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Informist, Monday, Nov. 3, 2025
 

By Rati Chaphekar 

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended steady against the greenback Monday as state-owned banks persistently sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, which offset the impact of banks buying dollars for importers, dealers said. Throughout the day, the domestic currency was also under pressure from a surge in the dollar index, which rose to a three-month high after comments by Federal Reserve officials dampened expectations of a rate cut in December.

 

"It was a very dull day today (Monday)," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "There was very little movement (in the rupee) all day. We can't even gauge how long these levels will continue." Since September, the RBI has strongly defended the 88.80 per dollar mark, and is expected to continue doing so, dealers said. The Indian currency had hit a lifetime low of 88.8025 on Sept. 30.

 

Other Asian currencies fell 0.1-0.3% against the dollar with the Thai baht being the worst performer. After trading in a tight range of six paise throughout the day, the Indian unit ended the day at 88.7775 a dollar.

 

The rupee opened flat and traded at almost the same level throughout the day as state-owned banks persistently sold dollars. Banks bought dollars on behalf of importers who were wary of further depreciation in the Indian currency, but the purchases were not aggressive enough to make the rupee breach its lifetime low. The rupee touched an intraday low of 88.8000 a dollar, a hair's breadth away from its all-time low.

 

The central bank continued the trend of intervening actively through dollar sales to prevent the Indian currency from hitting a record low. "It seems like deja vu," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "The rupee saw the same trading session as it saw before the jerk of Oct. 15. for almost a week." The central bank had actively tried to protect the rupee from falling past 88.80 a dollar before ramping up its support drastically on Oct. 15, which had led to the rupee posting its biggest one-day gain in over 16 weeks.

 

The dollar index rose in early trade Monday, putting the rupee under pressure as expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Open Market Committee in December were dented. "I did not see a need to cut rates this week," Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said at a banking conference. "I'd find it difficult to cut rates again in December unless there is clear evidence that inflation will fall faster than expected or that the labour market will cool more rapidly."

 

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said a December rate cut was not locked in while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said she was open to reforming the interest rate target used by the Fed to implement monetary policy. Fed Governor Christopher Waller, however, made the case for more policy easing to shore up a weakening labour market.

 

The FOMC cut the benchmark target federal funds rate by 25 basis points last week, as was widely expected. Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in a 69% chance of a 25 basis-point cut at the December meeting, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.92, up from 99.72 Friday and 99.52 Thursday.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.7775	88.7700	88.7450	88.8000	88.7650
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	192.97	192.73	192.97	190.68	192.83

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended steady as market participants remained uncertain of the outlook of the Fed's interest rate trajectory, dealers said. Forwards of a currency pair are reflective of the interest rate differential between the two countries. 

 

The Fed last week cut the benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points for the second consecutive meeting, to 3.75-4.00%. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned at a press conference afterwards that another rate cut in December is "far from a foregone conclusion".

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.17%, unchanged from the previous close. On an absolute basis, the premium was 192.97 paise, against 192.83 paise Friday. 

 

OUTLOOK

Tuesday, the rupee will take cues from movement in the dollar index and in other Asian currencies, dealers said. Traders expect the RBI to continue intervening through dollar sales to prevent the Indian currency from hitting a record low.

 

Market participants will also watch out for any development on the India-US trade deal negotiations. "Looks like we will have the same levels throughout the week," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Probably the (India-US) trade deal is the only thing that can cause any movement in the rupee now."

 

Dealers also expect importers to continue buying dollars, wary of further depreciation in the rupee. The purchases will exert pressure on the local unit. The rupee is expected to move in a range of 88.40 to 88.80 against the dollar Tuesday. Immediate technical support for the rupee is pegged at 88.80 per dollar. 

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India Rupee - World FX: Dollar index up on dampened rate-cut bets; yen down

 

	AT 1400 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3131	1.3149	1.3122	1.3154
EUR/USD	1.1526	1.1542	1.1522	1.1597
NZD/USD	0.5718	0.5730	0.5713	0.5712
AUD/USD	0.6552	0.6562	0.6540	0.6541
USD/JPY	154.1370	154.2820	153.9930	153.9840
USD/CAD	1.4024	1.4026	1.4009	1.4050
EUR/JPY	177.6630	177.9820	177.6080	178.6104
CHF/USD	1.2410	1.2445	1.2410	1.2399
EUR/CHF	0.9287	0.9295	0.9276	0.9353

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index rose to a three-month high as Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic Friday said a rate cut in December was not locked in, while Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said she was open to reforming the interest rate target used by the Fed to implement monetary policy. "I did not see a need to cut rates this week," Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said at a banking conference. "I'd find it difficult to cut rates again in December unless there is clear evidence that inflation will fall faster than expected or that the labour market will cool more rapidly."

