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Informist, Thursday, Aug. 20, 2026

 

MUMBAI – The ongoing El Nino event, which has strengthened into a "strong" category, is expected to last till February, the APEC Climate Center said in its monthly forecast for Sept-Feb. Rainfall in India is expected to be below normal during Sept-Nov, while there are chances for above normal rainfall over parts of central India during Dec-Feb, the climate centre said.

 

The climate centre's El Nino-Southern Oscillation outlook is in the 'El Nino' alert, which is issued when such an event is nearly developed and is expected to persist in the next three months. El Nino is probable with a 100% chance during the entire forecast period, the agency said. Positive sea surface temperature anomalies are expected along the equator from September to February, which is a clear indication of El Nino conditions. 

 

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation index is expected to be 3.24 degrees Celsius in September, before peaking at 3.85 degrees Celsius in November and decreasing to a minimum of 2.95 degrees Celsius in February. For El Nino to emerge, temperatures should be at or above 0.5 degrees Celsius in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean. This threshold must persist for at least five consecutive, overlapping three-month periods, and must be accompanied by corresponding changes in tropical atmospheric circulation.

 

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is the oscillation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino-Southern Oscillation-neutral conditions generally mean near average rainfall conditions for India, with the monsoon performing close to its historical average. La Nina is usually associated with good rainfall over India, while El Nino is associated with a drier climate and drought conditions.

 

The climate centre sees an "enhanced" probability of below-normal rainfall over India from September to November, while a "tendency" for above-normal precipitation is likely over central parts of the country during Dec-Feb. In Sept-Nov, there is a "strongly enhanced" probability of above-normal temperatures over the Indian subcontinent and Indian Ocean, the climate centre said. Temperatures are likely to remain above normal during Dec-Feb, it said. 

 

Above-normal temperatures are mostly probable for most of the globe except for some parts of the south Pacific and South America during the entire forecast period.

 

The climate centre's precipitation forecasts suggest below-normal rainfall over most parts of India during the southwest monsoon and most of the northeast monsoon season. Chances of above-normal showers increase during the first two months of 2027.

 

For the remaining two months of the southwest monsoon season that runs from June through September, India is forecast to continue receiving below-normal rainfall as El Nino conditions are expected to persist through August and September, the India Meteorological Department said. The Indian weather department expects El Nino conditions to remain moderate during August but strengthen towards September as the Indian Ocean Dipole is forecast to transition from neutral to positive during September.  End

 

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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