Informist, Tuesday, Nov. 12, 2024

NEW DELHI – The 81 assembly seats in the tribal state of Jharkhand are set for a fierce contest. While the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance is making an aggressive bid to return to power in the state after five years, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha-led Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance is trying to hold on to its turf.

Tribal voters dominate the politics in Jharkhand, with 28 assembly seats reserved for the scheduled tribe category. The election will be held in two phases. Of the 43 seats going to polls in the first phase on Wednesday, 20 are reserved for scheduled tribes.

Political analysts see the tribal vote consolidated with JMM, especially after Chief Minister Hemant Soren's arrest by the Enforcement Directorate earlier this year helped the party gain the sympathy of tribals.

In the 2019 assembly election, the BJP could win just two tribal seats while the alliance between JMM and the Congress party bagged 25 seats. The BJP has ceded much ground in Jharkhand since 2014, when it won 11 out of 28 tribal seats and formed the government in the state as the NDA alliance crossed the majority mark of 41. In 2024 Lok Sabha election, too, the Congress-JMM alliance won all five tribal seats, clearly establishing the loyalty of tribal voters.

For any hope of reclaiming power in the state, it is imperative for the BJP to win significant tribal votes. The saffron party understands this and has been moving ahead strategically.

Unlike 2019, this time around, the BJP is contesting Jharkhand polls in alliance with All Jharkhand Students Union, Janata Dal (United) and Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas). The BJP will contest 68 seats, leaving 10 seats to All Jharkhand Students Union, two seats to JD(U) and one seat for Chirag Paswan-led LJP. Rejoining forces with former chief minister and tribal leader Babulal Marandi and onboarding of former chief minister and tribal leader Champai Soren, who quit JMM in August, have also been boosts for the BJP.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his rallies in Jharkhand, raised the issue of infiltration by Bangladeshis in tribal areas. Modi called the JMM-led alliance as infiltrators' alliance and "mafia ka ghulam" (mafia's slave) for allegedly supporting Bangladeshi infiltrators. He added that the security, prosperity and stability of tribals was at stake in the state, and that they could choose the path of "suvidha" (convenience) by voting in the BJP for a "double-engine government". The saffron party has also been claiming that increasing infiltration by Bangladeshis is diluting the tribal influence in the state. It further alleged that infiltrators are marrying tribal women to take over their land, and usurping jobs meant for locals in the state.

Several other senior leaders of the party, including Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, too, made similar remarks at election rallies.

Jharkhand-based political analyst Gyan Pathak said that Jharkhand offers a perfect setting for the BJP with nearly 30% tribal population, 15% Muslims and around 4% Christians. Ashok Srivastava, former media advisor of the then chief minister Babulal Marandi also concurred that Jharkhand is an ideal state from the BJP's perspective, as it seeks to polarise votes.

"There is an unrest at ground because Muslims have entered in tribal areas. The BJP is trying to polarise the anti-Muslim sentiments," Srivastava said, adding that the BJP was under the impression earlier that it has done a lot for tribal Hindus and would get their votes, but that didn't happen. Instead, the tribal and Muslims consolidated against the BJP, Srivastava said.

Pathak opined that the infiltrator pitch by BJP could backfire by further distancing the saffron party from tribals. "For the tribals, all, irrespective of caste and religion are outsiders. Tribals call them diku. The BJP’s attempt to make elections tribal vs infiltrators is opening old wounds. The entire tribal vote bank would shift to JMM, which has been considered as the saviour of tribal rights. Tribal has one leader and that is Shibu Soren," Pathak said.

Apart from the infiltration pitch, the BJP has offered a slew of freebies including a monthly INR 2,000 unemployment allowance, and free gas cylinder twice a year. It has also sought to tarnish Hemant Soren's image by underscoring charges of corruption. The BJP has also promised that it will exclude the tribals from the scope of the Uniform Civil Code, which the saffron party has pledged to implement in Jharkhand.

The voting pattern observed in the Lok Sabha election earlier this year would be an encouraging sign for the BJP. The alliance had won nine out of 14 Lok Sabha seats. Translating this equation into Assembly segments, the NDA had a lead in over 50 seats.

JMM-CONGRESS ALLIANCE

The JMM-Congress-led alliance has been betting on two primary factors – Chief Minister Soren's image as a major tribal leader and the state government's Maiya Samman Yojna for women. The alliance is optimistic of retaining the tribal seats which it had won in 2019. Pathak said the alliance is propagating the narrative of the attack on tribals, citing the arrest of Soren by the BJP-led Central government. "The narrative seems to be working at the ground. The tribals are consolidating behind Hemant Soren," Pathak said.

The JMM is also hopeful of striking a chord with women voters. According to political experts, women voters dominate 32 seats in the state. JMM has been aggressively playing up the Maiya Samman scheme to attract women voters. The alliance has also promised to increase the amount under the Maiya Samman scheme from INR 1,000 to INR 2,500 if it returns to power in the state. The Maiya Samman Yojana is a scheme introduced by the Jharkhand government with an aim to support women, particularly mothers, by providing them with financial assistance.

According to the seat-sharing agreement reached between the allies of the ruling JMM-led I.N.D.I.A bloc for the state's 81 seats, the JMM is contesting 41 seats and the Congress 30, with the RJD and the CPI(ML) Liberation allotted six and four seats, respectively. Experts believe that Congress may emerge as a weak point in the alliance. The party’s standing is not good in the urban areas where it would be in direct contest with the BJP. For Congress, there is a real possibility of repeating Bihar and Uttar Pradesh Lok Sabha elections and Jammu and Kashmir assembly election result, where the grand old party emerged as the weak link in the political alliances it forged.

CHAMPAI EFFECT

Kolhan is tribal belt in Jharkhand with around 14 seats. The BJP didn't win a single seat in this region in previous assembly election. However, with the joining of Champai Soren, the BJP hopes to make a mark in the region. Apart from Champai, former chief minister Madhu Koda's wife Geeta Koda and former chief minister and Union minister Arjun Munda's wife Meera Munda are also contesting Kolhan region. The BJP is banking on the Champai Soren effect to gain a significant foothold in the Kolhan region.

The second phase of elections in the state will be held on Nov. 20 along with Maharashtra and the results will be announced on Nov 23.

In the 2019 polls, the JMM-led alliance had bagged 47 seats, with the JMM winning 30 seats, Congress 16, and RJD 1. The BJP had won 25 seats. These numbers make the BJP the underdog, but the party is certainly putting up a tough fight. End

Reported by Kuldeep Singh

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd, a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt Ltd.

Informist Media Tel +91 (11) 4220-1000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2024. All rights reserved.