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Informist, Friday, Aug. 28, 2026

 

By Adhithya Aji

 

MUMBAI – Benchmark indices are expected to move in a range next week as investors seek clarity over the movement of crude oil prices and will focus on the US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole Symposium Friday. US President Donald Trump recently indicated that he has no will to strike a ceasefire deal with Iran, which pushed crude oil prices higher. 

 

"Crude prices have not fallen enough and there is no clarity at all about the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Now again, crude prices have firmed up. The market needs clarity on the crude prices," said Dr. VK Vijaykumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Investments. The October futures of Brent crude were near $90 per barrel. The energy price is over 23% higher than the pre-war levels.

 

Foreign institutional investors bought Indian equities in small quantities as they sold in chip stocks dominated markets such as South Korea and Taiwan. "The concentration risks associated with the three stocks - Samsung, SK Hynix, and TSMC- are high," Vijaykumar said. He said that overseas investors have turned buyers in India recently, but they are buying in small quantities. "A major negative for EM (emerging market) equities is the high bond yields in the US," the analyst added.

 

Another pointer for the domestic market is the earnings growth in coming quarters, which analysts believe will set the tone for indices. For the June quarter, Indian corporations delivered better-than-expected earnings growth despite West war-led worries and higher crude oil prices. However, the factors that supported the June quarter earnings growth may not sustain in the second half of 2026-27 (Apr-Jun), according to Nomura. The brokerage highlighted that firms only partially passed on the higher input costs to consumers, while a delayed pass through cannot be ruled out. This is likely to keep the profit margins under pressure, Nomura said in a report. "The coming quarters will capture the impact of deficient rains and lagging Kharif (summer) crop sowing," Nomura said. This will increase the possibility for lower agricultural gross value added growth, and also lead to moderation in growth of consumption, the brokerage added.

 

"The technical setup continues to reflect hesitation and uncertainty in the directional trend, with the benchmark index oscillating between strong structural support near the 24050 zone," Osho Kishan, chief manager, technical and derivatives research at Angel One said in a note. The support for the Nifty 50 is estimated around 23900-24000 points, while the resistance is seen around 24200-24350 points, according to technical analysts. Friday, the Nifty 50 closed 0.4% higher at 24175.65 points while the Sensex closed 0.4% higher at 77264.51 points. 

 

Investors now focus on US Fed's Warsh's speech, which will provide them clarity on the interest rate outlook, global liquidity conditions, and inflation. The Fed chair is unlikely to indicate a rate action, he is more likely to speak on the macroeconomic trend, Dr. VK Vijaykumar said. "If he indicates rate hikes to control inflation, that will be a negative for the market," the analyst added.

 

India will release its June quarter GDP figures Monday. The country's GDP growth in Apr-Jun is likely to be slowed down to one-year low of 7.2%, according to an Informist Poll.  End

 

US$1 = INR 95.38

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

 

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