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Informist, Friday, Sept. 11, 2026

By Eshitva Prakash

 

MUMBAI – Traders are betting on a near-term recovery in the Nifty 50 after the headline index Friday rebounded from intraday lows on a retreat in crude oil prices, leading to short covering. A decline in open interest at key levels suggests many traders closed their positions ahead of the weekend as an escalation in the war in West Asia poses key downside risk for the markets. Traders await US consumer price index data slated for release later in the day for cues on the US Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory.

 

Premiums at the call contract with a 23400 strike price rose nearly 5% as the Nifty 50 bounced from intraday lows. Traders also bought further out-of-the-money strikes, albeit with a later expiration than Tuesday. Traders continued to sell out-of-the-money call contracts expiring Tuesday, mainly due to high theta decay and pessimism over the war in West Asia. Premiums across 23600-23800 strike prices declined up to 50%. Premiums on the 23500 strike price fell slightly but remained quite expensive, indicating some optimism for a stronger rebound in the headline index.

 

On the other side of the options chain, put sellers exited their short positions, leading to a fall in open interest on various in-the-money contracts. Sellers also covered their short positions, fearing a rebound on Monday. However, some bets suggest many traders still expect the Nifty 50 to test 23000 levels, with premium at the 23000 strike price for contracts expiring Sept. 29 rising over 8% to INR 83.35. A fall in open interest at various call options also shows long unwinding ahead of the weekend.

 

On Friday, the Nifty 50 ended at its lowest close in three months at 23398.10 points, down 0.3% from Thursday but up 0.7% from the session's lows. The put-call ratio for the headline index improved to 1 from 0.6 on Thursday, indicating a slightly positive turn in sentiment. A 2% jump in shares of index heavyweight HDFC Bank helped prevent a steep decline in the 50-stock index. Some value buying and a depreciation in the rupee led to a rise in shares of some information technology stocks. Metal stocks remained weak, and a fall in shares of companies dependent on crude derivatives also put pressure on the Nifty 50. Despite the rebound, weak market breadth suggests broader consolidation persists.

At 1652 IST, the November futures contract of Brent Crude oil traded 3.6% lower from Thursday at $103.76 per barrel on the Intercontinental Exchange. This level is nearly 6% lower than the contract's intraday highs. However, crude oil prices remained elevated, limiting the chances of a meaningful rebound in the headline index. High producer inflation and strong US economic data reinforced expectations of tighter monetary policy, pushing bond yields higher and resulting in outflows from foreign institutional investors.

 

"There are no signs that price pressures (in the US) are broadening out," Dow Jones Newswires quoted Eugene Leow, economist at DBS Group Research, as saying. A 0.4% month-on-month rise in US CPI and a 0.3% rise in core CPI will be the "minimum to nudge market participants" to increase the odds of imminent tightening, he said. Conversely, a 0.2% reading in both figures would likely push the odds of imminent tightening closer to zero. "A strong CPI print would likely lead the market to front-load the hike cycle, rather than to price in even more hikes," Leow said. 

 

--Nifty 50 September closed at 23499.00, up 15 points; 100.90-point premium to the spot index
--Nifty 50 October closed at 23604.00, up 20 points; 205.90-point premium to the spot index

--Nifty 50 November closed at 23700.00, up 1.70 points; 301.90-point premium to the spot index

 

HDFC Bank, One 97 Communications, BSE, LIC Housing Finance, Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Vodafone Idea, Axis Bank, and Cochin Shipyard were the most actively traded underlying stocks Friday.

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 95.55

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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