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Informist, Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026

 

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--ISMA Ballani: Cane area contraction moderate for 2026-27
--CONTEXT: ISMA Director General Ballani speaking at sugar conference 
--ISMA Ballani: Weak, uneven rainfall adding uncertainty to next year output 
--ISMA Ballani: Assessing cane crop, next yr sugar output cautiously 
--ISMA Ballani: Not releasing sugar output estimates as weather patchy 
--ISMA Ballani: Challenge not estimating cane area, but its sugar delivery 
--ISMA Ballani: Monsoon rains may look better than actual crop experience 
--ISMA Ballani: Timely rains important than better cumulative rains for cane 
--ISMA Ballani: If Sept-Oct rains good, some cane crop stress maybe resolved 
--ISMA Ballani: If Sept-Oct rains moderate, good irrigation may offer buffer 
--ISMA Ballani: See downside risk to cane yield on current monsoon conditions
--ISMA Ballani: Will release progressive 2026-27 sugar output estimate Oct

 

NEW DELHI – Sugar industry bodies are cautiously assessing the sugarcane crop set to be harvested from October, as erratic climate signals have made projecting the potential sugar output challenging, Deepak Ballani, director general of Indian Sugar & Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association, said Thursday. Although the decline in sugarcane acreage was moderate this year, uneven rainfall distribution and El Nino conditions have "created some downside risk for sugarcane yields and potential sugar recovery", he said.

 

"We are still in the process of assessing the crop. So, September rainfall and post-monsoon conditions will provide much better visibility. Therefore, the current position is a very cautious and progressive assessment rather than a fixed production estimate," Ballani said, stressing that the current assessments are preliminary and are subject to agroclimatic changes. "If we get good rainfall in September, followed by equally good October, some of the crop stress can be resolved," Ballani said. But if September remains patchy or below normal, the risk of yield loss and cane availability increases. "And if rainfall is only moderate, but irrigation support remains good, then that could also be partly buffered," he added. 

 

The monsoon rainfall so far has been progressing unevenly, mainly due to El Nino conditions. The monsoon rains have recovered from around 40?ficit in June to 15% currently, due to relatively improved rainfall activity in July and August. However, Ballani said cumulative rainfall does not reflect the actual growth conditions of the crop. 

 

"We saw (rainfall) weakness in June, some recovery in July, and then reduced stress and shortfall in August," Ballani said. "But the cumulative rainfall can sometimes look better than the actual crop experience. For the crop, what matters is when the rain came, how much came, and how much rain was actually on time, and whether there were dry spells between rainfall events," he added. 

The sugarcane crop is grown over 12–18 months and sown over different timelines across various states. "So the same rainfall event can have a very different impact depending on which crop is exposed to it and at what phase and what stage," Ballani said, adding that estimating cane acreage is relatively easier than yield and sugar output. 

 

According to agriculture ministry data, the all-India Kharif cane acreage as of Friday had declined by barely 1% to 5.85 million hectares from 5.86 million hectares a year ago. Meanwhile, ISMA estimates a 2% year-on-year decline in sugarcane at roughly 5.62 million hectares. However, Ballani said the decline is "moderate" and is concentrated in Maharashtra and Karnataka. Uttar Pradesh cane acreage is estimated "broadly stable", he added. "Our challenge is not so much knowing where the cane acreage is. It is actually knowing how much that cane will ultimately deliver (as sugar)," Ballani said. 

 

Citing the challenges while estimating sugarcane yield, particularly in an El Nino year, ISMA has delayed releasing its projection for 2026-27 (Oct-Sep) sugar output. In some previous years, ISMA had released its preliminary sugar production estimates as early as July. The caution over production estimates comes after sugar prices have recently surged to record highs ahead of the peak demand season. Conservative and premature production estimates may push prices higher as current supplies are seen as tight. ISMA will release its preliminary estimates for 2026-27 (Oct-Sept) next month. 

 

The current 2025-26 sugar season is estimated to close with only 3.5 million tonnes, significantly down from 5 million tonnes last year, and nearly 8 million tonnes in 2023-24. Amid tight closing stocks this year, sugar prices had rallied since July but rose more sharply in August amid speculation that stocks could tighten by October, prompting panic buying ahead of the festival season.

 

Ex-mill prices have risen to INR 6,000-6,400 per 100 kg in August from INR 4,600-4,800 in July. To keep prices in check, the government has imposed stock limits on sugar traders and bulk consumers, allowed mills to import raw sugar at nil duty, and granted export-oriented port-based refineries a one-time conversion to divert some of the refined sugar to domestic markets.

 

Though ex-mill prices have started easing, the government has stressed that prices must remain at affordable rates during the festival season, particularly in October and November. Festivals such as Ganesh Chaturthi and Krishna Janmashtami fall in September. Demand is expected to peak ahead of Navratri, Durga Puja, and Dussehra in October, followed by Diwali and Chhath Puja in November.

 

Every stakeholder, sugar mills, traders, bulk consumers, and other market participants, has to "act responsibly" and ensure sugar prices remain within an equilibrium, Ashwini Srivastava, joint secretary (sugar), said. He added that "sugar mills hold the primary responsibility" of keeping prices stable, as price changes start from factory gates.

 

Thursday, sugar prices in Uttar Pradesh markets were above INR 5,000 per 100 kg, while in Maharashtra they were around INR 4,800-INR 4,900. In Karnataka, prices were around INR 4,850-INR 4,950 and in Tamil Nadu, prices were INR 4,800-INR 5,030, according to traders.  End

 

Reported by Afra Abubacker

Edited by Shubhayan Bhattacharya

 

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