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Informist, Friday, Sept. 4, 2026

By Adhithya Aji

MUMBAI – Benchmark indices are expected to see selling pressure in the near term as movement of crude oil, developments in war in West Asia, and bond yields are likely to keep the sentiment cautious. Investors now focus on the US job data which will be released later in the day. The outcome of the data will indicate the US Federal Reserve's policy outlook.

The primary market remains active with 11 mainboard initial public offers scheduled to open next week, and targets to raise around INR 70 billion, according to Siddhartha Khemka, head of research, wealth management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. "Several companies are also lined up for listing, keeping primary-market activity elevated despite the cautious secondary-market backdrop," Khemka said. Market participants lately were of the view that a larger amount of liquidity is flowing into the primary market than the secondary. In August, around 18 companies were listed, and so far in September, seven stocks have made their entry into the stock market. As a major development, the National Stock Exchange of India received the Securities and Exchange Board of India's approval for its initial public offering Friday.

Market participants will shift focus to the upcoming US employment data, which will provide some indicators to the US Federal Reserve's policy outlook. A little over 50% of investors now expect the US Fed to hike interest rates to 3.75-4.00%. On Thursday, the expectation of a rate hike was around 60%, according to CME FedWatch tool. US Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller said if upcoming data showed that inflation pressure was easing, he would be inclined to support keeping interest rates steady. This led to fall in US bond yields and sparked a positive sentiment around global equity markets. "Consensus expectations of a marginal decline in core inflation for August could strengthen expectations of a pause in Fed rate hikes and help contain bond yield volatility," Vinod Nair, head of research at Geojit Investments, said in a note.

Elevated crude oil prices continued to weigh down on investor sentiment. The November futures of Brent crude oil were over $95 per barrel. This is over 30% higher than the pre-war levels. The current level of energy prices creates a negative sentiment for India, which is a net importer of oil. Analysts had pegged the comfortable levels of crude oil for domestic equity markets around $75 per barrel–$80 per barrel. 

Most of the technical analysts were of the view that the Nifty 50 is likely to be weak in the near term. "The short-term trend is likely to remain weak as the index continues to trade below the 50-EMA on the hourly chart," Rupak De, senior technical research at LKP Securities, said in a note. De said a "sell-on-rise" sentiment is likely to persist in the Nifty 50 as long as it trades below the 24000-24200 zone. The support for the Nifty 50 is seen around 23800-23830 level, while the support is around 24000-24200, according to technical analysts. On Friday, the Nifty 50 ended 0.1% higher at 23897.70 points.  End

US$1 = INR 94.49

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

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