Earnings Outlook
ICICI Bank Apr-Jun PAT seen up YoY on robust NII, may fall on quarter
This story was originally published at 09:17 IST on 18 July 2025
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Thursday, Jul. 17, 2025
By Sourabh Kumar
MUMBAI – ICICI Bank is expected to see steady year-on-year growth in net profit in the June quarter, driven by robust rise in its net interest income, according to brokerages tracking the private sector lender. However, the bank's performance is likely to be worse than the previous quarter due to compression in the net interest margin and a sharp rise in provisions, brokerages said.
According to the average of estimates from 15 brokerage firms, ICICI Bank is expected to report a 7.5% on-year increase in net profit to INR 118.88 billion. However, the measure is expected to decline nearly 6% sequentially. While Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd. provided the highest estimate for net profit at INR 127.09 billion, the lowest estimate was given by IIFL Capital Services Ltd. at INR 112.00 billion.
The net interest income of the bank is expected to rise 8.2% year-on-year to INR 211.61 billion. However, this is expected to be slightly lower than the previous quarter's net interest income of INR 211.93 billion.
ICICI Bank, as with most of the lenders, is expected to register a decline in its net interest margin in the June quarter. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. expects "margins to witness a decline due to rate cuts." Kotak Institutional Equities projects a 20-basis-point decline in ICICI Bank's net interest margin on a quarterly basis. "We expect commentary on NIM to be negative to factor the recent rate cuts and time taken for cost of term deposits to decline," Kotak Institutional Equities said in its report.
At the latest monetary policy committee meeting in early June, the Reserve Bank of India decided to cut the benchmark repo rate by an unexpected 50 bps to 5.50%. The committee also changed the policy stance to 'neutral' from 'accommodative'. That was the third consecutive meeting which resulted in a repo rate cut, starting February. The MPC had reduced the repo rate by 25 bps each in February and April, before cutting another 50 bps in June.
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. expects the effect of June rate cut on ICICI Bank's margins to "mostly" reflect in Jul-Sept. "ICICI has passed on the first 25 bps rate cut and two–thirds of the next 25 bps cut," Nuvama Wealth Management said in a report. The lowest estimate for ICICI Bank's net interest margin is given by Nuvama Wealth Management. It projects the net interest margin to fall to 2.00% in the June quarter.
"The bank should report higher margin contraction, but treasury gains coupled with lower loan-loss provisions should support earnings," Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. said in its report. The asset quality of ICICI Bank is expected to remain stable. IDBI Capital Market Services Ltd. said this will likely lead to better credit costs.
InCred Research Services Pvt. Ltd. expects the credit cost of ICICI Bank to rise 19 bps sequentially in the June quarter, but remain largely steady on a yearly basis. JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd. also expects the credit cost to increase in the June quarter. Kotak Institutional Equities also expects the credit cost to remain stable, leading to largely steady provisions. "We are building slippages of around 2% (around INR 70 billion)," Kotak Institutional Equities said in the report. "We don't expect any negative commentary on asset quality."
ICICI Bank's gross non-performing assets are expected to increase 6 bps sequentially but fall 42 bps year-on-year to 1.73% in Apr-Jun, according to Prabhudas Lilladher. It also expects the bank's provisions to jump sharply by nearly 65% sequentially to INR 14.67 billion. Though it is expected to increase relatively less, by 10% year-on-year.
Nuvama Wealth Management's estimates for provisions are also similar. It expects the provisions to rise to INR 14.4 billion in the June quarter. It expects slippages to increase sharply on quarter by almost 15% to INR 58.9 billion. However, it is expected to decline marginally by 0.4% on a yearly basis. The brokerage firm expects the bank's slippage ratio to increase 19 bps on quarter, but decrease 31 bps on year to 1.93%.
ICICI Bank's advances are expected to have risen nearly 12% in the June quarter to INR 13.69 billion, as per Nuvama Wealth Management. Though, sequentially, it is expected to rise only 2%. Prabhudas Lilladher also expects the private sector lender's loans to grow at a similar rate. IIFL Capital Services Ltd. expects the loan growth to be slightly slower at 11.4%.
IIFL Capital Services expects ICICI Bank's deposit growth to be 12.6% on year in the June quarter. Nuvama Wealth Management expects a slightly higher deposit growth of 12.9% for the bank in the June quarter. Key monitorables of ICICI Bank for analysts are asset quality, trajectory of net interest margin, and credit costs.
ICICI Bank is scheduled to release its June quarter earnings on Saturday. Since the previous earnings, shares of ICICI Bank rose 0.6% to INR 1,418.70 on the National Stock Exchange Thursday. On Thursday, shares of the private sector bank closed 0.5% lower on the National Stock Exchange.
Of 24 brokerage reports on ICICI Bank available with Informist, 23 have 'buy' rating at an average target price of INR 1,571. One brokerage firm has given a 'hold' rating at an average target price of INR 1,470.
Following are the Apr-Jun earnings estimates for ICICI Bank based on reports from 15 brokerage firms in descending order of the estimate of net profit:
| Brokerage Name | Net Interest Income (in INR million) | Net Profit (in INR million) |
| Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd | 2,17,884.00 | 1,27,094.00 |
| Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd | 2,13,451.00 | 1,23,818.00 |
| Kotak Institutional Equities | 2,07,104.00 | 1,23,198.00 |
| YES Securities (India) Ltd | 2,14,684.00 | 1,21,212.00 |
| Antique Stock Broking Ltd | 2,12,357.00 | 1,21,017.00 |
| IDBI Capital Market Services Ltd | 2,10,365.00 | 1,20,453.00 |
| Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd | 2,09,235.00 | 1,20,038.00 |
| Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt Ltd | 2,14,856.00 | 1,19,639.00 |
| Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd | 2,10,900.00 | 1,18,300.00 |
| Dolat Capital Market Pvt Ltd | 2,11,047.00 | 1,16,603.00 |
| Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd | 2,12,512.00 | 1,16,491.00 |
| JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd | 2,09,024.00 | 1,15,298.00 |
| Nomura Equity Research | 2,10,500.00 | 1,14,100.00 |
| InCred Research Services Pvt Ltd | 2,09,000.00 | 1,14,000.00 |
| IIFL Capital Services Ltd | 2,11,200.00 | 1,12,000.00 |
| Average | 2,11,607.93 | 1,18,884.07 |
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj
For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.
Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd, a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt Ltd.
Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000
Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com
© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2025. All rights reserved.
To read more please subscribe
Share this Story:
