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Informist, Tuesday, Sept. 1, 2026

By Adhithya Aji

MUMBAI – Benchmark indices are expected to move in a range Tuesday as continued war between the US and Iran sent crude oil prices higher. The war remained a major overhang on the equity markets with no sign of a halt anytime soon. Globally, most Asian markets opened lower Tuesday and the Wall Street indices closed lower Monday. GIFT Nifty trend indicates a subdued opening for the Nifty 50. 

US President Donald Trump told Fox News that any strike on US forces will lead to further escalation. This indicates the unending tensions in the region for the sixth month. The stress in West Asia led to supply worries for crude oil, pushing it above $91 per barrel. The crude oil prices are nearly 25% higher than pre-war levels.

Monday, after market hours, India's GDP figures were released. The GDP growth for the June quarter stood at 7.8%, according to the government data. This was higher than expectations of 7.2%, according to an Informist Poll. "The outperformance was broad-based, led by fixed investments, private consumption and higher net exports, reflecting the role of government policies in shielding the economy," Nomura said in a report. The brokerage now expects the Reserve Bank of India to revise its GDP estimate for financial year 2026-27 (Apr-Mar) from its current 6.7% growth in the October monetary policy meeting. The GDP numbers are expected to support the MPC's confidence. "Our base case is for the RBI to remain on hold through 2026, but we acknowledge hawkish risks," Nomura added.

An interest rate hike is unlikely as it requires a structural change, and the RBI is waiting for the impact of war to go away. "Everybody is waiting for the war to go away, oil comes down and then inflation will not be so strong and then we don't have to raise rates," said a head of research who prefers to remain unnamed. The analyst is of the view that no other nation would hike the interest rates as well. "Everybody is just talking. Nobody is raising rates. US is not raising rates since one year since they have been citing strong data," the analyst said.

On the global front, most of the Asian markets opened lower. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was the worst hit in the region, down 0.8%. The rise in crude oil dampened the sentiment in the region as Asian countries are major net importers of oil. Monday, US indices ended lower, weighed down by renewed tensions in West Asia.  

At 0741 IST, the September futures of GIFT Nifty were 0.1% higher at 24197. This indicates a subdued start for the 50-stock index. The index remained rangebound for 11 consecutive sessions. "Going forward, sustained trading below 23980 spot could drag it toward 23900 spot levels, followed by 23750," Vipin Kumar, senior technical and derivatives analyst at Globe Capital Market, said. On the other hand, a sustained rise above 24200 could take the Nifty 50 to 24380, according to Kumar.      

On the stocks front, shares of the Nifty 50 constituent Sun Pharmaceutical Industries are expected to be in focus. The pharmaceutical company signed a pact with the US government to extend "Most Favored Nation" pricing. The company will extend "Most Favored Nation" to the country's Medicaid programmes. "Sun Pharma also commits to MFN pricing for future innovative medicine launches," the company said in a press release.  End

US$1 = INR 95.16

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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