India Stocks Outlook
Seen in range on elevated oil price; Federal Chair view eyed
This story was originally published at 18:55 IST on 27 August 2026
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Thursday, Aug. 27, 2026
By Adhithya Aji
MUMBAI – Benchmark indices are expected to move in range as traders are paying closer attention to US Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium about inflation outlook than they are to a fall in crude oil prices, analysts said. His comments are expected to give further clarity on inflation, interest rate hikes, and policy outlook. While crude oil prices have declined in the past four sessions, they are still elevated for a net importer such as India.
The current crude oil prices are still very high for India, according to Pravin Bokade, head of research at IDBI Capital Markets & Securities. "India imports around 88-90% of the crude requirement. So, unless and until the crude falls below 70 ($70 per barrel) or 80 ($80 per barrel) or around 75 ($75 per barrel), I don't think there will be any movement in the market," Bokade said. He added that another positive trigger for markets will be the active participation of foreign institutional investors.
Bokade said foreign investors will continue to prefer artificial intelligence-dominated markets to the domestic ones, and the trend will continue. "Even the overall earnings growth in the S&P 500 is around 27% to 20%, which is almost three times of the earnings growth in India," he said. So far in 2026, foreign participants have pulled out over INR 2.24 trillion from the Indian equity markets, according to data from NSDL. High US yield on the longer-dated securities is also deterring participation from overseas investors, analysts said.
On the macro front, Bokade said "...overall, the inflation everywhere is sticky" with the South Korean central bank hiking interest rates and the Japan central banks might also do the same. Bank of Korea raised its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3%. The central bank's move comes amid AI-led inflation, Financial Times reported. The investors now focus on US Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh's speech Friday. "Investors will also closely watch the (US) Fed chair's upcoming Jackson Hole address for signals on inflation, interest rates, and the policy outlook, which could influence global risk sentiment and capital flows into emerging markets," Vindo Nair, head of research at Geojit Investments, said in a note.
"To increase rates in USA, it won't be easy. Because the cost of borrowing increases, and then that will impact their borrowing cost for the debt as well," Bokade said, adding that the US fiscal deficit is almost 6.7% due to a record-high debt of $40 trillion. "So, I doubt, despite having high inflation, US Fed will increase rates," he opined. Back home, the analyst expects the Reserve Bank of India to change its stance from 'neutral' to probably slightly hawkish. "I don't expect RBI to increase the rate immediately. But the change in the stance itself will keep the market under pressure," he said.
Technically, the Nifty 50 is seen in a range on Friday. "Overall index is expected to extend the recent consolidation and trade in the broad range of 23,800-24,600 in the coming session", Bajaj Broking Commentary said in a note. The support for the Nifty 50 is seen at 23900-24000 points, while the resistance is pegged around 24200-24230 points, according to technical analysts. On Thursday, the Nifty 50 ended 0.5% lower than Wednesday at 24090.85 points. End
US$1 = INR 95.54
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj
For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.
Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.
Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000
Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com
© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.
To read more please subscribe
Share this Story:
