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Informist, Friday, Aug. 28, 2026

 

MUMBAI – The impact of price hikes automobile makers undertook seems to have been well absorbed in August and demand for cars was likely robust, brokerage Nomura Equity Research said. While retail demand likely fell on an on-month basis, channel filling is expected to have supported wholesale sales across vehicle categories, the brokerage said in a report. 

 

For the passenger vehicle industry, Nomura expects wholesale sales in August to rise 41% on year to around 461,000 units and retail sales to increase 4% to 356,000 units. Though the pass-through of high input costs was the least in this sector, demand appears to be resilient, the brokerage said. However, margin pressure is likely to continue for longer for car manufacturers. 

 

Domestic wholesale volumes of the country's largest passenger car seller Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. are seen increasing 41% on year but declining 6% on month to 185,000 units in August. Nomura expects the company's recently-introduced Brezza Facelift with a turbo-petrol engine to drive 4,000–5,000 units of monthly incremental volumes for the model. The company's exports are seen rising 23% on year to 45,000 units.

 

Tata Motors Passenger Vehicle Ltd. is expected to post a nearly 62% on-year jump in wholesale sale volumes to 70,000 units while its domestic sales are pegged to rise 68% to around 69,000 units. "... The recently launched Sierra EV's waiting period has come down in August and there also appears to be higher interest in the Harrier EV from potential customers of the Sierra EV," Nomura said.

 

Meanwhile, domestic wholesale sales of Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.'s utility vehicles are seen rising 60% on year to 63,000 units in August. Demand for the company's XEV 9S and XUV 7XO models is strong, the brokerage said.

 

For Hyundai Motor India Ltd., overall sales are expected to rise 16% on year but fall 7% on month to 70,000 units. Domestic sales of the Creta seller are seen increasing around 18% on year to 52,000 units. The company's market share in India is likely to reach 12% in August from 11.6% in July, as per the Nomura report. 

 

TWO-WHEELERS

While wholesales in the two-wheeler industry are seen rising 11% year-on-year to 2.06 million units, retail sales are pegged to climb 16% to 1.66 million units, Nomura said. Sales of India's largest motorcycle manufacturer, Hero MotoCorp Ltd., are estimated to increase nearly 7% on year to 590,000 units.

 

The total wholesale sales volumes of Bajaj Auto Ltd. are expected to rise 17% to 488,000 units. While the company's two-wheeler exports are estimated to go up 41.3% on year and remain flat on month at 223,000 units. Its domestic wholesale volumes are seen falling over 2% on year but rising almost 9% on a monthly basis to 180,000 units, according to Nomura.

 

As for Eicher Motors Ltd., wholesale sales of its Royal Enfield motorcycles are expected to increase 10% on year to 125,000 units. By a month-on-month comparison, sales are likely to go up 6%. 

 

 

In August, wholesale sales of electric two-wheelers are seen rising 57% on year to around 172,400 units. The key players in this space are TVS Motor Co. Ltd., Bajaj Auto, Ather Energy Ltd., and Hero MotoCorp. The waiting period for Ather models is of two to three months and the same for the TVS iQube is of around a month. 

 

COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

Nomura expects wholesale volumes across medium and heavy commercial vehicles to rise 25% on year to 34,300 units and retail sales to increase 11% to 33,100 units. The total wholesale volumes for Ashok Leyland Ltd. in this category are estimated to increase over 36% on year but only around 4% on month to 12,800 units. Meanwhile, Tata Motors Ltd. is expected to post an 18% year-on-year rise in sales to 17,300 units for August.  

 

For tractors, Nomura expects M&M's wholesales volumes to grow 6% on year in August to 29,800 units. On a monthly basis, sales are estimated to decline over 13% from 34,400 units. 

 

Going forward, industry growth across segments is likely to moderate to a low-single-digit in the second half of 2026-27 (Apr-Mar) due to a high base, Nomura said. The brokerage prefers companies with potential to grow faster in the second half of this fiscal year. "However, there is some risk to demand in the entry- and mass-segments from vehicle price hikes, rising inflation and weaker rainfall," according to the brokerage.

 

From the automobile companies under its covergae in the auto sector, Nomura prefers M&M, Hyundai Motor India, Ather, TVS Motor, and Sona BLW Precision Forgings Ltd. The brokerage has a "buy" recommendation on all these stocks.  End

 

Reported by Ruchira Kagita

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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