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Informist, Friday, Oct. 3, 2025

 

By Rati Chaphekar

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended lower against the dollar Friday as banks persistently bought dollars on behalf of importers, dealers said. However, the Reserve Bank of India's active dollar sales prevented the Indian unit from hitting a record low, they said.

 

"The RBI did not move the rupee higher and was just working with particular levels. I think this policy will continue and we will see some depreciation coming in," a dealer at a private-sector bank said.

 

After trading in a tight range of 12 paise throughout the day, Indian unit ended the day at 88.7725 a dollar on Friday, against 88.6900 a dollar Wednesday. 

 

The rupee started the day steady against the dollar as the RBI likely intervened through dollar sales in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market before the spot market opened. The rupee was trading around 88.76 a dollar in the offshore NDF market before the opening of the domestic spot market, where it opened at 88.68. 

 

Shortly after opening, the rupee came under downward pressure as banks stepped in to buy dollars on behalf of importers, who were wary of further depreciation in the Indian unit, dealers said. The rupee has depreciated 0.1% this week, falling to a record low of 88.8025 a dollar Tuesday. 

 

Moreover, the dollar index rose in early trade Friday as market participants weighed the impact of the US government shutdown, which also weighed on the local unit. The key US labour market data, which was due later in the day, will be delayed now due to the shutdown, depriving markets of a crucial gauge for the Federal Reserve's rate trajectory. However, the dollar index fell during European trade, providing some support to the domestic currency, they said. 

 

Fed Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan Thursday signalled she was not eager to cut interest rates further after the US central bank reduced the key policy rate by 25 basis points last month. Meanwhile, US private payrolls unexpectedly fell in September, suggesting a weakening in labour market conditions. Private employment fell by 32,000 jobs last month after a downwardly revised 3,000 decrease in August, data Thursday showed. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment increasing by 50,000. 

 

However, the central bank continuously sold dollars during the day, which prevented the Indian currency from hitting a lifetime low. The rupee fell to a low of 88.7850 a dollar, not too far from its record low. "Like many other days we saw good volumes on the selling (dollars) side at 88.7300-88.7500 levels," a dealer at another private-sector bank said.

 

The RBI has been actively intervening in the currency market for the past few weeks, both in the offshore NDF and spot market, which has prevented the rupee from testing its psychologically crucial 89-a-dollar level. "The outlook for dollar looks bullish and it is a matter of time when RBI will stop pursuing the level of 88.80 and leave it for the currency pair to head higher," Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, said in a note.

 

A rise in domestic equities also supported the rupee, dealers said. On Friday, the Nifty 50 ended 0.2% higher and the Sensex ended 0.3% higher.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.7725	88.6800	88.6600	88.7850	88.6900
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	205.08	204.58	205.89	203.97	204.00

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar/rupee forward premium ended higher Friday due to a fall in US Treasury yields after private payrolls unexpectedly fell in September, boosting expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates again this year, dealers said. Forwards of a currency pair are reflective of the interest rate differential between the two countries.

 

US Treasury yields also fell as the US government entered a full shutdown Wednesday with Democrats and Republicans unable to agree on a budget for the new fiscal year started Oct. 1. 

 

However, some banks sold forward dollars as they fear a dollar shortage in the system owing to the central bank's active dollar sale intervention in the spot and offshore NDF market, which capped gain in the forward premiums, dealers said. 

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.31%, against the previous close of 2.30%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 205.08 paise, against 204.00 paise Wednesday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Monday, the rupee will take cues from the movement in the dollar index after the key US services PMI data, due later in the day, dealers said. 

 

Market participants will continue to closely monitor developments related to India-US trade talks and US tariffs. They expect weak risk appetite among investors amid uncertainty about US tariffs to continue weighing on the rupee.

 

"The ongoing US-India trade tensions have been weighing on the rupee and shall continue to weigh till a solution is arrived at," Bhansali said. "88.50 is a support for the pair below which we could see it moving towards 88.00 levels while presently 88.80 is a resistance beyond which 89 would become visible." 

 

Dealers also expect importers to continue buying dollars, wary of a further decline in the rupee, which would exert downward pressure on the local unit. However, noting the central bank's active intervention in recent days, dealers expect the RBI to continue intervening through dollar sales and prevent the rupee from testing the psychologically crucial level of 89.00 a dollar.

 

The rupee is expected to move in a range of 88.50 to 88.90 against the dollar, with technical support pegged at 89.00 per dollar.

