Equity Alert
Oil marketing companies Q2 EBITDA to improve Quarter-over-Quarter, says JM Financial
This story was originally published at 13:30 IST on 21 September 2026
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Equity Alert: Oil marketing cos' Q2 EBITDA to improve QoQ, says JM Financial
MUMBAI--1215 IST-- JM Financial Institutional Securities expects earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation of Indian Oil Corp., Bharat Petroleum Corp., and Hindustan Petroleum Corp., to improve sequentially for the September quarter. This will be on the back of crude oil inventory gains, strong diesel crack-led gross refining margins, moderation in liquefied petroleum gas under-recoveries, and reduction in marketing losses of retail fuel.
IOC is expected to report an EBITDA of INR 107 billion for the September quarter, compared with INR 19 billion for the June quarter. BPCL is seen reporting an EBITDA of INR 80 billion for the quarter, an improvement from an EBITDA loss of INR 41 billion in the June quarter. Meanwhile, HPCL's EBITDA loss is likely to reduce to INR 27 billion from a loss of INR 161 billion for the same period.
The brokerage expects oil marketing companies' gross refining margins before deducting the special additional excise duty at $32–$40 per barrel for the September quarter, up from $24–$41 per barrel for the June quarter. This will be led by strong diesel cracks of $61.8 per barrel for the September quarter as compared to $54.7 per barrel for the June quarter. Petrol cracks moderated to $28 per barrel for the September quarter from $29.1 per barrel for the June quarter.
Gains on crude oil inventories are likely at $3 per barrel for IOC and $2 per barrel for BPCL and HPCL each, the brokerage said. The oil marketing companies are likely to report a sharp decline in under-recoveries for liquefied petroleum gas. Under-recoveries are seen at nearly INR 110 billion for the September quarter, down from INR 212 billion for the June quarter. JM Financial expects retail fuel marketing losses to decline to INR 17.5 per litre for the September quarter from INR 23.4 per litre for the trailing quarter. This reduction is due to the cumulative INR-7.5-per-litre hike in petrol and diesel prices each.
Given elevated crude oil prices and the likelihood of diesel cracks being strong in the near term, JM Financial reduced its EBITDA estimate for IOC and HPCL for the financial year 2026-27 (Apr-Mar). It revised its target price for shares of HPCL to INR 365 from INR 375. For the shares of IOC, it raised the target price slightly to INR 140 from INR 135. JM Financial raised the target price for shares of BPCL to INR 315 from INR 290 earlier and has not cut its EBITDA estimate for the company due to its industry-leading gross refining margins. The brokerage maintained its "reduce" call on the three stocks. (Ayush Jaiswal)
Equity Alert: IT demand seen weak given rate hike cycle, geopolitical issues
MUMBAI--1250 IST--Demand in the information technology sector is expected to be weak in the near term due to inflationary pressures stemming from global geopolitical tensions and a reversal in the interest rate cycle. In light of this, companies may be faced with higher capital expenditure requirements than what they had earlier anticipated, according to an analyst tracking the sector at a top broking firm.
At 1244 IST, the Nifty IT index was down 0.4% at 28740.30 points. Most constituents of the index were in the red, although select large-cap players saw gains, with HCL Technologies climbing nearly 2% and outperforming its peers. On the other hand, mid-cap player Oracle Financial Services Software was down nearly 7% and was the worst hit stock in the index.
Last week, the US Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate for the first time in three years to 3.75-4% from 3.5-3.75% in a widely anticipated move. Data from the CME FedWatch tool shows around 53% of the market participants expect the regulator to raise rates at its next meeting as well. "If you look at the interest rate cycle, it's not going to stop because the crude is higher. Inflation will remain elevated, and that will lead to further rate hikes possible going forward," according to the analyst. At 1244 IST, November futures of Brent Crude oil were down 2% at around $101 per barrel, having touched a high of $109.80 per barrel in the previous week.
"In the global context, geopolitically, the revenues are getting impacted for the clients. They might cut down the IT spend also. So, broadly, I do not see a major green shoot at this sector. One needs to be very stock specific," the analyst opined. He reiterated his positive view on mid-cap IT player Coforge, citing the company's execution strength, which places it ahead of its peers. The analyst also underscored that the company's relatively smaller size compared to large-cap players lends it the flexibility to better adapt to incoming developments in the sector. "So, one can remain bullish on that and any meaningful dip in the stock can be an opportunity to buy it," the analyst said. At 1244 IST, shares of the company were at INR 1,805, down 2%. Over the past 30 days, the stock has shed around 4%.
Commenting on US President Donald Trump's recent decision to delay the imposition of the $100,000 fee on H1B visas, the analyst said he does not see a meaningful ensuing impact on domestic IT companies. "The visa thing is, I think, a very small thing as of now, given the global context and the other prominent things which are impacting the sector. (Shruti Nair)
Equity Alert: Pharma stocks rise; defensive buying, pdt pipeline aid sector
MUMBAI--1248 IST--Shares of pharmaceutical companies traded with positive sentiment Monday. Other than the long ongoing defensive buying in the sector, upcoming launch pipelines and regulatory approval for new drugs is leading to a structural change in the sector, and investors are optimistic about these changes. These companies are expected to continue their earnings momentum as well, according to an analyst tracking the sector.
Recently, analysts were of the view that the pharma sector saw defensive buying amid volatility in the equity market due to macroeconomic concerns. The gains in pharma stocks cannot be attributed just to defensive buying, according to Maitri Sheth, equity research analyst at Choice Institutional Equities. The launch pipeline of pharmaceutical players provides optimism for further growth, according Sheth. Recently, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories signed an agreement with Takeda Biopharmaceuticals India, the Indian arm of Japanese major Takeda Pharmaceutical Co., to exclusively distribute India's first dengue vaccine, Qdenga, in the private market.
The Nifty Pharma and Nifty Healthcare rose over 1?ch, the top gainers among sectoral indices. More than half of the constituents of the Nifty Pharma index traded higher. Nifty 50 pharma players Sun Pharmaceutical Industries and Dr. Reddy's Laboratories rose around 2?ch. Mankind Pharma, Wockhardt, and Laurus Labs gained 3–6%. (Adhithya Aji)
Equity Alert: Easing norms to aid ICICI Lombard FY28 growth view, says Emkay
MUMBAI--1230 IST--ICICI Lombard General Insurance Co.'s outlook for 2027-28 (Apr-Mar) and beyond is expected to be better as tightening of commission norms and a potential hike in third party motor insurance premium is likely to offset the impact of adverse regulatory developments, Emkay Global Financial Services said after an interaction with the top management of the company. Adding to that, the brokerage sees a growth in the September quarter net profit due to the National Stock Exchange's market debut.
Recently, multiple media reports said the Insurance Regulatory Authority of India will issue a consultation paper that will clarify the new commission norms. Insurance companies that provide direct insurance products are expected to pay lower commissions to third-party intermediates, as per the reports. "Over the medium term, the company sees positive impact from any commission limit tightening...," Emkay said. Adding to this, a motor third party tariff hike is also expected to offset the weakness caused by the Supreme Court's Shishu Pal judgement, according to the brokerage.
The Nepal floods did not have an impact on the company's performance, according to the company's management. The management expects the business-as-usual impact of multistate floods in recent months, relatively lesser incidences of vector-borne disease, and no need for extra provision in motor third party on account of the Shishu Pal judgement to help with the company's profitability, according Emkay.
ICICI Lombard Insurance is already facing the impact of the Supreme Court's Shishu Pal judgement, where the top court imposed "Loss Domestic Care" compensation for the families of deceased homemakers in road accidents. The impact was coupled with no hike in third party motor accidents in FY27 so far, Emkay said. Extreme pricing irrationality by the competition in the insurance products in certain business segments also weighed down on the company's profitability, the brokerage added.
The initial public offering of the National Stock Exchange is expected to have a positive impact on the September quarter performance with a gain of INR 2.87 billion on the bottom line and fair value gains rising to INR 34.9 billion, Emkay said. The company is part of the 11-member domestic group holding a 20.86% share in the pre-offer for sale in the initial public offering.
Emkay has maintained its "add" recommendation on the stock and kept the target price unchanged at INR 1,900. The valuation on the stock turned favourable after the recent underperformance. At 1217 IST, shares of the company traded nearly 4% higher at INR 1,509.70 apiece on the NSE. Over 800,000 shares of the company have changed hands on the NSE so far. This is nearly three times higher than the number of shares traded at the same time Friday. Over the last 30 days, the stock has shed nearly 7% and over the last 90 days the stock has fallen over 19%. (Utthara E. S.)
Equity Alert: Indices gain as pharma, FMCG, financial services cos up
MUMBAI--1200 IST--Benchmark indices gained slightly, supported by pharmaceutical and fast-moving consumer goods companies. Shares of Nifty 50 heavyweight HDFC Bank rose further to over 1%. Bharti Airtel fell more to over 3% to be the worst hit in the index. Select financial services stocks also supported gains, with HDFC Life Insurance Co. becoming one among the top gainers, up around 2.5%.
