India Rupee Review
Ends off highs as importers buy dlrs; FX inflows support
This story was originally published at 17:39 IST on 10 October 2025
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Friday, Oct. 10, 2025
By Rati Chaphekar
MUMBAI – The rupee ended off its day's high as banks persistently purchased dollars on behalf of importers to make the most of the relatively lower dollar/rupee levels, dealers said. The Indian currency was supported by foreign fund inflows into initial public offerings of domestic companies and upbeat risk sentiment among investors related to India-US trade negotiations, dealers said.
"It was a volatile day after a long time," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "There were many factors at play today. A lot of sentiment-driven things happened too." After touching a high of 88.5025 a dollar during the day, the rupee ended at 88.6850 Friday against 88.7825 Thursday. The Indian currency finally broke out of the tight range of 4-5 paise it had been confined to this week, and moved in a range of 30 paise during the day, its widest intraday range in nearly three weeks.
The Indian unit was expected to come under extreme downward pressure as the dollar index rose to a 10-week high on safe-haven demand amid increasing uncertainty related to the US government shutdown, which has entered its second week. However, it opened flat against the dollar as the RBI likely sold dollars in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market before the spot market opened, dealers said.
The central bank also intervened in the spot market around 88.79 a dollar, which prevented the Indian unit from hitting a record low, dealers said. The apex bank has intervened relentlessly in the spot and non-deliverable forwards markets during the week to prevent the rupee from falling to a lifetime low and testing the psychologically-crucial 89-per-dollar level. The rupee had hit a record low of 88.8025 a dollar Sept. 30.
However, an hour into trade, the Indian unit rose as foreign banks sold dollars on behalf of overseas investors looking to invest in the initial public offerings of domestic companies, dealers said. The public offer of Canara HSBC Life Insurance Co. Ltd. opened Friday and will close Tuesday. Rubicon Research Ltd.'s initial public offering opened for subscription Thursday and will close Monday.
The rise in foreign fund inflows and the RBI's strong defence of the rupee prompted traders to sell the greenback to trim their long dollar bets, leading to stop-losses being triggered on long dollar bets at multiple dollar/rupee levels, pushing the Indian unit to a high of 88.5025 a dollar, dealers said.
Positive sentiment among investors after Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in a post on X Thursday that he and US President Donald Trump reviewed the "good progress" achieved in the much-talked-about trade negotiations between the two countries also supported the Indian unit, dealers said. "Agreed to stay in close touch (with President Trump) over the coming weeks," Modi said. "There was some positivity on the back of the Trump-Modi news. Not a lot, but people traded on it for sure," a dealer at a state-owned bank said.
To take the benefit of the relatively lower dollar/rupee levels, banks rushed to buy dollars on behalf of importers, which resulted in the Indian unit giving up most of its gains, dealers said. "Importers placed bids very aggressively after the rupee rose. It was a very good and unexpected deal for them," a dealer at a state-owned bank said.
| AT 1530 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 88.6850 | 88.7900 | 88.5025 | 88.7975 | 88.7825 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 196.57 | 197.93 | 197.93 | 195.93 | 196.98 |
FORWARDS
The one-year dollar/rupee forward premium ended slightly lower as the RBI likely sold dollars for long-tenure forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions and avert draining out rupee liquidity, dealers said. The RBI likely sold forward dollars for maturity in March 2027, they said. The central bank had sold dollars for forward delivery in the last four trading sessions as well, according to dealers.
The central bank has been relentlessly selling dollars in the domestic spot and offshore non-deliverable forwards markets to prevent the Indian unit from falling sharply and testing the psychologically crucial 89-per-dollar mark. The RBI sold dollars around 88.79 Friday as well, likely to prevent the Indian unit from hitting a new record low, dealers said.
Considering spot dollar sales suck out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, thereby postponing the drain on systemic liquidity.
Meanwhile, some banks stepped in to buy dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, noting the sharp rise of the rupee, which limited the fall in premiums, dealers said.
At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.22%, against the previous close of 2.23%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 196.57 paise, against 197.93 paise Thursday.
OUTLOOK
On Monday, the rupee will take cues from the movement of the dollar index and of other Asian currencies, dealers said. However, they expect the RBI to continue intervening through dollar sales and prevent the rupee from testing the psychologically crucial level of 89.00 a dollar.
Market participants will continue to closely monitor developments related to India-US trade talks. They expect weak risk appetite among investors due to uncertainty about US tariffs to continue weighing on the rupee.
Dealers also expect importers to continue buying dollars as they are wary of the rupee declining going ahead, which would exert pressure on the local unit. The rupee may get support from foreign portfolio inflows linked to initial public offerings of domestic companies, dealers said.
The rupee is expected to move in a range of 88.50 to 88.90 against the dollar. Immediate technical support for the rupee is pegged at 88.80 per dollar, which, if broken, can push the rupee to 89.00 a dollar, they said.
India Rupee - World FX: Yen rises post wholesale inflation data; euro gains
| AT 1455 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3304 | 1.3315 | 1.3280 | 1.3300 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1578 | 1.1590 | 1.1557 | 1.1563 |
| NZD/USD | 0.5755 | 0.5758 | 0.5740 | 0.5745 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6553 | 0.6573 | 0.6546 | 0.6553 |
| USD/JPY | 152.6650 | 153.2720 | 152.3880 | 153.0650 |
| USD/CAD | 1.4020 | 1.4034 | 1.4014 | 1.4014 |
| EUR/JPY | 176.7720 | 177.2600 | 176.3290 | 176.9490 |
| CHF/USD | 1.2421 | 1.2427 | 1.2391 | 1.2392 |
| EUR/CHF | 0.9322 | 0.9333 | 0.9318 | 0.9313 |
MUMBAI – The Japanese yen rose 0.3% against the greenback after data Friday showed Japan's wholesale inflation held steady in September, in a sign of persistent price pressures that could keep the central bank on course to raise interest rates. Wholesale prices rose 2.7% in the year to September, steady from August and exceeding market forecasts for a 2.5% increase. The wholesale price data is among factors the Bank of Japan gauges as a leading indicator of consumer inflation, which is the central bank's main gauge in setting monetary policy.
Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Friday that the government was concerned about excessive volatility in the foreign exchange market as the yen recently came under pressure due to fiscal concerns. "We have been recently seeing one-sided, rapid moves on the foreign exchange market," he said. The Japanese yen is on track to post a near 4?cline over the week, its biggest fall since early October last year.
The dollar index extended its gaining streak, hovering near a 10-week high, owing to safe haven demand amid increasing uncertainty related to the US government shutdown, which has entered its second week. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Michael Barr on Thursday said the US central bank should move cautiously on further interest rate cuts due to inflation risks.
At 1455 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.27, against 99.40 Thursday and 98.22 Wednesday. The index touched a high of 99.56 on Thursday.
The euro rose 0.2% against the dollar after falling for the last four days. The central bank forecast Thursday said that France's economy is set to maintain steady growth in the third quarter despite political uncertainty and trade tensions, buoyed by resilient service sector activity. The euro zone's second-biggest economy was on course to grow 0.3% from the second quarter, when it also grew 0.3%, the Bank of France said in its monthly economic outlook, leaving its estimate unchanged from September.
The Australian dollar rose 0.1% against the greenback, while New Zealand dollar and Swiss franc rose 0.2?ch. (Rati Chaphekar)
India Rupee: Premium tad down as RBI likely sells long-term forward dollars
| AT 1400 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 88.5500 | 88.7850 | 88.5025 | 88.7975 | 88.7825 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 196.43 | 197.93 | 197.93 | 195.93 | 197.93 |
NEW DELHI – The one-year dollar/rupee forward premium fell slightly as the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars for long-tenure forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions and avert draining out rupee liquidity, dealers said. The RBI likely sold forward dollars for maturity in March 2027, they said. The central bank had sold dollars for forward delivery in the last four trading sessions as well, according to dealers.
The central bank has been relentlessly selling dollars in the domestic spot and offshore non-deliverable forwards market to prevent the Indian unit from falling sharply and testing the psychologically crucial 89-per-dollar mark. The RBI sold dollars around 88.79 on Friday as well, likely to prevent the Indian unit from hitting a record low, dealers said.
Considering spot dollar sales suck out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, thereby postponing the drain on systemic liquidity.
Meanwhile, some banks stepped in to buy dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, noting the sharp rise of the rupee, which limited the fall in premiums, dealers said. The Indian unit surged 0.3% against the dollar to a high of 88.5025 on Friday due to foreign fund inflows.
At 1400 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.22%, against the previous close of 2.23%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 196.43 paise, against 197.93 paise Thursday. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Rises sharply on IPO-linked FX inflows; stop-losses triggered
| AT 1335 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 88.5600 | 88.7850 | 88.5500 | 88.7975 | 88.7825 |
MUMBAI – After being steady for the whole week, the rupee finally broke out of its tight range and rose sharply against the dollar Friday as foreign banks sold dollars on behalf of overseas investors looking to invest in the initial public offerings of domestic companies, dealers said. The Reserve Bank of India's likely dollar sales earlier in the day also helped the Indian unit, they said.
"Nobody expected this kind of appreciation (in rupee) today," a dealer at a private sector bank said. "It was mainly driven by IPO related inflows, which everyone was expecting the whole week. Hopefully, this will continue next week also." The public offer of Canara HSBC Life Insurance Co. Ltd. opened on Friday and will close Tuesday. Rubicon Research Ltd.'s IPO opened for subscription Thursday and will close Monday.
Moreover, foreign fund inflows and RBI's strong defence of the rupee prompted traders to sell the greenback to trim their long dollar bets, leading to stop-losses being triggered on long dollar bets at multiple dollar/rupee levels, pushing the Indian unit to a high of 88.5500 a dollar, dealers said.
Meanwhile, some banks bought dollars for importers, noting the relatively lower dollar/rupee levels, which capped gains in the Indian unit, dealers said. A sharp rise in dollar index also weighed on the rupee.
