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Informist, Wednesday, Aug. 26, 2026

 

By Adhithya Aji

 

MUMBAI – The benchmark indices are expected to be range-bound Thursday with investors focusing on comments from US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium the next day. Going forward, pointers towards inflation and crude oil price movement are likely to determine investor sentiment. Crude oil prices are expected to remain an overhang for the market until they fall below $85 per barrel.

 

Crude oil prices fell for the third consecutive session Wednesday after Iran said it has resumed talks with Oman to manage the Strait of Hormuz following the US imposition of stronger economic sanctions on Tehran. This sparked renewed hope that the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz may be reopened, pulling oil prices lower. At 1701 IST, the August futures contract of Brent crude oil was down nearly 3% from Tuesday at $86.05 per barrel. "I think crude price won't go much higher. But I don't think it will fall sharply because of some supply constraints. So there is some kind of relief on that front," Santosh Meena, head of research at Swastika Investmart, said. The analyst expects a fall in crude oil price below $85 per barrel to be a "big positive" for the Indian market. 

 

The September quarter earnings are expected to see some headwinds due to higher crude oil and commodity prices. "Last quarter was surprisingly positive for most of the markets... especially in mid-cap and small-cap markets," he said. The upcoming quarter is expected to be challenging because "the real impact" of higher energy prices can be seen then, "...and therefore it will be interesting to see how the margins of the companies will play out".

 

Foreign investors are likely to opt for Indian equity markets once the artificial intelligence trade cools and some companies show resilience in earnings recovery. The analyst said there is uncertainty in the global markets as well. "They are waiting for either clarity or any panic in the Indian equity market to come in," he said. Meena said earnings recovery for Indian corporations is unlikely as he expects the next quarter or two to be challenging because of higher commodity prices.

 

Technical analysts expect the Nifty 50 to see range-bound movement. The index struggles to breach the 20-day double exponential moving average and a sustained breakout above this key level would be essential to trigger the next leg of momentum, according to Osho Krishan, chief manager of technical and derivative research at Angel One. "Until then, the index is likely to witness some choppiness and consolidation," Krishan said in a note. Analysts peg support for the index at 24200-24130 points and see resistance at 24300–24500 points. Wednesday, the Nifty 50 ended 0.5% lower at 24207.75 points.

       

Inflation expectations in India remain well anchored for now, according to JM Financial Institutional Equities. "In our assessment, CPI inflation is unlikely to breach 6% on a sustained basis, reducing the need for the RBI to tighten monetary policy," the brokerage said in a report. JM Financial said it does not factor in any rate hikes in 2026.

 

Investors are focusing on the upcoming comments of US Federal Reserve officials which will give better clarity on inflation and the interest rate outlook. The Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming begins Thursday and ends Saturday. "The Fed is unlikely to tighten policy in response to an exogeneous supply shock at least till Dec '26," according to JM Financial. The brokerage added that the rupee remains under pressure from higher crude oil prices despite strong capital inflows and healthy reserves.  End

 

US$1 = INR 95.41

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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