Informist, Tuesday, Nov. 12, 2024
NEW DELHI - India's industrial production rose in September, after having fallen for the first time in 22 months in August, the National Statistical Office said on Tuesday. As per the data, industrial growth, as measured by the Index of Industrial Production, rose to 3.1% in September, buoyed by a favourable base.
Industrial output had contracted 0.1% in August. It had grown 6.4% in September last year. At 3.1%, the latest IIP growth print is above the consensus estimate of 2.6%, as per an Informist poll.
For Apr-Sept, India's industrial output rose 4.0%, lower than the 6.2% recorded in the first half of 2023-24 (Apr-Mar).
In terms of sectors, the rise in industrial growth in September was driven by improved performance of all three, with mining and electricity production rising compared to last year after having fallen in August. Meanwhile, output of manufacturing sector--which accounts for more than three-fourths of the IIP--rose at a faster clip of 3.9% as against 1.1% the previous month.
However, the base effect was particularly favourable for electricity, with its index having fallen 6.6% month-on-month in September 2023 due to an improvement in rainfall after a dry August, thereby cooling demand for power. On the whole, the general index of the IIP rose 0.7% sequentially in September this year.
The use-based classification, too, saw an across-the-board improvement in performance, with production of primary and consumer non-durable goods rising in September on a year-on-year basis after shrinking in August. The sequential performance, however, was mixed as the output of primary, intermediate, and infrastructure goods, all declined in September compared to August.
In a positive, production of consumer durables rose 6.5% on year, suggesting robust consumption demand.
"This mixed performance across categories suggests resilient demand for durable goods amidst steady infrastructure and capital expansion, while primary goods' slower growth may indicate stabilising demand dynamics," Arsh Mogre, economist - institutional equities at Prabhudas Lilladher Capital, said. Despite the positive industrial growth number in September, Mogre warned the second quarter had seen "heightened downside risks due to domestic idiosyncratic challenges and soft global demand. Domestic urban consumption has shown signs of slowing, but rural consumption is poised to pick up, providing a potential offset".
The following tables detail year-on-year changes in industrial output in September:
| September 2024 | August 2024 | September 2023 | |
| General | 3.1% | (-)0.1% | 6.4% |
| Mining | 0.2% | (-)4.3% | 11.5% |
| Manufacturing | 3.9% | 1.1% | 5.1% |
| Electricity | 0.5% | (-)3.7% | 9.9% |
| Primary goods | 1.8% | (-)2.6% | 8.0% |
| Capital goods | 2.8% | 0.5% | 8.4% |
| Intermediate goods | 4.2% | 3.0% | 6.1% |
| Infrastructure/construction goods | 3.3% | 2.2% | 10.1% |
| Consumer durables | 6.5% | 5.3% | 1.0% |
| Consumer non-durables | 2.0% | (-)4.5% | 2.7% |
| Mining | Electricity | Manufacturing | General | |||||
| FY25 | FY24 | FY25 | FY24 | FY25 | FY24 | FY25 | FY24 | |
| Apr | 6.8% | 5.1% | 10.2% | (-)1.1% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.6% |
| May | 6.6% | 6.4% | 13.7% | 0.9% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% |
| Jun | 10.3% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% |
| Jul | 3.8% | 10.7% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.2% |
| Aug | (-)4.3% | 12.3% | (-)3.7% | 15.3% | 1.1% | 10.0% | (-)0.1% | 10.9% |
| Sep | 0.2% | 11.5% | 0.5% | 9.9% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 6.4% |
| Oct | 13.1% | 20.4% | 10.6% | 11.9% | ||||
| Nov | 7.0% | 5.8% | 1.3% | 2.5% | ||||
| Dec | 5.2% | 1.2% | 4.6% | 4.4% | ||||
| Jan | 6.0% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | ||||
| Feb | 8.1% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 5.6% | ||||
| Mar | 1.3% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | ||||
| Mining | Manufacturing | Electricity | General | |
| FY24 | 7.5% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.9% |
| FY23 | 5.8% | 4.7% | 8.9% | 5.2% |
| FY22 | 12.2% | 11.8% | 7.9% | 11.4% |
| FY21 | (-)7.8% | (-)9.6% | (-)0.5% | (-)8.4% |
| FY20 | 1.6% | (-)1.4% | 1.0% | (-)0.8% |
| FY19 | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 3.8% |
| FY18 | 2.3% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.4% |
| FY17 | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 4.6% |
| FY16 | 4.3% | 2.8% | 5.7% | 3.3% |
| FY15 | (-)1.4% | 3.8% | 14.8% | 4.0% |
| FY14 | (-)0.1% | 3.6% | 6.1% | 3.3% |
| FY13 | (-)5.3% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.3% |
Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation
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Reported by Siddharth Upasani
Edited by Tanima Banerjee
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