Informist Poll
Sept WPI inflation seen easing to 0.4% from 0.5% in Aug
This story was originally published at 15:13 IST on 13 October 2025
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By Shubham Rana
NEW DELHI - WPI inflation likely inched lower to 0.4% in September from a four-month high of 0.52% in the previous month largely because of a favourable base effect and a fall in food prices, according to an Informist poll of 11 economists. WPI inflation was 1.91% in September 2024.
Economists' estimates for WPI inflation in September ranged from 0.26% to 0.7%. The commerce ministry will release WPI data for September at 1200 IST on Tuesday.
The base effect in September is such that if the all commodities index remains unchanged from August, wholesale inflation would fall to 0.3%. A WPI inflation rate of 0.4% in September would translate to a 0.1% month-on-month rise in the all commodities index, lower than the 0.5% increase seen in August.
"Other than high base effect, the muted positive number was a result of a fall in food WPI getting compensated by a rise in core WPI," Union Bank of India said in a report. "Food WPI likely switched back to negative zone again on dual pressure of high base effect and correcting food prices."
Economists at Union Bank project WPI food inflation at (-)1.6% for September as against 0.21% in August. According to data from the Department of Consumer Affairs, wholesale prices of tomato fell 22% on month in September. Wholesale prices of onion and tomato were also down 3% and 2%, respectively.
Core WPI inflation is expected to have risen in September mainly led by "minerals and non-food articles even as manufactured sub-segments and beverages have also likely gone up", Union Bank economists said. Core WPI inflation--or inflation excluding food and fuel items--is seen rising to 1.8% in September from 1.7% a month ago.
The following is a summary of the poll by Informist on WPI inflation in September:
| ORGANISATION | WPI INFLATION ESTIMATE |
| Sunidhi Securities | 0.26% |
| India Ratings and Research | 0.3% |
| State Bank of India | 0.35% |
| YES Bank | 0.37% |
| Capital Economics | 0.4% |
| ICICI Bank | 0.41% |
| Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities | 0.43% |
| Union Bank of India | 0.47% |
| STCI Primary Dealer | 0.5% |
| CareEdge Ratings | 0.6% |
| ICRA | 0.7% |
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Vandana Hingorani
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