 

Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in a 69% chance of a 25 basis-point cut at the US Federal Open Market Committee's December meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool. At 1400 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.79, up from 99.72 Friday and 99.52 Thursday.

 

The Japanese yen fell 0.1% against the greenback after newly elected Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi Saturday said she has no plan to renegotiate a $550 billion investment package deal reached with the US. "I believe that even if the prime minister changes, promises made between governments should not be altered," Takaichi told reporters at the end of a week of diplomatic events, including a summit with US President Donald Trump.

 

The pound sterling fell 0.1% against the greenback ahead of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting due Thursday. The BoE is expected to keep the key policy rate steady, slowing its pace of cuts for the first time since it started to loosen policy last year, although some analysts do expect a reduction after softer inflation and wage data. The Bank of England's most recent rate cut--by 25 basis points to 4% in August--was only passed by a 5-4 margin after two rounds of voting by the Monetary Policy Committee.

 

The euro traded steady against the dollar as market participants awaited key eurozone October manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index data due later in the day. The data are among the factors that will influence the European Central Bank's decision on the eurozone's policy rate trajectory.

 

The Australian dollar rose 0.1% against the dollar. Data from a private-sector survey Monday showed China's factory activity in October expanded at a slower pace as both new orders and output waned amid tariff anxiety. The RatingDog China general manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by S&P Global, dropped to 50.6 in October from 51.2 in September, missing analysts' expectations of 50.9 in a Reuters poll. Any development in China's economy affects Australia because of their close bilateral trade ties. The New Zealand dollar traded steady against the greenback.  (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: In thin band as dollar sales by RBI offset importer's dollar buys

 

	AT 1300 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.7925	88.7700	88.7475	88.7925	88.7650

 

MUMBAI – The rupee traded in a thin band against the greenback as public sector banks persistently sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, which offset banks' dollar buys on behalf of importers, who rushed in to buy dollars fearing further depreciation of the Indian unit, dealers said.

 

"It has been flat throughout the day," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "Also, there are not any cues in the near future that could move the rupee." The rupee has hovered around 88.78 a dollar, at a spitting distance from the rupee's all-time low of 88.8025 a dollar. 

 

Earlier in the day, the rupee came under pressure as the dollar index surged to an over-three-month high due to dampened expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in its December meeting. On Friday, several Fed officials expressed discomfort with the central bank's decision to cut interest rates in October, when it cut rates by 25 basis points. At 1300 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.74, up from 99.72 Friday and 99.52 Thursday. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 88.50 and 88.90 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 88.80.  (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Forward premium steady amid uncertainty over future Fed rate cuts

 

	AT 1330 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.7800	88.7700	88.7450	88.8000	88.7650
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	191.97	192.73	192.97	190.68	192.83

 

NEW DELHI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium was largely steady as market participants remained uncertain over the outlook of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory, dealers said. Forwards of a currency pair are reflective of the interest rate differential between the two countries. "There are not much cues in the market," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "More clarity on Fed's rate cuts is awaited."

 

The Fed last week cut the benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points for the second consecutive meeting, to 3.75-4.00%. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned at a press conference afterward that another rate cut in December is "far from a foregone conclusion."

 

On Friday, several Fed officials also expressed discomfort with the US central bank's decision to cut interest rates in October, with the Fed Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic saying at a banking conference that a rate cut in December was not locked in. "I did not see a need to cut rates this week," Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said. "I'd find it difficult to cut rates again in December unless there is clear evidence that inflation will fall faster than expected or that the labor market will cool more rapidly." Meanwhile, Fed Governor Christopher Waller made the case for more policy easing to shore up a weakening labour market. 

 

Fed funds futures traders are currently pricing in a 69% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 bps in December, the CME FedWatch tool showed. With little economic data being reported due to the prolonged US government shutdown, market participants will keep an eye on the US ADP employment data and ISM Purchasing Managers' Index this week for cues on the health of the world's largest economy.

