Informist Poll
India's Q1 GDP growth likely to ease to one-year low of 7.2%
This story was originally published at 14:37 IST on 20 August 2026
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By Shweta
NEW DELHI – India's GDP growth is likely to have slowed to a one-year low in Apr-Jun amid supply chain disruption and higher commodity prices stemming from the war in West Asia, according to an Informist Poll. Despite the slowdown, growth during the quarter is still seen resilient.
According to the median of a poll of 14 economists, Indian economic growth is expected to moderate to 7.2% in the first quarter of 2026-27 (Apr-Mar) from 7.8% a quarter ago, but higher than 6.8% a year earlier. GDP growth estimates in the poll ranged from 6.7% to 8.0%.
"Listed companies' results reflected that profit growth has held up despite a jump in raw material costs. The strong pickup in sales growth has supported profit growth," Guara Sen Gupta, chief economist at IDFC FIRST Bank, said.
"Manufacturing GVA growth is expected to see a moderate slowdown. Services growth remains strong with the consumer largely protected from surge in energy cost," Sen Gupta, who expects GDP growth to slow to 7.4% in Apr-Jun, said.
Even as GDP growth is expected to soften in the June quarter, the 7.2% estimate is marginally higher than the Reserve Bank of India's projection of 7.0%. The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation will release the GDP data for Apr-Jun at 1600 IST on Aug. 31.
"High-frequency indicators across the industrial and services sectors have revealed a healthy picture of domestic volume growth in Q1 (Apr-Jun) 2026-27, belying the concerns of a fallout of higher commodity prices in the quarter on account of the West Asia conflict," Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA, said in a report. ICRA has projected the Apr-Jun quarter GDP growth at 7.0%.
Growth in India's factory output, as measured by the Index of Industrial Production, averaged 5.7% in the Apr-Jun quarter, up from 3.8% in the March quarter and 3.5% a year ago. Services output, based on the recently launched Index of Services Production, grew strongly in the first two months of the quarter, with 14 of the 16 sectors recording a double-digit growth in April and eight in May.
However, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index averaged 54.6 in Apr-Jun, down from 55.4 in Jan-Mar and 58.1 a year ago. The services PMI averaged 58.7 in Apr-Jun, up from 58.0 in Jan-Mar but down from 59.3 a year ago.
"Obviously, the discussion that the Indian economy is resilient seems to be showing up in the data," statistics ministry secretary Saurabh Garg had told Informist in an interview. "Those components (high frequency indicators) seem to indicate that the economy is doing well. And the RBI projections are in a way translating that feeling into numbers," Garg had said.
Gross value added growth in the June quarter is seen at 7.2%, according to the poll. At 7.2%, growth will be slower than the 7.9% recorded in the March quarter but marginally higher than the 7.1% recorded a year ago.
For the full year, the poll estimates GDP growth at 6.6%, marginally lower than the RBI's forecast of 6.7%. Projected GDP growth in FY27 is sharply lower than the 7.7% recorded in FY26.
The following table details the GDP growth estimates of economists:
| ORGANISATION |
Q1 GDP ESTIMATES |
Q1 GVA ESTIMATES |
FY27 GDP ESTIMATES |
|
State Bank of India |
8% |
-- | -- |
|
Pantheon Macroeconomics |
7.8% |
-- |
6.0% |
|
HDFC Bank |
7.5% |
7.4% |
6.8-7.0% |
|
IDFC FIRST Bank |
7.4% |
-- | |
|
BMI |
7.3-7.4% |
-- |
6.6% |
|
CareEdge Ratings |
7.3% |
7.4% |
7% |
|
ICICI Bank |
7.2% |
7.5% |
6.9% |
|
Motilal Oswal |
7.2% |
-- |
6.8-7.0% |
|
QuantEco Research |
7.2% |
7.0% |
6.4% |
|
YES Bank |
7.1% |
7.1% |
6.7% |
|
Sunidhi Securities |
7.1% |
7.2% |
6.5% |
|
ICRA |
7.0% |
7.2% |
-- |
|
India Ratings and Research |
6.9% |
-- |
6.8% |
|
Kotak Mahindra Bank |
6.7% |
-- |
6.6% |
End
Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury
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