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Informist, Wednesday, Sept. 9, 2026

 

By Adhithya Aji

 

MUMBAI – Benchmark indices are expected to fall in the near term as rising crude oil prices seem to provide no space for bulls to breathe. Tuesday, crude oil prices touched $100 per barrel after six weeks as military hostilities in West Asia continued. However, some technical analysts expect headline indices to register some gains as they are in an oversold zone after losing nearly 3% so far this month.

 

At 1722 IST, the November futures of Brent crude oil were at $100.88 per barrel, up 3% from Tuesday. "For India, higher crude (oil prices) means costlier imports, a wider trade gap and a softer rupee, leaving the RBI little room to cut (interest rate) at its Oct. 7 review," Rajeev Sharan, head of research at Brickwork Ratings, said in a note.

 

The September quarter earnings of Indian corporates are expected to continue the momentum of the June quarter despite higher crude oil prices, helped by price hikes taken by the companies since the US-Iran war began. "Despite that (higher crude oil), the companies were able to hold on to their pricing structure, although some few companies have taken a hit, most of the pricing gains have been passed out," Narendra Solanki, head of fundamental research at Anand Rathi Investment Services, said while talking about the June quarter earnings. 

 

Analysts had earlier flagged that the primary market is gaining more traction with investors, which is already affecting volumes in the secondary market. This is primarily due to the slew of initial public offerings lined up this month. Solanki called the ongoing frenzy in initial public offerings "cyclical". "Whenever the markets are optimistic, the number of IPOs and the amount of fundraising increases and whenever the sentiments subside, the amount of fundraising and the IPOs decline," he said. In the long term, the new offers that are coming will provide more choices for investors as they unlock the types of sectors which are under-represented in the domestic market currently, according to Solanki. "This is a good thing to have in the medium to long term and would also give investors better options in terms of taking exposure of different sectors," Solanki said.

 

The Nifty IT and Nifty Bank, two key sectoral indices, have been underperforming recently. Over the last seven sessions, Nifty IT is down over 7% and Nifty Bank has declined nearly 2%. Wednesday, Nifty IT was down for the sixth consecutive session and ended over 3% lower. Nifty Bank was down for the fourth consecutive session and closed 0.9% lower.

 

Information technology stocks have underperformed but also provide an opportunity for investors looking at valuations. The IT sector companies' valuation multiples are around a 10-year average, which is very decent, according to Solanki. However, investors are still blind about the impact on revenues due to artificial intelligence. Further, private banks have been underperforming due to weak profitability owing to higher costs even as credit growth is strong.

 

The Nifty 50 closed lower for the third consecutive session Wednesday and ended at its lowest level in over two months at 23431.50 points, down nearly 0.9% from Tuesday. Analysts expect the 50-stock index to fall more due to high crude oil prices. "The overall market bias remains cautious to bearish, as both Nifty (50) and Bank Nifty are witnessing sustained selling pressure and weakening price structures," Hitesh Tailor, technical research analyst at Choice Broking, said in a note. However, some technical analysts still expect a recovery as the Nifty 50 is in the oversold zone. However, significant gains are only expected if the Nifty 50 crosses 23600. The support for the Nifty 50 is seen around 23300-23070, while the resistance is seen around 23600-23650, according to technical analysts.  End

 

US$1 = INR 95.10

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Shubhayan Bhattacharya

 

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