 

At 1330 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.16%, against the previous close of 2.17%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 191.97 paise, against 192.83 paise Friday.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Nov 3

 

NEW DELHI – At 1145 IST, the rupee was at 88.7875 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 88.7700 a dollar, against the previous close of 88.7650 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	89.10	88.80	88.40	88.20
Private-sector bank	88.85	88.80	88.50	88.00
Brokerage firm	89.00	88.80	88.30	87.50

 

(Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Steady as RBI's dollar sales avert record low; rise in dollar weighs

 

	AT 0945 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.7700	88.7700	88.7475	88.7925	88.7650

 

MUMBAI – The rupee was steady against the greenback as some state-owned banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. Likely intervention by the central bank prevented the rupee from falling beyond its lifetime low. The rupee was weighed down by a sharp rise in the dollar index and also tracking losses in other Asian currencies, they said. 

 

"I don't think so RBI will protect the 88.80 a dollar level as aggressively as it did few weeks before," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "It is now time for RBI to let it (the rupee) go till 89.00 (a dollar) now." Since September, the RBI has strongly defended the 88.80 per dollar mark, dealers said. The Indian currency hit a lifetime low of 88.8025 on Sept. 30. 

 

The dollar index surged to an over three-month high due to dampened expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in its December meeting. On Friday, several Fed officials Friday expressed discomfort with the central bank's decision to cut interest rates in October, when it cut rates by 25 basis points. At 0945 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.77, up from 99.72 Friday and 99.52 Thursday. 

 

Dealers expect importers to buy dollars aggressively, fearing further depreciation of the rupee, which may additionally weigh on the domestic currency during the day. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 88.50 and 88.90 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 88.80.  (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most dn as dlr index at 3-mo high; Thai baht dn 0.3%

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies fell against the dollar Monday as the dollar index hit an over three-month-high owing to dampened hopes of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve at its December meeting. The US Federal Open Market Committee cut the benchmark target federal funds rate by 25 basis points last week, in line with market expectations. However, comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the post-policy press conference and by several Fed officials on Friday have dashed hopes of another rate cut by the central bank next month.  

 

On Friday, Fed Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said a rate cut in December was not locked in, while Fed Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said she was open to reforming the interest rate target used by the Fed to implement monetary policy. "I did not see a need to cut rates this week," Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said at a banking conference. "I'd find it difficult to cut rates again in December unless there is clear evidence that inflation will fall faster than expected or that the labour market will cool more rapidly."

 

Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in a 69% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. At 0910 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.76, up from 99.72 Friday and 99.52 Thursday. Tracking the sharp rise in the dollar index, the Malaysian ringgit fell 0.2% against the greenback and the Thai baht fell 0.3%, the most among its peers. The Indonesian rupiah fell 0.1%.

 

The Taiwan dollar fell 0.2% against the dollar even after Taiwan's representative to the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation Summit, Lin Hsin-i, Saturday said he and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had discussed supply chains and semiconductors during a meeting on the sidelines of the event in South Korea. The island's exports to the US, apart from semiconductors, are currently subject to 20% tariff, though Taipei has been in talks to get the figure reduced.

 

The South Korean won traded steady against the greenback. South Korea's factory activity contracted in October after briefly expanding a month earlier as businesses remained cautious amid a global outlook clouded by Washington's tariff policies. The purchasing managers index for manufacturers in Asia's fourth-largest economy, released by S&P Global, fell to 49.4 in October from 50.7 in September. The 50-mark separates growth from contraction.

 

Bucking the trend, the Chinese yuan rose 0.1% against the dollar even after data Monday showed China's factory activity in October expanded at a slower pace as new orders and output both waned amid tariff anxiety, a private-sector survey showed on Monday. The RatingDog China general manufacturing purchasing managers' index, compiled by S&P Global, dropped to 50.6 in October from 51.2 in September, missing analysts' expectations of 50.9 in a Reuters poll. The Philippine peso too, rose 0.1% against the greenback.  (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Nov 3

 

MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Monday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	88.85	88.50
Private-sector bank	88.95	88.60
Brokerage firm	88.90	88.68
Brokerage firm	88.90	88.60
Brokerage firm	89.10	88.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Rati Chaphekar)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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