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India Rupee - World FX: Euro up post German PMI; yen falls before election

 

	AT 1510 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3451	1.3467	1.3429	1.3440
EUR/USD	1.1738	1.1745	1.1715	1.1715
NZD/USD	0.5832	0.5834	0.5814	0.5818
AUD/USD	0.6606	0.6609	0.6589	0.6591
USD/JPY	147.3190	147.8160	147.0980	147.2260
USD/CAD	1.3963	1.3969	1.3958	1.3964
EUR/JPY	172.9280	173.2160	172.4440	172.4900
CHF/USD	1.2552	1.2567	1.2527	1.2531
EUR/CHF	0.9351	0.9359	0.9346	0.9340

 

India Rupee - World FX: Euro up post German PMI; yen falls before election

 

MUMBAI – The euro rose 0.2% against the dollar after data released Friday showed Germany's services sector recorded its fastest growth in eight months in September. The final HCOB Germany services Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 51.5 in September, slightly below an initial reading of 52.5 but still in expansion territory after a reading of 49.3 in August.

 

The dollar index fell slightly in European trade as market participants weighed the impact of the US government shutdown. The key labour market data, which was due later in the day, will be delayed now due to the shutdown. Moreover, US private payrolls unexpectedly fell in September, suggesting a weakening in labour market conditions and boosted expectations of more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.

 

Private employment fell by 32,000 jobs last month after a downwardly revised 3,000 decrease in August, a report by a private agency showed Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment increasing 50,000 following a previously reported 54,000 advance in August. At 1400 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.79, against 97.86 Thursday and 97.70 Wednesday.

 

The Japanese yen fell 0.1% against the greenback ahead of a crucial ruling party vote this weekend that will determine the next prime minister. The front-runners in the potentially historic Liberal Democratic Party election are conservative nationalist Sanae Takaichi and her more moderate rival Shinjiro Koizumi. 

 

Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda Friday said inflation was on track to durably hit the bank's target and reiterated the central bank's resolve to continue raising interest rates if the economy and prices move in line with their forecast. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida, too, Thursday signalled confidence that conditions for another interest rate hike was falling into place.

 

The pound sterling fell 0.1% against the dollar after Bank of England's monthly survey showed Thursday that businesses in the three months to September are expected to keep employment steady over the next 12 months, the first time since January that they had not expected to increase staffing. Prior to that, such a reading had not been recorded since 2020. The Australian dollar rose 0.2% against the greenback whereas the New Zealand dollar rose 0.3%.  (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Fwd premium up as US Treasury yields fall post weak econ data

 

	AT 1330 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.7475	88.6800	88.6600	88.7850	88.6900
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	204.97	204.58	205.89	203.97	204.00

 

India Rupee: Fwd premium up as US Treasury yields fall post weak econ data

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar/rupee forward premium rose slightly Friday due to a fall in US Treasury yields after private payrolls unexpectedly fell in September, boosting expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again this year, dealers said. Forwards of a currency pair are reflective of the interest rate differential between the two countries.

 

The ADP National Employment Report Wednesday showed private payrolls in the US fell by 32,000 in September, the biggest drop since March 2023, after declining by 3,000 in August. Economists had forecast private employment increasing by 50,000. The 10-year US bond yield fell to 4.10% Thursday from 4.12% Wednesday. 

 

US Treasury yields also fell as the US government entered a full shutdown Wednesday with Democrats and Republicans unable to agree on a budget for the new fiscal year starting Oct. 1. This has delayed the release of key US economic data, including Friday's closely watched September jobs report, depriving markets of an important gauge for the Federal Reserve's rate trajectory. 

 

"I was expecting forward premiums to be much higher but it seems to be capped because of fear that there will dollar shortage in the system looking at RBI's intervention in spot and offshore," a dealer at a foreign bank said. The Reserve Bank of India has been actively intervening in both the spot and offshore non-deliverable forwards market in the last few weeks, in order to prevent a sharp depreciation in the rupee, dealers said. The central bank intervened in both the spot and NDF market on Friday as well, preventing the rupee from falling to a record low, they said. 

 

At 1330 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.31%, against the previous close of 2.30%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 204.97 paise, against 204.00 paise Wednesday.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Near record low as importers buy dlrs; RBI dlr sales limit fall

 

	AT 1230 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.7600	88.6800	88.6600	88.7850	88.6900

 

MUMBAI – The rupee hovered near its record low against the dollar Wednesday as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, who were wary of a further depreciation in the Indian currency, dealers said. However, losses in the domestic currency were limited as public sector banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, they said. The rupee fell to a low of 88.7850 a dollar during the day, not too far from its lifetime low of 88.8025. 