At 1153 IST, the Nifty 50 was up 0.3% at 23423.50 and the BSE Sensex was up 0.8% at 74856.24 points. Shares of most pharma companies were up, with Sun Pharmaceutical Industries gaining over 2% to lead gains in the Nifty 50 index. Mankind Pharma and Wockhardt remained up and were around 5% higher each, while Piramal Pharma gained more and was up nearly 3%. Select bank and financial services stocks were up with Kotak Mahindra Bank and SBI Life Insurance Co. gaining around 2?ch. The sectoral Nifty Pharma index was up for the third consecutive day and gained more than 1%.
FMCG companies traded higher. Shares of ITC and Tata Consumer Products gained further and were up 1–2%. Hindustan Unilever was up over 1%, while Patanjali Foods rose more to almost 7%. The Nifty FMCG index was up more than 1%. Major information technology stocks remained lower. Shares of Wipro and Infosys fell more than 1?ch. Oracle Financial Services was down 7%.
Shares of Tega Industries rose more and were up around 8% as the company's subsidiary received an INR 1.26-billion contract from Kalpataru Projects. Broader market indices were mixed as small-caps turned higher and were up around 0.1?ch, while mid-caps were flat to down 0.3%. Shares of Oracle Financial were the worst hit in the Nifty 200 and Nifty 500 indices, while Jaiprakash Power Ventures was the top gainer in the Nifty 500, up nearly 11%. Patanjali Foods was the top gainer in the Nifty 200. (Vidhi Thacker)
Equity Alert:Jaiprakash Power up 14%; Adani Power denies raising stake in co
MUMBAI--1145 IST--Shares of Jaiprakash Power Ventures rose almost 14% to the day's high of INR 17.49 Monday, extending gains for a second consecutive session. The stock rose significantly, reversing almost 8% loss incurred during seven straight sessions till Thursday a week ago. Volumes of shares traded so far rose 25 times of those traded on Friday. Saturday, Adani Power denied reports of a stake increase in Jaiprakash Power to 51%.
Adani Power Friday said reports of the company increasing its stake in Jaiprakash Power Ventures to 51% are "entirely false." Responding to an article by Moneycontrol.com, the company said it has not undertaken any such action, as claimed in the article. The media report had said the company would purchase a 2% stake in Jaiprakash Power through the secondary market, triggering a subsequent mandatory open offer to acquire an additional 25% stake from public shareholders.
At 1129 IST, shares of the company were trading over 11% higher at INR 17.08 on the NSE. So far in the day, nearly 400 million shares of the company have changed hands on the exchange, higher than over 16 million shares traded till the same time Friday. (Arundathi A R)
Equity Alert: Benchmark indices tad off highs; Bharti Airtel, Adani cos drag
MUMBAI--1100 IST--Benchmark indices came slightly off highs though more than half the Nifty 50 constituents remained in the green. Gains in pharmaceuticals and financial services stocks helped the index to remain in the green. Select heavyweights and fast-moving consumer goods companies also supported gains in the index. On the other hand, Bharti Airtel and Adani group companies were major laggards on the headline index. Information technology stocks were the other major laggards.
At 1030 IST, the Nifty 50 was at 23369.35 points, up 0.1%, and the BSE Sensex was at 74645.08 points, up 0.5%. The India VIX was up nearly 2%. The Nifty 50 touched a nearly one-week intraday high at 23410.75 points.
In the Nifty 50, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries was up nearly 3% and was the top gainer in the index. Its peers, Dr.Reddy's Laboratories and Max Healthcare Institute, were up over 1% and 0.3%, respectively. The index tracking the sector was up over 1% and was the top gainer among sectoral indices. Financial services stock HDFC Life Insurance Co. was up 2.5%, while shares of its peer SBI Life Insurance Co. were up 2%.
Heavyweights Reliance Industries and HDFC Bank lent most support to the index, and were up 0.5–1%. FMCG players ITC, Hindustan Unilever, and Tata Consumer Products also supported the gains, each were up over 1%. The Nifty FMCG was up almost 1%. Analysts expect some FMCG stocks to recover this week after a sharp correction.
Meanwhile, a fall in telecom operator Bharti Airtel weighed on the index. The scrip was down nearly 3% and was the major laggard in the 50-stock index, limiting further gains on the index. IT stocks Infosys and Wipro were down over 1?ch. The Nifty IT was down 0.4% and was the major laggard among sectoral indices. Analysts see IT stocks likely to consolidate in the near term amid persistent concerns over global technology spending and discretionary demand in a higher-for-longer interest rate environment. Adani group companies, Adani Ports And Special Economic Zone and Adani Enterprises shares fell 2% and 1%, respectively.
Broader market indices remained lower, with small-cap indices falling 0.1?ch and mid-cap indices falling 0.1–0.4%. Among the Nifty 200 members, Adani Total Gas was down over 3%. Oracle Financial Services Software was the top drag on the Nifty 200 index, down over 6%. Meanwhile, Patanjali Foods and Mankind Pharma were up over 5?ch. (Deesha Jadhav)
Equity Alert: Manika Plastech lists at issue price; hits lower circuit later
MUMBAI--1020 IST--Shares of Manika Plastech listed at the issue price of INR 43 on the bourses before hitting the 5% lower circuit at INR 40.85 on the NSE. Nearly 7 million shares have been traded so far on the NSE. The stock hit the lower circuit of INR 40.86 on BSE, down nearly 5%, and over 425,000 shares exchanged hands on the exchange.
The company's initial public offering closed on Wednesday and was subscribed over 28 times, with bids placed for 601.8 million shares against 21.39 million shares on offer. Ahead of the offer, the company had raised INR 376.5 million from anchor investors by allotting 8.76 million shares at INR 43 per share.
Manika Plastech is a design-led company manufacturing precision-engineered rigid polymer packaging that caters to diversified critical industries such as energy storage, dairy and edible food products, paints, and chemicals. The company reported a consolidated net profit of INR 130.72 million on revenues of INR 1.62 billion for the June quarter. (Vidhi Thacker)
Equity Alert: Benchmarks open higher on gains in heavyweights; IT cos fall
MUMBAI--0934 IST--Indian headline indices opened in the green as crude oil prices eased on reports that China has requested Iran to help scale back attacks on Saudi Arabia by Yemen's Houthis. Most stocks in the Nifty 50 index gained. The BSE Sensex posted sharper gains. The Nifty 50 did see some selling pressure near 23400 points, but gains in heavyweights lent support.
Riyadh has requested Beijing to ask Tehran to help limit the Houthis' attacks, Reuters reported, citing sources. "China does not wish to see regional tensions further spill over into Yemen and the Red Sea. Escalating regional instability is not in the interests of any party," the Chinese foreign ministry said in response to the media agency's request for comments. Brent crude oil futures fell for the fourth straight session but remained near $101 per barrel.
At 0920, the Nifty 50 was at 23381.65 points, up 0.2% from Friday and the BSE Sensex was at 74715.19 points, up 0.6%. The broader market indices slightly lagged the benchmarks. The small-cap indices were flat while the mid-cap indices were 0.2% down. The volatility gauge, India VIX, rose slightly to 11.5975.
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, up over 2%, was the top gainer in the Nifty 50 index. Shares of InterGlobe Aviation rose nearly 2% as crude oil prices came off their recent highs. The IndiGo airliner operator was among the top gainers in the 50-stock index. Meanwhile, banking heavyweight HDFC Bank, up 1.4%, lent most support to the key index. On the other hand, Bharti Airtel was the top drag on the index. The stock fell over 2%. Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone fell nearly 3% to be the major laggard in the blue-chip index.
The Nifty IT index extended its losses from Friday and was down 1% in early trade. Shares of Oracle Financial Services fell 3.5%, Coforge and Wipro around 2?ch, and Infosys declined more than 1%. Tata Consultancy Services and HCL Technologies rose only modestly. On the banking front, private sector banks performed better than the public sector ones. The Nifty Private Bank index and the Nifty Bank index were in the green, while the Nifty PSU Bank index was flat.
In some news-based stock moves, shares of Jaiprakash Power Ventures surged almost 12%. The company had said Saturday that it will pay INR 5.11 billion to National Asset Reconstruction Co. to settle insolvency proceedings against it. Jaiprakash Power was the top winner in the Nifty 500 universe. (Ruchira Kagita)
Equity Alert: Asian markets up as crude oil prices fall, tech stocks gain
MUMBAI--0840 IST--Asian markets rose Monday as crude oil prices eased and technology stocks rose. South Korea's benchmark Kospi rose the most, followed by China's CSI 300 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng. The November futures contract for Brent crude oil eased slightly on hopes of hostilities in West Asia abating. However, crude oil prices remained above $100 per barrel.
Markets in Japan will be closed till Wednesday because of the Silver Week holiday. In South Korea, shares of Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Square rose over 4?ch while SK Hynix was up nearly 1%. Samsung Electro-Mechanics Co. gained 2% in early trade.
In Hong Kong, heavyweights Tencent Holdings, Alibaba Group Holding, and Xiaomi Corp. rose around 2?ch. The FTSE Singapore Strait Times was marginally up while Australia's S&P/ASX was flat.
Following are the levels of key indices in the region at 0800 IST:
|
Index |
Level |
Change in % |
|
S&P/ASX 200 Index |
8733.50 | 0.03 |
|
KOSPI Index |
6993.02 | 1.43 |
|
Hang Seng Index |
24868.75 | 0.48 |
|
CSI 300 Index |
4528.52 | 0.47 |
|
FTSE Singapore Strait Times |
5672.92 | 0.30 |
(Ayush Jaiswal)
Equity Alert: Crude oil prices above $100/bbl to keep indices in range
MUMBAI--0832 IST--Indices are expected to move in a range as high crude oil prices are likely to limit gains. The November futures of Brent crude oil remained above the psychological mark of $100 per barrel. Even though prices came off lows from last week's level, it is still not enough to improve sentiment for Indian equities. Key Asian indices opened higher Monday while Wall Street indices ended mixed Friday.
At 0827 IST, the November futures of Brent crude oil were down 2% at $101.56 per barrel. Over the last week, prices have fallen nearly 3%. Prices were down for the fourth consecutive session but provided no breather for import-dependent India, since it is still up nearly 40% from the levels seen before the start of the war in West Asia in February.
The war, which has shaken the global energy market, continued with no signs of a breakthrough for peace. Iran's security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, laid out a set of conditions to end the war, at the same time threatening to intensify attacks on US assets in the region. "We will confront America with greater force, and with more numerous and more painful strikes," Rezaei said in an interview with Al-Jazeera.
Friday, the Nifty 50 ended 0.3% higher at 23346.40. The resistance for the 50-stock index is expected at around 23450–23600, according to Vipin Kumar, senior technical and derivatives analyst at Globe Capital Market. "Because the broader chart structure remains bearish, a 'sell-on-rise' stance is recommended as long as the index trades below this ceiling," Kumar said. A closing below 23000 is likely to accelerate further downside for the index. "Key macro concerns—such as elevated crude oil, a weakening INR, and persistent inflation—continue to cap overall upside," Kumar added.
Shares of Welspun Corp. are likely to be in focus after its Saudi Arabia-based associate company, East Pipes Integrated Co. for Industry, received an order worth INR 20 billion from Saudi Aramco to manufacture and supply steel pipes. (Adhithya Aji)
Equity Alert: US markets close mixed Fri; Nasdaq, S&P 500 advance
MUMBAI--0730 IST--US markets closed on a mixed note Friday as the 10-year Treasury yield rose 6 basis points and crossed 5.00% again and crude oil prices remained above $100 per barrel. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite ended in the green, driven by positive momentum in stocks related to semiconductor equipment making and cryptocurrency. The S&P 500 ended modestly higher. However, weakness in select stocks pulled the Dow Jones lower.
For the week, the S&P 500 was down for the second time in a row, while the Nasdaq Composite closed higher. Meanwhile, the blue-chip Dow Jones suffered its biggest weekly percentage decline since March. The Dow fell for the third straight week, down almost 2%. Over the three weeks, it shed 3.5%. "A lot of investors are trying to figure out not just the short-term implications, but longer-term implications of what the Fed may be embarking on and how that's going to impact equities and fixed-income investments," Reuters quoted Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer of Horizon Investment Services in Indiana, as saying.
"The market seems to be closely tied to movements in oil prices," Carlson said. "So when they are trending higher for any short period of time, I think you get a little bit more of a respite in the market." The 10-year yield, which climbed above 5% briefly rose back above that threshold after sliding Thursday. It was last up almost at 5.006%.
Friday, shares of Advanced Micro Devices and Broadcom rose almost 3%. The S&P 500 Information Technology sector was up almost 1%, and it was the top performer among the 11 S&P 500 sectoral indices. In the Nasdaq, 1,973 stocks rose and 2,810 fell. The rise in prices of bitcoin led to a 9-21% rise in shares of Coinbase, Strategy, and Robinhood.
Following are the closing levels of key indices in the region Friday.
|
Index |
Level |
Change in % |
|
Dow Jones Industrial Average |
51682.64 | (-)0.2 |
|
NASDAQ Composite |
26522.55 | 0.4 |
|
S&P 500 |
7560.50 | 0.2 |
(Ayush Jaiswal)
US$1 = INR 95.83
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Himanshi Gupta
All prices from National Stock Exchange, unless otherwise specified.
All percentage changes for share prices are rounded off to the nearest whole number; percentage changes for index values are rounded off to one decimal place.
All times are Indian Standard Time.
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