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Informist, Tuesday, Sept. 15, 2026

 

By Anshul Choudhary

 

MUMBAI – The Nifty 50 index is possibly at a key juncture, one that will decide whether it stays range-bound for some time or see a larger fall. For now, there remains the possibility of further fall in benchmark indices over the coming sessions, but analysts are largely convinced the fall will be limited. The Nifty 50 index is expected to fall to 23000-23100 points in the near term if crude oil remains at current levels, but the index could fall below these levels if there are fresh negative cues.

 

"Nifty 50 is trading below daily and hourly averages so trend is negative...but downside may be limited," Jay Vora, technical analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan, said. "I expect limited fall because short position in major stocks are extreme...further fall considering such large shorts can be difficult."

 

This was visible in the options chain as 23200-point put options expiring next week saw the highest open interest addition, indicating hopes of some recovery by the next weekly expiry. However, sentiment around the Nifty 50 index could turn bleak quickly if current levels do not hold and further fall now may trigger sharper selling, technical analysts said. Open interest addition suggests the Nifty 50 index is likely to fall below 23000 points if current levels do not hold in the coming sessions. Tuesday, the Nifty 50 index closed at 23118.60 points, down 1.2% from Friday. Equity markets were shut for trading on Monday due to Ganesh Chaturthi.

 

The Nifty 50 index fell sharply after opening higher and settled 2?low its intraday high. This pushed traders to sell call options across the board with premiums for at-the-money contracts dropping 50%. Expectations of any significant bounceback remain low with the US Federal Reserve set to announce its policy outcome Wednesday. The call options at 23400 point witnessed the highest open interest addition, indicating the possibility of a 1% rise from the current level. The Nifty 50 index is down 4% so far this month, having declined nearly 1,000 points from August-end level.

 

The CME FedWatch tool indicates more than 90% probability of the US central bank committee increasing its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%. An interest rate hike in the US will be negative for emerging markets such as India, which may see outflows, further putting selling pressure on equities.

 

Futures contracts fell Tuesday, in line with the spot index, while open interest increased 3%, indicating traders added short positions. The September futures contract of the Nifty 50 ended at a premium of 101 points to the spot index on Tuesday.  

 

--Nifty 50 September closed at 23220, down 265.20 points; 101.40-point premium to the spot index
--Nifty 50 October closed at 23336, down 250.60 points; 217.40-point premium to the spot index

--Nifty 50 November closed at 23435, down 251.00 points; 316.40-point premium to the spot index

 

HDFC Bank, Solar Industries, Infosys, Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, Tata Consultancy Services, BSE, State Bank of India, One 97 Communications, and Coforge were the most actively traded underlying stocks Tuesday.  End

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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