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Informist, Friday, Sept. 11, 2026

 

By Arundathi A R

 

MUMBAI – Analysts expect benchmark equity indices to consolidate in the short term amid higher crude oil prices. Oil prices will remain the key factor in dictating the market's direction in the coming days. Developments in the US-Iran war will also be under focus amid the ongoing escalation in the conflict. According to reports, US President Donald Trump Thursday said he does not regret the Iran war despite the impact the conflict may have on the November US mid-term elections. 

 

"Crude oil prices are currently creating an inflationary environment across the globe," Kranthi Bathini, equity strategist at WealthMills Securities Pvt. Ltd., said. He expects stock-specific movement in the coming days and said majority of the action would take place in the mid-cap and small-cap spaces.

 

"For an economy importing over 85% of its crude, estimates suggest every $10 a barrel adds about $13 billion-$14 billion to the yearly import bill and can lift retail inflation by 30 to 50 basis points," Rajeev Sharan, head of research at Brickwork Ratings, said in a note. "From a credit view, a brief spike is usually absorbed; the real risk is oil staying elevated from here, which would pressure margins in exposed sectors, with smaller, leveraged firms feeling it first."

 

After hitting an over four-month high at around $110 a barrel, the November contract of Brent crude oil on the Intercontinental Exchange came off highs to $104 a barrel. However, in a week, the contract gained almost 8% amid the escalation in the war in West Asia.

 

Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra Friday said the central bank may conduct open market operations to sell government securities or dollar-rupee sell-buy swaps to drain surplus liquidity from robust foreign currency non-resident (banks) deposits.

 

"Nothing is off the table on liquidity management," the governor said. He also reiterated that the central bank's aim was to ensure adequate liquidity in the banking system to support the productive needs of the economy and keep the weighted average call rate aligned to the policy repo rate of 5.25%.

 

Some of the liquidity overhang will be drained through the increase in currency in circulation over the next few months while the rest will be managed through a combination of tools, Malhotra said. Bathini of WealthMills Securities also agreed with the RBI governor's comment on liquidity. He sees no concern about liquidity for the medium-to-short term. 

 

At the end of the continuous trading session on exchanges at 1515 IST, the Nifty 50 was at 23435.10 points, down 0.2% from Thursday. The BSE Sensex was at 74914.06 points, flat from the previous close. After the closing auction session, the Nifty 50 ended at 23398.10, down 79.70 points or 0.3%. The Sensex ended at 74781.76, down 120.83 points or 0.2% from Thursday.

 

"Going forward, the 23250–23230 zone could act as a crucial support area, coinciding with today's low," Sudeep Shah, head of technical and derivatives research at SBI Securities, said in a note. "Nifty (50) has recently seen a corrective phase mainly on concerns of rising crude oil prices," Ruchit Jain, head of technical research at Motilal Oswal, said. "The immediate support for Nifty is placed around 23000 and the RSI readings are oversold. So, a near-term pullback can be seen in coming days towards 23600-23800 range." Shah of SBI Securities expects the 23250–23230 zone to act as a crucial support area going forward, he said in the note.

 

A sustained breach below 23230 could accelerate selling pressure towards 23080 levels. On the upside, 23600–23620 is likely to act as an immediate hurdle. A sustained move above 23620 could extend the pullback towards 23800 levels.  End

 

US$1 = INR 95.55

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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