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Informist, Friday, Sept. 11, 2026

 

MUMBAI – Shares of fast-moving consumer goods companies are likely to fall further as a steep rise in crude oil prices and concerns over the profit margin of these companies continue to be a major overhang. Some tickers on technical charts signal chances of a bounce-back, but fundamentals are mostly incongruent with the bull case for the sector. 

 

"With Brent (crude oil price) holding above $100 a barrel, the highest since late July, the sectoral pinch is becoming clearer, and this is a supply-driven move rather than a demand story," Rajeev Sharan, head of research at Brickwork Ratings, said. The FMCG sector will feel the pinch through higher freight and packaging costs, he said. While price hikes to pass on costs have so far helped FMCG companies, there is growing concern that these hikes may lead to down trading in consumer products, hurting the profitability of these companies. Many of the players in this sector have also guided for a drop in volumes in the September quarter, which has added to investor pessimism.

 

Despite concerns of high inflation, FMCG demand has been robust, according to data from market research firms Bizom and Wordpanel. Value growth in the sector improved sequentially to 6.8% in the June quarter and volumes held steady at 4.5–5%. However, early indications suggest some moderation in FMCG consumption, particularly on urban demand. Rural demand, which was expected to be hit due to a poor monsoon, has remained resilient, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers, said. Pricing, grammage cuts, and cost efficiency are helping the companies in managing input cost inflation, the brokerage said. The brokerage expects a 10% compounded annual growth in revenues over the financial year 2025-26 (Apr-Mar) to FY28, which will help drive earnings growth of around 15%. Companies under its coverage registered a 7% on-year revenue growth and 5% bottom line increase in FY26.

 

In the last 30 days, the Nifty FMCG index has declined 7.7%. In the last three months, the index is down over 8%. A sharp correction has given analysts confidence that some of the heavyweight stocks present a good buying opportunity from a long-term perspective. Given the combination of the correction magnitude, the time-wise bottom formation, and the chart geometry, the sector offers price-wise comfort for accumulation.

 

Within the space, small- and mid-cap stocks have outperformed large-cap FMCG names on both a relative and absolute basis, and select mid-cap ideas such as Balrampur Chini Mills complement the large-cap accumulation candidates such as Godrej Consumer Products and Dabur India, Emkay Global Financial Services said in a report. 

 

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Following are the resistance and support levels for key FMCG stocks for next week as per calculations based on their prices on the National Stock Exchange:

 

Company	Price	Week-on-week  change in %	Resistance	Support
AWL Agri Business	185.02	(-)1.20	188.90	179.00
Britannia Industries	4,962.00	(-)2.70	5,040.70	4,905.70
Colgate-Palmolive India	1,797.40	(-)1.70	1,810.90	1,775.30
Dabur India	376.00	(-)1.30	379.90	370.10
Emami	363.80	(-)0.60	372.60	358.60
Godrej Consumer Products	865.00	(-)1.50	879.10	851.90
Hindustan Unilever	1,927.00	(-)2.40	1,953.70	1,912.90
ITC	259.85	(-)1.60	263.70	255.80
Jyothy Labs	195.06	(-)3.20	197.80	192.60
Marico	802.10	(-)1.60	816.90	788.30
Nestle India	1,383.30	(-)1.90	1,413.70	1,358.30
Procter & Gamble Hygiene and Health Care	7518.00	(-)2.00	7586.30	7473.30
Tata Consumer Products	991.00	(-)1.90	1005.00	981.00
Varun Beverages	416.50	2.20	426.40	398.10
Index	Levels
Nifty FMCG	45053.75	(-)1.80	45503.10	44600.90
Nifty 50	23398.10	(-)2.10	23575.90	23142.50
S&P BSE Sensex	74781.76	(-)2.30	75376.70	73862.70

 

End

 

Reported by Eshitva Prakash

Edited by Shubhayan Bhattacharya

 

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