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Informist, Monday, Aug. 31, 2026

 

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--[I] MoSPI official: PPI inclusion affected nominal, real GDP estimates 
--[I] CONTEXT: MoSPI Additional DG Kundu at press meet on Q1 GDP data release 
--[I] MoSPI official: Consistent growth in manufacturing, services helped Q1 GDP 
--[I] CEA: Despite war in West Asia, manufacturing has done well 
--[I] CONTEXT: CEA Nageswaran's comments at press meet on release of Q1 GDP data 
--[I] CEA: Oil price impact due to West Asia conflict has remained muted 
--[I] CEA: Petroleum prices could pose risk to global demand 
--[I] CEA: Sowing activity only marginally lower this year compared to last year 
--[I] CEA: Inflation well-behaved so far 
--[I] CEA: Govt keeping eye on long-term energy security, resilience 
--[I] CEA: Need to keep diversification efforts going 
--[I] CEA: Need to monitor food prices, monsoon progression, global uncertainty 
--[I] CEA: Multiple FTAs to be operational by December-end

 

NEW DELHI – Prices of petroleum products could pose a risk to global demand and affect India's export growth, V. Anantha Nageswaran, chief economic adviser to the government, said Monday. "We need to keep our diversification efforts going on and also ensure cross-competitiveness," he said at a press conference after the release of Apr-Jun GDP data.

 

India's real GDP grew 7.8% in the first quarter of the financial year 2026-27 (Apr-Mar), up from 6.9% a year earlier, surpassing the Reserve Bank of India's estimate of 7%, according to data released by the government.

 

Nageswaran said the oil price impact of the war in West Asia has been less severe than expected partly because of lower demand by China and release of strategic petroleum reserves by the US and other countries. "There is always a lurking risk of crude oil supply disruption which is there. Which will probably prevent the oil prices from coming down materially and sustainably below $80 per barrel in terms of the Brent crude," he said.

 

India faced higher price pressures after the war in West Asia began at the end of February. Global crude oil prices surged to as much as $123 a barrel after the war started from sub-$73 a barrel before Feb. 28.

 

In Apr-Jun, agriculture sector growth moderated to 3.6% on quarter as well as on year. "All the three sectors contributed, agriculture slightly less so. But we have manufacturing and services doing quite well during the first quarter despite the West Asia-related uncertainty," Nageswaran said. Buoyed by the growth in the manufacturing sector, the overall industry growth rose to 7.7% from 6.6% a year ago, government data showed.

 

"The real GDP estimates have registered a growth of 7.8% and it is mainly driven by the consistent growth in the manufacturing and service sector. Nominal GDP has grown by 10.3% in Apr-Jun of this financial year," Siddhartha Kundu, Additional Director General in the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, said. Inclusion of Producer Price Index has affected both the nominal estimate as well as the real estimate, he added. The statistics department also made revisions to previous years' data, with GDP growth in FY24, FY25, and FY26 raised by 10 bps each to 7.3%, 7.2%, and 7.8, respectively. These revisions were caused due to the use of the new output Producer Price Index, the new Index of Industrial Production data series, and the Banking Services Price Index released earlier this year.

 

Nageswaran said manufacturing exports are rising and growing briskly in a globally uncertain environment indicating the beneficial effects of the free trade agreements signed recently. Export diversification efforts and rising competitiveness of Indian manufacturing sector are also supporting exports, he said.

 

"Indian manufacturing goods exports have done very well in dollar terms in the course of the current financial year, which augurs very well for the manufacturing sector, external sector stability," he added. India is currently negotiating bilateral investment agreements and free trade agreements with several countries. "The European Union free trade agreement should be operational by the end of the calendar year," he said. "While domestic demand and investment remain the anchors, food prices, monsoon progression, and global uncertainty deserve monitoring," he said, adding that the government is keeping an eye on long-term energy security and resilience. 

 

On the domestic front, Nageswaran said inflation has been well-behaved so far. "Despite pockets of wholesale price index increase going on, we have inflation that is well-behaved and the central bank is obviously watching for signs of second round effects before they decide to act on the monetary policy front," he said. Highlighting that many parts of the country have received adequate rainfall this year, Nageswaran said "sowing activity is only marginally lower in this current season compared to last year across various crops and cereals".  End

 

US$1 = INR 95.16

 

Reported by Sagar Sen and Radhika Tiwari 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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