India Rupee Review
At record closing low; RBI's persistent dlr sales support
This story was originally published at 16:57 IST on 30 September 2025
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Tuesday, Sept. 30, 2025
By Rati Chaphekar and Pratiksha
MUMBAI – The rupee ended at a record closing low against the dollar for the second consecutive trading day owing to continuous dollar purchases on behalf of importers, dealers said. However, the Reserve Bank of India's relentless intervention through dollar sales limited losses for the Indian unit, they said.
"There was very strong intervention (by RBI). They are just not letting the rupee move too much. This has continued for many days now," a dealer at a state-owned bank said.
After hitting a lifetime low of 88.8025 a dollar during the day, the rupee settled at 88.7875 on Tuesday, against 88.7600 on Monday. The Indian unit traded in a tight range of 12 paise during the day.
Shortly before the domestic spot market opened, the rupee was trading at around 88.7700 a dollar in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market. However, it opened slightly higher at 88.6875 a dollar in the spot market as the Reserve Bank of India stepped in to sell dollars in the offshore NDF market, dealers said.
However, banks stepped in to buy dollars on behalf of importers, who wanted to make the most of the relatively lower dollar/rupee levels, which weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. Oil marketing companies and other importers also bought the greenback to meet their month-end and quarter-end payment requirements, they said. "Importers have stepped up hedging. Also, oil importers had a high demand (for dollars) as its month-end," a dealer at a state-owned bank said.
Dealers said dollar demand from importers has picked up owing to weak risk appetite amid the ongoing uncertainty around India-US trade negotiations. The rupee has depreciated 0.7% against the dollar this month.
While initially the RBI intervened actively around 88.7700 a dollar level to prevent the Indian unit from hitting a record low, the constant downward pressure on the currency eventually pushed it to a record low of 88.8025. However, the central bank then likely intervened through dollar sales to prevent the Indian unit from falling beyond the key technical support of 88.80 a dollar.
The RBI has been actively intervening in the spot market since last week to limit the depreciation in the Indian unit. On Tuesday, the central bank likely sold $1.5 to $2.0 billion in the spot market, some dealers said.
Meanwhile, market participants remained cautious ahead of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee's meeting outcome, due Wednesday. In a poll by Informist, a majority of economists said the RBI's rate-setting panel is likely to keep interest rates on hold for the second consecutive meeting Wednesday. However, four of the 15 economists polled said they expected a 25-bps rate cut.
The dollar index fell in European trade as investors braced for a possible US government shutdown that would halt economic data releases, including the crucial jobs report later this week. This also provided some support to the Indian unit, according to dealers.
US government funding will expire at midnight Tuesday unless Republicans and Democrats agree to a last-minute temporary spending deal. At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.76, against 97.94 Monday and 98.18 Friday.
| AT 1530 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 88.7875 | 88.6875 | 88.6875 | 88.8025 | 88.7600 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 205.96 | 206.46 | 207.54 | 204.50 | 205.59 |
FORWARDS
Dollar/rupee forward premiums ended lower across most tenures on Tuesday as the RBI likely sold dollars for near-tenure forward delivery, in order to neutralise its spot interventions and avert draining rupee liquidity, dealers said. The central bank is likely to have sold dollars for one- to two-month forward delivery, they said.
Given that spot dollar sales drain liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, thereby postponing the drain on systemic liquidity.
At 1530 IST, the one-month exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 1.84%, against the previous close of 1.89%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 13.86 paise, against 15.13 paise Monday.
Meanwhile, most traders avoided placing fresh bets ahead of the outcome of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Wednesday, dealers said. Forwards of a currency pair are reflective of the interest rate differential between the two countries.
At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.31%, against the previous close of 2.32%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 205.96 paise, against 205.59 paise Monday.
OUTLOOK
On Wednesday, the rupee may open steady as traders may exercise caution ahead of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee decision at 1000 IST, dealers said. "It is unlikely that a rate cut will happen, but if it does, 89 (a dollar) is not too far for rupee. It is just 20 paise away," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "I am not expecting much movement (in rupee) solely on dovish commentary."
Apart from the rate decision, market participants will watch out for RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra's comments on the Indian currency, liquidity management and future policy actions.
The rupee will also take cues from movement in the dollar index after the September US Consumer Confidence Index data and US August Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey, due later in the day, dealers said. Market participants will continue to closely monitor developments related to India-US trade talks and US tariffs. They expect weak risk appetite among investors amid uncertainty over US tariffs to continue weighing on the rupee.
Market participants expect importers to continue buying dollars, wary of a further decline in the rupee, which would exert downward pressure on the local unit. However, noting the central bank's relentless intervention in recent days, dealers expect the RBI to continue intervening through dollar sales and prevent the rupee from testing the psychologically crucial level of 89.00 a dollar.
The rupee is expected to move within a range of 88.50 to 88.90 against the dollar, with technical support for the rupee pegged at 89.00 per dollar.
India Rupee - World FX: Yen jumps on rate hike bets; Australian dlr up 0.5%
| AT 1510 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3450 | 1.3453 | 1.3421 | 1.3423 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1757 | 1.1762 | 1.1712 | 1.1728 |
| NZD/USD | 0.5802 | 0.5807 | 0.5774 | 0.5774 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6611 | 0.6614 | 0.6572 | 0.6574 |
| USD/JPY | 147.8590 | 148.8420 | 147.8450 | 148.5870 |
| USD/CAD | 1.3909 | 1.3924 | 1.3907 | 1.3915 |
| EUR/JPY | 173.8440 | 174.4140 | 173.6990 | 174.2000 |
| CHF/USD | 1.2560 | 1.2575 | 1.2525 | 1.2526 |
| EUR/CHF | 0.9360 | 0.9365 | 0.9342 | 0.9346 |
India Rupee - World FX: Yen jumps on rate hike bets; Australian dlr up 0.5%
MUMBAI = The Japanese yen rose 0.4% against the dollar after a summary of opinions at the central bank's September policy meeting Tuesday showed that Bank of Japan board members debated the feasibility of raising interest rates in the near term. Many opinions at the meeting called for caution over mounting inflationary pressure, increasing expectations of a rate hike in October. However, data Tuesday showed Japan's factory output fell more than expected while retail sales declined for the first time in over three years in August, which limited gains for the currency.
The Australian dollar rose 0.5% against the greenback after the Reserve Bank of Australia Tuesday left its policy rate steady at 3.60%, in line with market expectations, saying recent data indicated inflation might be higher than forecast in the third quarter and that the economic outlook remained uncertain. The more cautious commentary from the central bank led to market participants further trimming bets on rate cuts this year. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.3% against the dollar.
Further, the dollar index fell as investors braced for a possible US government shutdown that would halt economic data releases, including the crucial jobs report later this week. Government funding will expire at midnight Tuesday unless Republicans and Democrats agree to a last-minute temporary spending deal. At 1510 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.76, against 97.94 Monday and 98.18 Friday.
The pound sterling rose 0.1% against the greenback even after data Tuesday showed the UK's economy slowed in Apr-Jun. The UK GDP growth slowed to 0.3% in Apr-Jun from 0.7% in Jan-Mar.
The euro rose 0.2% against the dollar even after data released Tuesday showed unemployment rose more than expected in September in Germany, as the job market struggles to recover in a weak economy. In seasonally adjusted terms, the jobless figure rose by 14,000 to 2.98 million, surpassing the 8,000 increase forecast by analysts polled by Reuters. Data released Tuesday also showed that Germany's retail sales unexpectedly fell in August. (Rati Chaphekar)
India Rupee: Forward premiums fall as RBI likely sells near-tenure fwd dlrs
| AT 1415 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 88.7650 | 88.6875 | 88.6875 | 88.8025 | 88.7600 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 205.46 | 206.46 | 207.54 | 204.98 | 205.59 |
MUMBAI – Dollar/rupee forward premiums fell across tenures on Tuesday as the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars for near-tenure forward delivery, in order to neutralise its spot interventions and avert draining rupee liquidity, dealers said. The central bank is likely to have sold dollars for one- to two-month forward delivery, they said.
"The kind of intervention we are seeing in spot, there is no surprise that RBI is recieving," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "They are rolling over their earlier forward maturities, so forwards are going down."
The central bank has been actively intervening in the spot market to support the rupee since last week. The RBI intervened through dollar sales on Tuesday as well. The rupee fell to a record low of 88.8025 a dollar on Tuesday. Given that spot dollar sales drain liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, thereby postponing the drain on systemic liquidity.
At 1415 IST, the one-month exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 1.80%, against the previous close of 1.89%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 13.55 paise, against 15.13 paise Monday.
Meanwhile, most traders avoided placing fresh bets ahead of the outcome of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Wednesday, dealers said. Forwards of a currency pair are reflective of the interest rate differential between the two countries.
"I don't think there will be a rate cut this time, considering rupee weakness. The (RBI) governor may be a bit dovish that's all," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. In a poll by Informist, majority of the economists said the rate-setting panel is likely to keep interest rates on hold for the second consecutive meeting on Wednesday. However, four of the 15 economists polled said they expected a 25-bps rate cut.
At 1415 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.30%, against the previous close of 2.32%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 205.46 paise, against 205.59 paise Monday. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Touches record low; RBI's dlr sales offset importers' dlr buys
| AT 1150 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 88.7900 | 88.6875 | 88.6875 | 88.7975 | 88.7600 |
MUMBAI – The rupee touched its record low against the dollar as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, dealers said. However, public sector banks' dollar sales, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, limited losses for the Indian unit and prevented it from hitting a fresh lifetime low. The Indian currency fell to its lifetime low of 88.7975 a dollar, a level it had touched last week as well.
"Importers are buying (dollars) for their usual month-end payments, but we can see significant selling (of dollars) by nats (nationalised banks) that has maintained the level (of the rupee)," a dealer at a private-sector bank said.
Dealers said the central bank likely stepped in through dollar sales to prevent the Indian unit from falling beyond the key technical support of 88.80 a dollar. The RBI has been actively intervening around the current levels since last week. However, dealers said the intervention on Tuesday was not aggressive in nature.