Earlier in the day, some public sector banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the RBI at around 88.79 a dollar, which prevented the Indian unit from hitting a record low, dealers said. The central bank has intervened relentlessly in the spot and NDF market this week to prevent the rupee from falling to a lifetime low and testing the psychologically-crucial 89-per-dollar level. The rupee hit a record low of 88.8025 a dollar last week.
For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 88.40 and 88.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 88.40. (Rati Chaphekar)
India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Oct 10
MUMBAI – At 1115 IST, the rupee was at 88.7000 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 88.7850 a dollar, against the previous close of 88.7825 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:
| Participants | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 |
| Private-sector bank | 88.90 | 88.80 | 88.60 | 88.50 |
| Brokerage firm | 89.00 | 88.80 | 88.40 | 88.20 |
| Brokerage firm | 88.85 | 88.80 | 88.40 | 88.20 |
(Rati Chaphekar and Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Steady as RBI's active dlr sales in NDF, spot avert record low
| AT 0945 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 88.7800 | 88.7850 | 88.7700 | 88.7975 | 88.7825 |
MUMBAI – The rupee traded steady against the dollar as some banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market and spot market, dealers said. The persistent dollar sales by the central bank offset the impact of a surge in the dollar index and banks' dollar buys for importers, they said.
"It is taking a lot for the RBI to control the level. So, I think RBI can take the dollar/rupee upwards 10-15 paise and let the market take care of the rest," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. The central bank has intervened relentlessly in the spot and NDF market this week to prevent the rupee from falling to a lifetime low and testing the psychologically-crucial 89-per-dollar level. The rupee hit a record low of 88.8025 a dollar last week.
Before the domestic spot market opened, the Indian unit was trading around 88.82 a dollar in the offshore NDF. However, it opened at 88.7850 a dollar in the spot market, thanks to the RBI. "I think the RBI should let go of the levels now. It does not look like the negative factors will go away soon. There is no point of protecting one level," a dealer at a private sector bank said.
The dollar index extended its gaining streak and rose to a 10-week high as the yen and the euro remained weak. At 0945 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.31, against 99.40 Thursday and 98.22 Wednesday. The index touched a high of 99.56 on Thursday.
The domestic currency is expected to recieve some support from foreign inflows into the initial public offerings of domestic companies, dealers said. The public offer of Canara HSBC Life Insurance Co. Ltd. will open on Friday and close on Tuesday. Rubicon Research Ltd.'s IPO opened for subscription Thursday and will close Monday.
For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 88.60 and 88.90 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 88.80. (Rati Chaphekar)
India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed amid US shutdown uncertainty; Taiwan dlr falls
MUMBAI – Asian currencies traded on a mixed note against the dollar Friday as uncertainty about the US government shutdown continues, showing no signs of ending anytime soon. The US government shutdown started last week as Democrats and Republicans were unable to agree on a budget for the government's new fiscal year. The shutdown has continued for its second week, halting the release of key economic data, which is vital for investors to gauge the rate cut trajectory of the Federal Reserve.
The dollar index surged to a 10-week high on Thursday, tracking losses in the yen and the euro, which weighed on Asian currencies. At 0930 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.31, against 99.40 Thursday and 98.22 Wednesday. The index touched a high of 99.56 on Thursday.
The Taiwan dollar fell 0.2% against the greenback after Taiwan's exports in September grew less than expected, with the impact of 20% US tariffs being felt even as semiconductors remain exempt from the tariffs. The data Thursday showed exports rose 33.8% on year to $54.25 billion, missing the 35.5% increase forecast in a Reuters poll.
The Philippine peso rose 0.1% against the dollar even after the Philippines' central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates for the fourth consecutive time on Thursday. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas reduced its benchmark overnight reverse repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% from 5.00%. Meanwhile, an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 struck offshore in the southern Philippines on Friday morning. The country's seismology agency has issued tsunami warnings and urged people in nearby coastal areas to move to higher ground.
The Chinese yuan traded steady against the greenback. Chinese holidaymakers' average spending dipped to a three-year low over this year's eight-day Golden Week holiday. In China, the Mid-Autumn festival is an important one for family gatherings. Average spending per trip during the holiday this year reached $113.52, down 0.6% from the same period last year, according to Reuters' calculations based on government data published on Thursday.
The Indonesian rupiah fell 0.1% against the greenback even after the country's finance minister Thursday said he expected economic growth to rise to 6%, thanks to a recent liquidity injection of $12.09 billion, most of which had already been disbursed as loans by banks.
The Malaysian ringgit fell 0.1% against the dollar, while the South Korean won rose 0.4% and the Thai baht rose 0.1%. (Rati Chaphekar)
India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Oct 10
MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Friday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:
| PARTICIPANT | SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
| State-owned bank | 89.00 | 88.65 |
| State-owned bank | 88.80 | 88.70 |
| Private-sector bank | 89.00 | 88.70 |
| Foreign bank | 89.00 | 88.65 |
| Brokerage firm | 88.82 | 88.62 |
| Brokerage firm | 89.00 | 88.50 |
| Brokerage firm | 88.90 | 88.72 |
(Rati Chaphekar and Pratiksha)
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Rajeev Pai
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