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Informist, Wednesday, Sept. 9, 2026

 

By Eshitva Prakash

 

MUMBAI – Traders' outlook for the market has turned more negative after crude oil prices crossed the psychologically crucial $100 per barrel mark for the first time since July, raising concerns about a wider current account deficit and high inflation. An intraday reduction in put writing at the near-the-money strike price of the Nifty 50 indicates weakening support for the headline index near spot levels, paving the way for a further fall. This, coupled with hefty call writing, makes it unlikely that the Nifty 50 will bounce back sharply from current levels.

 

Traders bought out-of-the-money put contracts, pushing premiums across 23200–23400 strike prices up 100–200%. Further out-of-the-money put contracts saw buying interest, with premiums across 22500-23000 strike prices rising significantly higher. The highest put base was at 23000 points, indicating support for the Nifty 50 at that level. Around midday, the highest put base was at 23500 points with over 14 million contracts. The number of contracts at the 23500 strike fell significantly from intraday highs as the headline index fell further and writers rotated their positions lower toward the 23000 strike price, signalling bearish sentiment.

 

On the other side of the options chain, traders continued to sell call contracts. Successively higher open contracts at 23700–23800 strike prices indicate stiff resistance for the Nifty 50 in case sentiment improves and the index rebounds. The highest call base at 24000 strike price indicates strong near-term resistance for the Nifty 50. A steep decline in open interest of put contracts at the 24000 strike price indicates that traders unwound long positions.

 

"The market action indicates sharp downside momentum unfolding in Nifty... the immediate support of 23600 has been broken down decisively, and Nifty closed lower. The overall chart pattern of Nifty remains bearish, and there is a possibility of more weakness in the near term," Nagaraj Shetti, senior technical research analyst at HDFC Securities, said in a note.

 

Other analysts also noted that market volatility strengthens arguments for further declines. The advance-decline ratio remains firmly skewed in favour of bears, highlighting underlying weakness, Osho Krishan, chief manager of technical and derivative research at Angel One, said. Amid the ongoing sell-off and persistent weakness in global markets, investors are advised to closely monitor evolving developments and refrain from taking aggressive positions, he said. 

 

However, not all analysts expect this bearish trend in the Nifty 50 to continue, which has already declined 2.7% so far in September, keeping the door open for a technical rebound. "Put sellers are building positions around the 23500 strike price, which makes it unlikely that the Nifty 50 will fall more," Rupak De, senior technical analyst at LKP Securities, said. The analyst expects a meaningful recovery in the headline index in the near term, but clarified that a sharp rebound is possible only if US consumer price index data shows lower-than-expected inflation or if the US central bank does not hike rates later this month. In the near term, the analyst expects the Nifty 50 to face resistance at 23575–23600 points. If the 50-stock index breaches this level, it will face strong resistance at 24000–24200 points, he said.

 

On Wednesday, the Nifty 50 ended 0.9% lower at 23431.50 points. Shares of information technology companies continued to fall as rising crude oil prices increased chances of the US Federal Reserve hiking benchmark lending rates later this month. Higher interest rates translate into lower discretionary spending among US-based firms, a key negative for domestic IT companies. Shares of companies in the financial services, banking, and crude-sensitive sectors also dragged on the headline index. Meanwhile, a rise in shares of Adani group companies, select energy players and metal companies helped prevent a steeper decline.     

 

At 1547 IST, the November futures contract of Brent Crude oil traded at $100.48 per barrel on the Intercontinental Exchange. The contract rose to an intraday high of $100.95 per barrel, its highest level in more than six weeks. Its value has risen more than 5% over the last four sessions. The US military's central command Tuesday said it destroyed 5 Iranian oil tankers in response to recent attempts to attack US warships with ballistic missiles. This invited retaliatory strikes from Iran, with Jordan Wednesday claiming its military intercepted 18 Iranian missiles, according to media reports.

 

--Nifty 50 September closed at 23530.00, down 219.60 points; 98.50-point premium to the spot index
--Nifty 50 October closed at 23629.00, down 221.60 points; 197.50-point premium to the spot index

--Nifty 50 November closed at 23730.00, down 221.60 points; 298.50-point premium to the spot index

HDFC Bank, Adani Enterprises, Coforge, One 97 Communications, Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, Infosys, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone, BSE, Vodafone Idea, and Tata Steel were the most actively traded underlying stocks Wednesday.  End

 

US$1 = INR 95.11

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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