Informist Poll
India IIP growth seen easing to 3-month low of 3.0% in Sept
This story was originally published at 14:00 IST on 27 October 2025
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By Shubham Rana
NEW DELHI – Growth in India's industrial sector production likely slowed further in September, according to economists, tracking a similar slowdown in the performance of eight core industries, which account for over 40% of the total weight of the Index of Industrial Production. The statistical effect of an unfavourable base is also expected to weigh on the headline factory output print, economists said.
Year-on-year factory output growth, as measured by the Index of Industrial Production, is seen at a three-month low of 3.0% in September, according to an Informist poll of 10 economists. The output had risen 4% in August and 3.2% in September last year.
Estimates in the poll ranged from 2.0% to 4.3%. The statistics ministry will release IIP data for September at 1600 IST Tuesday.
The base effect in September is such that if the overall index remains unchanged from August, IIP growth will fall to 3.3%. The general index had risen 0.8% on month in September 2024, resulting in an unfavourable base effect this time. At 3.0% on-year growth in September, the index would fall 0.3% from August.
Most high-frequency indicators reflected slower factory output growth in September. The growth in output of India's eight core industries fell to 3.0% last month from 6.5% in August. The number of e-way bills generated in September rose 21.0% on year, slower than 22.4% growth in August.
Growth is expected to be led by the manufacturing sector, with motor vehicle production rising, even as the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index moderated in September, economists at Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd. said in a report.
Vehicle production grew 10.8% on year in September compared with a 8.1% rise in August. The manufacturing PMI fell to a four-month low of 57.7 in September from an over-17-year high of 59.3 in August.
Following is the summary of the poll on IIP growth in September:
| ORGANISATION | IIP GROWTH ESTIMATE |
| ICRA | 2.0% |
| ICICI Securities Primary Dealership | 2.0% |
| Nirmal Bang Equities | 2.6% |
| ICICI Bank | 2.8% |
| HDFC Bank | 3.0% |
| Union Bank of India | 3.0% |
| Sunidhi Securities | 3.3% |
| CareEdge Ratings | 3.9% |
| India Ratings and Research | 4.0% |
| Moody's Analytics | 4.3% |
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Avishek Dutta
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