Earnings Outlook
NMDC Q2 PAT likely to be subdued on lower iron ore volumes
This story was originally published at 15:14 IST on 7 November 2026
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By Narayana Krishna
HYDERABAD - NMDC Ltd. is projected to report muted earnings for the September quarter due to a marginal fall in iron ore sales volumes and pricing pressure, according to analysts tracking the company. A fall in realisations due to price cuts is likely to drag down the earnings for the quarter.
The public-sector iron ore mining major is expected to report a consolidated net profit of INR 16.87 billion, flat on year but down 16% on quarter, according to the average of estimates from 12 brokerages. The revenue for the quarter is seen at INR 62.13 billion, down 1% on year and 9% on quarter, the estimates show.
The highest estimate for NMDC's September-quarter net profit is INR 19.7 billion from Mirae Asset Sharekhan Ltd. and the lowest is INR 13 billion from Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. The highest estimate for the company's revenues is INR 67.8 billion from Mirae Asset and the lowest is INR 58.6 billion from JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd.
NMDC sold 10.57 million tonnes of iron ore for the September quarter, down nearly 2% on year. The fall in sales was mainly due to monsoon-related disruptions in rake momentum, which is a primary source for transporting iron ore from Chhattisgarh. Adding to the pain, the price cuts during the quarter also impacted the iron ore miners' realisations, according to analysts. The company reported 12.2 million tonnes of iron ore production for the quarter.
NMDC cut its ore prices by INR 250 per tonne in July and INR 200 per tonne in August, before raising them by INR 150 per tonne in September. The company reviews its pricing on a monthly basis, following the domestic supply trends and global pricing of iron ore.
Blended iron ore realisations are expected to decline both on year and sequentially, reflecting price cuts early in the quarter, according to analysts. NMDC sells iron fines and lumps with a different pricing formula. The blended realisation for the quarter is expected to decline by INR 200 per tonne sequentially, according to JM Financial. Kotak Securities Ltd. and Equirus Securities Pvt. Ltd. expect a 1% on-quarter fall in realisations on price cuts.
Royalty costs should decline sequentially as the gap between production and sales narrows quarter-on-quarter, Equirus said. This will support the company's September quarter earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation per tonne growth of 4.3% on quarter and 17.4% on year to INR 2,196 per tonne, according to Equirus. Nuvama Wealth expects average iron ore realisation to increase by INR 418 per tonne year-on-year to INR 5,391 per tonne, although higher royalty costs are expected to offset much of the benefit.
NMDC's EBITDA is estimated at INR 20.41 billion for the September quarter, according to the average of 11 estimates. The projections range from INR 16.9 billion to INR 23 billion. EBITDA margin is estimated at 26.7–27.6%, with Kotak Securities projecting the lower end and Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd. the higher end, compared with 32.3% a year earlier.
The company is scheduled to announce its September-quarter earnings Thursday. Analysts will be tracking the status of production ramp-up plans of NMDC and the outlook for sales volumes for the current financial year. Friday, NMDC shares closed at INR 70.01 on the National Stock Exchange. The stock is up nearly 14% since the company announced its June-quarter earnings on Aug. 10. Of the 10 research reports on the company available with Informist, seven have a "buy" or equivalent recommendation on the stock with a target price of INR 97, while one has a "hold" rating with a target price of INR 90. Two brokerages have assigned a "sell" rating.
Following are earnings estimates for NMDC for the September quarter from 12 brokerages, in descending order of net profit estimates, in INR billion:
|
Brokerages |
Net Sales |
Net Profit |
EBITDA |
|
Mirae Asset Sharekhan Ltd. |
67.75 |
19.70 |
-- |
|
Equirus Securities Pvt. Ltd. |
60.19 |
18.91 |
23.04 |
|
Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd. |
67.10 |
18.60 |
21.60 |
|
Kotak Securities Ltd. |
60.14 |
18.18 |
22.08 |
|
ICICI Securities Ltd. |
61.17 |
17.85 |
20.72 |
|
Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd. |
63.44 |
17.79 |
21.44 |
|
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. |
61.48 |
17.04 |
20.38 |
|
Antique Stock Broking Ltd. |
59.78 |
16.84 |
20.50 |
|
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd. |
58.57 |
15.28 |
19.08 |
|
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. |
60.42 |
15.07 |
18.66 |
|
Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd. |
61.52 |
14.15 |
16.99 |
|
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. |
64.00 |
13.00 |
20.00 |
|
Average |
62.13 |
16.87 |
20.41 |
End
Edited by Himanshi Gupta
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