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Informist, Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026

 

By Somen Bose

 

MUMBAI – Gold prices are likely to trade in a broad range with a positive bias in September. Safe-haven demand amid renewed escalation in the war in West Asia, continued buying by central banks, and seasonal physical demand is expected to support the yellow metal prices, while higher bond yields could cap gains. The US Federal Reserve's interest rate movements remain the key trigger for gold prices.

 

As per the median of estimates from nine broking firms polled by Informist, the most active October gold futures contract on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India is expected to be in the range of INR 148,000-INR 158,000 per 10 grams in September. On COMEX, gold is seen in the range of $4,280-$4,700 per ounce during the month. Friday, the October gold contract on the MCX closed at INR 152,815 per 10 grams, down 1.9%, while the most active December contract on COMEX ended at $4,477.2 per ounce, down 1.4%.

 

"The broader bias remains positive, although volatility around US rates, bond yields and the dollar can remain high," Karthick Jonagadla, smallcase manager and founder and CEO of Quantace Research said. Gold gained around 7% in August, its strongest monthly performance since January, before a sharp month-end correction. The bullish bias comes despite the sharp correction seen at the end of August, when gold came under pressure as expectations of higher US interest rates pushed Treasury yields higher, according to Motilal Oswal. Rate expectations may, therefore, remain a significant factor. Some analysts expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in the near term. 

 

"The cascading effect of the downside dollar is nullified by the higher bond yields," Manoj Kumar Jain, director and head of commodity and currency research at Prithvi Finmart, said. Higher crude oil prices could also add to inflation concerns and prompt hawkish comments from global central banks, keeping gold within a range, he said. 

 

At the same time, safe-haven demand is expected to provide a floor to prices as the war in West Asia renewed with direct military exchanges between the US and Iran in late August. "Safe-haven buying is already in place and is likely to remain intact," Jain said. Central bank buying is also expected to continue, providing additional support to gold, Jain said.

 

China bought 20 tonnes of gold in July, its largest monthly purchase since late 2023, extending its buying streak to 21 consecutive months, according to a World Gold Council report. Chinese gold ETF holdings also rose by 5 tonnes in July to 282 tonnes.

"Safe-haven demand is present, while central-bank buying is likely to remain firm because of de-dollarisation concerns," Ajay Kedia, founder and director, Kedia Advisory said.

 

Central-bank demand has also been highlighted by Motilal Oswal as a key support for gold. Investment demand outside central banks has also remained supportive, the brokerage said in a report. Global gold exchange-traded products have also registered good demand, while in India, gold ETF inflows remained resilient. Bar-and-coin buying, too, stayed firm despite easing from earlier peaks.

 

The US Treasury's bond-buying activity is another factor that could influence gold during the month. Ajay Kedia expects the US Treasury's bond-buying programme to continue, citing concerns over rising Japanese bond yields. The analyst also linked the programme to support for gold seen in the previous month. Motilal Oswal similarly highlighted the US Treasury's increased long-dated bond buybacks in August, saying the move created volatility across Treasuries, the dollar and gold. The brokerage also noted that the increased support for the Treasury market revived concerns over debt sustainability as US debt crossed $40 trillion.

 

Back home, physical demand, however, could face some pressure, analysts said. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's recent appeal to consumers to refrain from buying gold could affect demand, particularly investment demand. However, the impact on physical buying is expected to be limited because the festival season has already begun, and the marriage season is approaching soon, said Kedia. 

 

The rupee's appreciation against the US dollar is another factor that could limit gains in domestic prices of the dollar-denominated metal. However, the impact of a stronger rupee could be limited. "It could appreciate only slightly because crude oil prices remain above $90 a barrel, monsoon concerns persist and foreign investors' buying has not been substantial," Kedia added. 

 

Following are the estimates from 10 brokerages for gold prices in September, in alphabetical order of brokerage name:

Brokerage	COMEX support ($/oz)	COMEX resistance ($/oz)	MCX support (INR/10 gm)	MCX resistance (INR/10 gm)
IndusInd Securities	4,300	4,700	150,000	160,000
Kedia Advisory	4,140	4,700	141,000	160,000
Kotak Securities	4,250	4,700	148,000	156,000
LKP Securities	4,400	4,550	147,000	158,000
Motilal Oswal Financial Services	--	--	145,250	156,000
Nirmal Bang	4,260	4,600	146,800	157,800
Prithivi Finmart	4,220	4,585	148,000	157,000
Quantace Research	4,300	4,700	149,000	163,000
Ventura Securities	4,700	4,990	162,000	172,000
Median	4,280	4,700	148,000	158,000

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 94.48

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

 

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