the country in Jul-Sept rose to the highest level since 2016. (Rati Chaphekar)

---

India Rupee: Remains off high as importers buy dollars; volume lacklustre

 

	AT 1317 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.6075	88.5200	88.5100	88.6350	88.6550

 

 

MUMBAI – The rupee stayed off the day's high against the dollar as banks persistently bought dollars for importers, dealers said. The Indian unit had opened higher as public-sector banks sold dollars in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market before the spot market opened, dealers said. The state-owned banks sold the dollars likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, they said.

 

Banks persistently bought dollars for importers, who wanted to make the most of relatively lower dollar/rupee levels, dealers said. Volume in the currency market was lower than usual as market participants refrained from placing fresh bets as they are uncertain of the Indian currency's movement going ahead, noting the central bank's active intervention in the market in the recent times, dealers said. 

 

"This is some new trend," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "Intervention (by RBI) in NDF before spot opens and range bound for the rest of the day. The market has become monotonous." The central bank had intervened heavily in the NDF market on Tuesday too, to prevent the rupee from breaching the 88.80 a dollar level. Before that, it intervened heavily in the NDF market on Oct. 15, which led to the Indian unit posting an intraday gain of 89 paise, the most since November 2022.

 

The RBI has also been intervening in the spot market steadfastly, ensuring that the local unit does not fall below the key level. Some dealers speculated that some state-owned banks sold dollars in the spot market, likely on behalf of the RBI, Thursday as well.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 88.40 and 88.70 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 88.40. (Rati Chaphekar)

---

India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Nov 6

 

MUMBAI – At 1135 IST, the rupee was at 88.5825 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 88.5200 a dollar, against the previous close of 88.6550 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	89.00	88.80	88.20	88.00
Brokerage firm	88.90	88.80	88.50	88.40
Brokerage firm	89.00	88.80	88.30	87.50

 

(Rati Chaphekar)

---

India Rupee: Erases most gains as importers buy dlrs; RBI's sales in NDF aid

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.6275	88.5200	88.5200	88.6325	88.6550

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased most of its early gains against the dollar as importers rushed to buy dollars to make the most of the relatively lower dollar/rupee levels, dealers said. The domestic currency opened higher against the dollar Thursday as state-owned banks sold dollars in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, right before the domestic spot market opened, they said. 

 

The central bank had intervened heavily in the NDF market on Tuesday too, to prevent the rupee from breaching the 88.80 a dollar level. Before that, it intervened heavily in the NDF market on Oct. 15, which led to the Indian unit posting an intraday gain of 89 paise, the most since November 2022. 

 

"Today, there was clearly no need for intervention. The rupee was trading much below, around 88.60 in NDF," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Seems the RBI is now a bit paranoid."

 

Meanwhile, the dollar index rose to an over five-month high Wednesday, but eased a bit in early trade Thursday. The index rose after data showed US private payrolls rebounded in October. The US ADP National Employment Report Wednesday showed US private payrolls rose by 42,000 jobs in October, after declining by 29,000 in September, exceeding expectations of a 28,000 rise, according to a Reuters poll of economists. 

 

At 0915 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 100.04, down from 100.16 Wednesday and 100.20 Tuesday. The index rose to 100.36 on Wednesday, its highest level since May 29. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 88.20 and 88.70 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 88.30. (Rati Chaphekar)

---

India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed amid US govt shutdown uncertainty; yuan steady

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies traded on a mixed note against the dollar Thursday amid heightened uncertainty about the US government shutdown as it entered its 36th day, making it the longest ever government shutdown in US history. The shutdown has halted the release of key economic data, which is crucial for navigating the rate-cut trajectory of the Federal Reserve. 

 

Meanwhile, the dollar index came off its over five-month high in early trade due to a recovery in investors' appetite for riskier assets, which supported the Asian units. The index had hit an over five-month high on Wednesday following robust economic data in the US. The US ADP National Employment Report showed employment rose by 42,000 jobs in October after declining by 29,000 in September. The October print exceeded expectations of a 28,000 gain, according to a Reuters poll.

 

At 0912 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 100.04, down from 100.16 Wednesday and 100.20 Tuesday. The index rose to 100.36 on Wednesday, its highest level since May 29.

 

The Chinese yuan traded steady against the greenback. China Wednesday said it would suspend retaliatory tariffs on US imports, including duties on farm goods, after last week's meeting of the two countries' leaders, but imports of US soybean still face a 13% tariff. The Taiwan dollar fell 0.1% against the dollar. 

 

Meanwhile, China's services activity expanded in October but at its slowest pace in three months, as a decline in overseas orders offset the boost from improved domestic demand, a private survey released on Wednesday showed. The RatingDog China general services purchasing managers' index, compiled by S&P Global, slipped to 52.6 from 52.9 in September, staying above the 50-mark that separates growth from contraction.

 

The Indonesian rupiah rose 0.1% against the greenback even after data released Wednesday showed Indonesia's economic growth decelerated slightly in the third quarter, highlighting a challenge for the government to boost growth to 8% by 2029. Growth slowed to 5.04% in the September quarter from 5.12% in the June quarter. That means the December quarter will be key if the country is to meet its full-year target of 5.2% and carry that momentum into 2026, which has a goal of 5.4% growth. President Prabowo Subianto has pledged to lift growth to 8% by 2029.

 

The Philippine peso traded steady against the dollar even after data Wednesday showed inflation in the Philippines stayed below the central bank's target for the eighth straight month in October, giving it leeway to lower interest rates again next month to support economic growth. Annual inflation held steady at 1.7% in October, as slower increases in the cost of food and transport offset the rise in utility, clothing and footwear prices.

 

The South Korean won fell 0.3% against the greenback. The Malaysian ringgit rose 0.2% while the Thai baht traded steady against the dollar. (Rati Chaphekar)

---

India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Nov 6

 

MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Thursday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	88.81	88.56
State-owned bank	88.80	88.45
State-owned bank	88.80	88.40
Private-sector bank	88.80	88.50
Private-sector bank	88.80	88.45
Brokerage firm	88.80	88.40
Brokerage firm	88.90	88.40
Brokerage firm	88.75	88.53

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Rati Chaphekar)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2025. All rights reserved.