"The level 88.80 (a dollar) has become psychologically crucial now, so we are seeing good selling (of dollars) at these levels for the past few days," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "The (RBI's) Monetary Policy Committee outcome might influence the direction of the rupee further."
Further, banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, who wanted to meet their month-end and quarter-end payment requirements, dealers said. Importers also bought dollars to make the most of the relatively lower dollar/rupee levels, which weighed on the Indian unit, they said. The Indian unit touched a high of 88.6875 earlier in the day.
Market participants remain cautious ahead of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee's meeting outcome, due Wednesday. According to a poll by Informist, a majority of economists said the RBI's rate-setting panel is likely to keep interest rates on hold for the second consecutive meeting Wednesday. However, four of the 15 economists polled said they expected a 25-bps rate cut.
For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 88.50 and 88.90 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 88.60 a dollar and support at 88.80. (Rati Chaphekar)
India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Sept 30
MUMBAI – At 1055 IST, the rupee was at 88.7500 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 88.6875 a dollar, against the previous close of 88.7600. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:
| Participants | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 |
| State-owned bank | 89.00 | 88.80 | 88.40 | 88.20 |
| Private-sector bank | 88.90 | 88.00 | 88.70 | 88.65 |
| Brokerage firm | 89.20 | 88.90 | 88.40 | 88.20 |
(Rati Chaphekar)
India Rupee: Tad up on RBI's likely dlr sales in NDF mkt; MPC outcome eyed
| AT 0945 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 88.7125 | 88.6875 | 88.6875 | 88.7600 | 88.7600 |
MUMBAI – The rupee rose slightly against the dollar as the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market before the opening of the spot market, dealers said. The central bank has been actively intervening in the offshore NDF market and spot market since last week to prevent the Indian unit from falling sharply.
Dealers expect the central bank to step in through dollar sales around the current dollar/rupee levels in the spot market as well to prevent the rupee from hitting a lifetime low. The Indian unit fell to a record low of 88.7975 a dollar last week.
"It (the rupee) looks range-bound today (Tuesday). Some upside bias (for the dollar/rupee) exists because of uncertainty on the tariff front," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. A weak risk appetite among investors persists as uncertainty about the India-US trade talks and US tariffs continues. The US has imposed a 50% tariff on Indian exports, 25% of which is for New Delhi's continuous buying of crude oil from Russia.
Market participants remain cautious ahead of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee's meeting outcome, due Wednesday. According to a poll by Informist, a majority of economists said the RBI's rate-setting panel is likely to keep interest rates on hold for the second consecutive meeting Wednesday. However, four of the 15 economists polled said they expected a 25-bps rate cut.
The dollar index was broadly steady as investors braced for a possible US government shutdown later in the day. At 0945 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.97, against 97.94 Monday and 98.18 Friday.
For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 88.50 and 88.90 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 88.60 a dollar and support at 88.80. (Rati Chaphekar)
India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed ahead of likely US govt shutdown; yuan steady
MUMBAI – Asian currencies traded on a mixed note against the dollar Tuesday as market participants remain wary of a possible US government shutdown later in the day, which might hamper economic data releases, including the crucial jobs report later this week. Investors also await the key consumer confidence index data due later in the day that may influence the rate cut trajectory of the Federal Reserve.
Government funding will expire at midnight Tuesday unless Republicans and Democrats agree to a last-minute temporary spending deal, with President Donald Trump and his opponents making little progress at a White House meeting. At 0930 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.93, against 97.94 Monday and 98.18 Friday.
The Chinese yuan was steady against the greenback even after data Tuesday showed China's manufacturing activity shrank for the sixth month in September. The purchasing managers' index rose to 49.8 in September, up from 49.4 in August. A number below 50 indicates contraction. The Taiwan dollar fell 0.2% against the dollar.
The South Korean won fell 0.3% against the dollar after the country's National Security Adviser Wi Sung-lac said it was difficult to be optimistic about striking a deal on a bilateral currency swap with the US. "While our government has proposed a currency swap, the US's track record suggests it won't be easy," Wi was quoted as saying in a report Tuesday. The country would need a currency swap agreement with the US if it accepted Washington's demands to invest $350 billion in America. The investment is a part of a trade deal in which the US would lower tariffs on South Korean goods.
The Thai baht fell 0.3% against the greenback, while the Philippine peso was flat against the greenback and the Malaysian ringgit rose 0.1%. The Philippines posted a trade deficit of $3.5 billion for August, preliminary data showed on Tuesday. Imports in August fell 4.9% from a year earlier to $10.6 billion, while exports increased 4.6% to $7.1 billion. The Indonesian rupiah fell 0.1% against the dollar. (Rati Chaphekar)
India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Sept 30
MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Tuesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:
| PARTICIPANT | SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
| State-owned bank | 88.85 | 88.50 |
| State-owned bank | 88.85 | 88.50 |
| Foreign bank | 89.00 | 88.55 |
| Brokerage firm | 88.85 | 88.65 |
| Brokerage firm | 89.00 | 88.55 |
| Brokerage firm | 89.00 | 88.50 |
(Rati Chaphekar)
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Avishek Dutta
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