 

"We have seen usual importer demand (for dollars) since morning," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "Though there are some initial public offerings coming up, so we can expect some foreign portfolio inflows later in the day." 

 

Dealers said the central bank likely sold dollars to prevent the Indian unit from hitting a record low. The rupee has been trading in a tight range of 12 paise so far on Friday. Earlier in the day, the RBI also likely sold dollars in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market to support the Indian currency, according to dealers. "The same rupee levels are holding today as well. I am expecting 88.80 (a dollar) to be supported today also, since there is no big trigger," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. 

 

The dollar index rose Friday as market participants assessed the impact of the US government shutdown, which also weighed on the local unit, dealers said. The key US labour market data, which was due later in the day, will be delayed now due to the shutdown, depriving markets of a crucial gauge for the Federal Reserve's rate trajectory. At 1230 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.89, against 97.86 Thursday and 97.70 Wednesday.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 88.50 and 88.90 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 88.80. (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Oct 3

 

MUMBAI – At 1050 IST, the rupee was at 88.7650 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 88.6800 a dollar, against a previous close of 88.6900 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	88.80	88.75	88.55	88.35
State-owned bank	89.00	88.80	88.60	88.50
Private-sector bank	89.20	89.00	88.50	88.40
Brokerage firm	89.00	88.90	88.65	88.50

 

(Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee:Dn as importers buy dlrs; RBI sells dlrs in NDF before mkt opens

 

	AT 0942 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.7500	88.6800	88.6600	88.7550	88.6900

 

India Rupee: Down as importers buy dlrs; RBI sells dlrs in NDF before mkt opens

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell slightly against the dollar as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers on the expectation that the Indian unit may depreciate further in the near-term, dealers said. "Importers are buying (dollars). Normal demand is there in the market," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "I think the rupee will trade around these levels for the day. We can see some intervention (by RBI) at around 88.80 levels."

 

The rupee had opened steady against the dollar as the Reserve Bank of India likely intervened through dollar sales in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market before the spot market opened, dealers said. The rupee was trading around 88.76 a dollar in the offshore NDF market before the opening of the domestic spot market, where it opened at 88.68, thanks to the central bank's likely intervention in the offshore market.

 

Dealers expect the RBI to sell dollars in the spot market too, as has been the case in the recent past, to prevent the domestic currency from falling to a lifetime low. The rupee hit a record low of 88.8025 a dollar Tuesday. "I think there will be resistance around 88.80 (a dollar) but if it breaks, 88.90 may be the next stop," a dealer at another state-owned bank said.

 

The dollar index rose Friday as market participants weighed the impact of the US government shutdown, which also weighed on the local unit, dealers said. The key US labour market data, which was due later in the day, will be delayed now due to the shutdown, depriving markets of a crucial gauge for the Federal Reserve's rate trajectory. At 0942 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.89, against 97.86 Thursday and 97.70 Wednesday.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 88.50 and 88.90 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 88.80. (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed amid US govt shutdown; South Korean won dn 0.2%

 

MUMBAI - Asian currencies traded on a mixed note against the dollar Friday as market participants weighed the impact of the US government shutdown as Democrats and Republicans were unable to agree on a budget for the government's new fiscal year. The government shutdown has delayed the release of key US economic data, including Friday's closely watched September jobs report, depriving markets of an important gauge for the Federal Reserve's rate trajectory.

 

At 0920 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.89, against 97.86 Thursday and 97.70 Wednesday. Tracking the rise in the dollar index, the Indonesian rupiah and Malaysian ringgit fell 0.2% against the greenback. 

 

The South Korean won also fell 0.2% against the greenback as a presidential adviser Thursday said there is no response from the US on proposals extended by South Korea regarding a trade deal, including its request for a currency swap line. Earlier, Washington had agreed to lower tariffs on imports from South Korea in return for a $350 billion investment package, but follow-up negotiations on the matter have been stalled. 

 

Data Thursday showed South Korea's consumer price index rose 2.1% on year in September. Economists polled by Reuters had a forecast a 2.0% rise. This likely limited losses for the South Korean currency. 

 

The Philippine peso rose 0.2% against the greenback whereas the Thai baht and Chinese yuan traded steady. (Rati Chaphekar) 

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Oct 3

 

MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Friday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	88.85	88.60
Private-sector bank	88.90	88.60
Foreign bank	88.90	88.58
Brokerage firm	88.90	88.65
Brokerage firm	88.85	88.65
Brokerage firm	89.00	88.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Rati Chaphekar)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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