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Informist, Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026

 

NEW DELHI – India's glucagon-like peptide-1 market is likely to reach INR 157 billion by the financial year 2031-32 (Apr-Mar), driven by rising adoption and lower prices following the entry of generic semaglutide, Kotak Institutional Equities has said in a report. Out of the total GLP-1 market, the generic market will account for INR 99 billion by FY32.

 

As of July, around 275,000 patients in India use glucagon-like peptide-1 drugs, of which about 100,000 were on Eli Lilly's Mounjaro (tirzepatide), and 175,000 were on semaglutide, Kotak said. The patient base was expected to rise to around 6.6 million by FY32. The brokerage also estimated the obesity-only glucagon-like peptide-1 market to reach around INR 89 billion by FY32, supported by rising adoption of the drugs for weight loss. India has around 75 million obese adults, providing a large potential patient pool for these therapies, Kotak said.

 

GENERIC SEMAGLUTIDE

The brokerage said semaglutide generics are likely to drive the expansion of the Indian glucagon-like peptide-1 market after the expiry of Novo Nordisk's formulation and device patent on Mar. 20. As of now, 33 generic semaglutide brands are marketed by 16 companies, creating intense competition. Generic glucagon-like peptide-1 drugs accounted for around 14% of the overall market by value and 44% by volume in July, while generic semaglutide had captured around 62% of semaglutide volumes, Kotak said.

 

Kotak expects Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd., Lupin Ltd., Torrent Pharmaceuticals Ltd., Eris Lifesciences Ltd., Alkem Laboratories Ltd., Zydus Lifesciences Ltd., and Mankind Pharma Ltd. to eventually command a large share of the domestic glucagon-like peptide-1 market. However, it did not expect any single generic formulation company to benefit disproportionately because of intense competition in the segment.

 

PRICE REMAINS KEY

Affordability remains the biggest barrier to mass adoption, as per the report. Semaglutide generics currently cost around INR 2,000-INR 4,000 or more for a month, depending on the brand and format, while generic prices are generally at least 50?low innovator prices. "While we expect pricing to decline further over FY2027-29E (estimate) and thereby improving affordability, current prices of Semaglutide generics are still 5-8X (times) higher than prevailing monthly diabetes medications in India. This is likely to serve as a key barrier for mass GLP-1 adoption in the country," the report said.

 

TIRZEPATIDE

Mounjaro, Eli Lilly's tirzepatide brand, remains the strongest glucagon-like peptide-1 brand in India. It recorded around INR 1.84 billion in sales in July and remains the largest pharma brand in India by value in this segment, according to IQVIA data cited by Kotak. Kotak estimates FY29 sales of around INR 27.1 billion for Mounjaro and INR 5.3 billion for Cipla Ltd.'s Yurpeak, its second brand of Mounjaro.

 

The brokerage expected pens to remain the dominant dosage format, followed by oral drugs and vials, while increasing competition and lower active pharmaceutical ingredient prices are expected to put further pressure on pricing. Contract development and manufacturing organisations such as OneSource Specialty Pharma Ltd. and, to a lesser extent, Gland Pharma Ltd., along with device manufacturer Shaily Engineering Plastics Ltd., are also expected to see healthy earnings contributions from this opportunity, Kotak said.  End

 

Reported by Gunjan Rajput 

Edited by Shubhayan Bhattacharya

 

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