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Informist, Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2026

 

By Pratyush Kumar

 

NEW DELHI – Domestic auto despatches for September are likely to reflect continued demand for passenger and commercial vehicles, driving overall growth in the sector, brokerages said. Growth in volumes of these two segments is supported by healthy demand, goods and services tax cuts, new launches, higher alternate-fuel penetration, replacement demand, and improving economic activity, they added. Automobile companies will report their September monthly despatches on Thursday.

 

However, two-wheeler despatch volumes are expected to be flat, while tractor volumes are expected to decline, according to brokerages. With Navratri and Diwali in Oct-Nov, the festive period remains critical for inventory absorption of passenger vehicles and tractors, SMIFS Ltd. said.

 

Demand from retail consumers remained strong across all segments for the month under review, supported by a low base last year, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. said. The brokerage expects the four listed original equipment manufacturers of passenger vehicles to deliver an aggregate 18% wholesale growth for September, led by channel filling by dealers ahead of the festive season.

 

Premium motorcycles, sports utility vehicles, and scooters are expected to outperform, led by festive buying, dealer stocking, and favourable year-on-year base effect, Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd. said. The recent price hikes by original equipment manufacturers have not materially affected demand in September, Nomura Financial Advisory and Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd. said.

 

Wholesale despatches of two-wheelers are expected to remain flat year-on-year for September due to a high base and capacity constraints, Motilal Oswal said. Two-wheeler despatches are likely to sustain growth on the back of rising penetration in the electric segment, SMIFS said. Exports of major companies are expected to support despatches, led by rising volume across Africa, North America, and Asia, the brokerage added. Growth in this segment is expected to have been led by adequate financing options for consumers and a build-up in dealer inventories. 

 

The wholesale despatches for tractors are expected to be down 21% on year due to a shift in festive dates and last year's high base, Nomura said. Weak monsoon further added to the risks to rural demand, the brokerage added. This dip in tractor volumes is expected, particularly in the western and southern regions, due to an early start to the festive season, Nuvama said.

 

Wholesale despatches for medium, heavy, and light commercial vehicles are expected to have grown 12.5% on year for September, supported by continued demand, infrastructure spending, mining activity, replacement demand, and healthy e-commerce-linked logistics, Nirmal Bang said. The segments should benefit from steady freight activity and financing availability, it added.

 

INDUSTRY MAJORS

Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Ltd. is expected to post 12% on year volume growth for September, with healthy demand for Punch, Nexon, Sierra, and its electric vehicles, SMIFS said. Overall, tractor wholesale despatches for the two listed companies - Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. and Escorts Kubota Ltd. - are expected to decline 31.4% on year for September, Motilal Oswal said.

 

Hero MotoCorp Ltd. is expected to underperform the industry, with volumes declining due to a high base and six weeks of inventory, Motilal Oswal said. Hyundai Motors Ltd.'s volumes are expected to grow 5% on year, supported by healthy demand for Creta, Venue, and Exter, along with improved availability of new models, SMIFS said.

 

Bajaj Auto Ltd. is expected to deliver 8% on-year volume growth, supported by sustained domestic momentum and healthy export demand, SMIFS said. Royal Enfield is expected to report a 5% on-year growth, led by demand for 350 CC bikes, easing supply issues, and capacity additions, the brokerage added.

 

India's top car-maker Maruti Suzuki Ltd. is expected to report 21% on-year growth for the month under review, SMIFS said. The company's network inventory remains lean at 16 days, compared with the industry average of 38–40 days. Although dealer-level inventory is higher ahead of the festive season, the brokerage added.

 

Tata Motors Ltd. is expected to report total medium and heavy commercial vehicle volumes at 26,700 units for September, up 23% on year but down 11% on a monthly basis, Nirmal Bang said. The brokerage expects a 16% on-year rise in light commercial vehicle despatches. Ashok Leyland Ltd. is likely to report total medium and heavy commercial vehicles at 13,300 units, up 13% on year but down 3% on month, the brokerage added.

End

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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