Sept Forecast
IMD says El Nino conditions to strengthen, September rainfall to stay below normal
This story was originally published at 22:45 IST on 31 August 2026
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Monday, Aug. 31, 2026
Please click here to read all liners published on this story
--IMD: See India Sept rainfall below normal or 91% of long-period average
--IMD: Sept maximum temperature seen above-normal over most parts of India
--IMD: See Sept rains normal, above-normal in some east, east central parts
--IMD: See Sept rains normal, above-normal in some northwest, northeast parts
--IMD: Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole prevailing at present
--IMD: El Nino conditions to strengthen in remaining part of 2026 monsoon
--IMD: Few models see neutral Indian Ocean Dipole transition to positive Sept
--IMD: India southwest monsoon rains nearly 14% below normal during Jun-Aug
--IMD: India Aug rainfall 16.3% below normal, south India 27% below normal
--IMD: Moderate to strong El Nino conditions prevailed Aug, impacting rains
--IMD: All four regions received below-normal rains in August
--IMD: Aug rainfall in east, northeast 16.9% below normal at 276 mm
--IMD: Aug rainfall in south peninsula 27.1% below normal at 139.1 mm
--IMD: Aug rainfall in central India 16.2% below normal at 258.8 mm
--IMD: Aug rainfall in northwest India 9.5% below normal at 178.4 mm
--IMD: Aug avg max temperatures 31.6 degrees Celsius, 4th highest since 1901
MUMBAI/NEW DELHI – The India Meteorological Department expects the prevailing El Nino conditions to strengthen in the remaining days of this year's southwest monsoon season, with rainfall in September expected to be below normal at 91% or less of the long-period average. Maximum temperatures are likely to be above-normal over most parts of the country next month, the weather bureau said Monday in a virtual press conference.
Though most parts of the country are projected to receive below-normal rains, some areas of northwest, northeast, east, east-central, and southeast peninsular India are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall. India received 16.3% below-normal rainfall in August at 213.3 millimetres, with the southern region of the country getting 27% below-normal rains at 139.1 millimetres. All other regions also received below-normal rains this month.
East and northeast India received 16.9% below-normal rainfall in August at 276 millimetres and central India got 16.2% below-normal showers at 258.8 millimetres. Northwest India received 9.5% below-normal rainfall at 178.4 millimetres this month. In Jun-Aug, the country as a whole received 13.8% below-normal showers at 603.7 millimetres.
Some regions in Punjab, eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, southern West Bengal, Sikkim, west Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, and Meghalaya have continued to get deficient rainfall since June. South India received good rainfall in June but it was scanty in July and continued to be so this month as well. Moderate to strong El Nino conditions prevailed over the equatorial Pacific in August, impacting rainfall during the month. Four low-pressure systems formed in August, of which two intensified into the depression category. Although the four systems developed and collectively persisted for 26 days, rains were largely confined to the Indo-Gangetic plains, the bureau said.
The Indian Ocean Dipole is neutral currently, but some international models suggest a positive dipole could develop in September, according to the department. The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole could abate the impact of an El Nino event. However, the impact of an El Nino event is typically more powerful than that of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole.
Maximum temperatures are likely to increase further, peaking around Oct-Nov and decreasing thereafter. The average minimum temperatures are also expected to be above-normal over most of the country in September. Some parts of northwest, west-central, and northeast India are likely to see normal to below normal minimum temperatures next month. The average maximum temperature over India was at 31.66 degrees Celsius in India, fourth highest since 1901, the bureau said. End
Reported by Ashutosh Pati and Afra Abubacker
Edited by Rajeev Pai
For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.
Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.
Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000 /+91 (11) 4220-1000
Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com
© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.
To read more please subscribe
Share this Story:
