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Informist, Wednesday, Aug. 19, 2026

MUMBAI - Following are the highlights of the minutes of the Aug. 3-5 meeting of the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee, released by the central bank Wednesday:

SANJAY MALHOTRA

* Economy performed better than expected in Q1
* India economy expected to remain resilient going ahead
* 6.7% growth projected for FY27 is robust, given headwinds
* Inflation inching up
* Growth-inflation dynamics similar to last policy meeting
* Need policy action for supply shock when CPI generalises
* Need policy action for supply shock when inflation persistent
* Inflation expectations, while slightly higher, are contained
* Inflation expected to taper from its peak in Q3

* Present supply shock doesn't call for policy action for now
* See signs of CPI normalisation from benign levels seen so far
* Want more clarity on CPI path before taking policy action
* Watchful of higher food, fuel prices leading broader CPI rise
* Any proof of broad-based high CPI may need policy tightening
* Any proof of de-anchoring CPI view may need policy tightening
 

POONAM GUPTA

* Global uncertainties flared in Jul after abating slightly Jun
* Outlook on prices, availability of oil, energy pdts has improved
* Quantum, distribution of rainfall improved in recent weeks
* High-freqency data shows resilience, supporting growth momentum
* Aug GDP, CPI forecasts assume average crude oil price at $90/bbl
* Scope for further easing does not seem to exist currently
* Case for a hike may emerge during course of yr on high Q3 CPI
* Best course of action to wait and watch amid uncertainty
* Awaiting weather-related uncertainties to settle
* Paused to gauge how far supply side inflation gets entrenched
* Paused to get more clarity on the global front

* Neutral stance to signal future policy steps data dependent
 

INDRANIL BHATTACHARYYA

* Econ dealt with geopolitics, trade, monsoon uncertainties Q1
* Oil prices stay vulnerable to sudden escalation of W Asia war
* CPI clearly on upward path, averaging 5.6% over next 9 mos
* Supply-side shocks threaten second-round impact across econ
* Erratic monsoon, evolving El Nino pose direct threat to agri
* Geopolitical shocks fueling sharp volatility in oil prices
* Geopolitics-led oil price movement blurring near-term view
* Volatile oil prices, El Nino can lead to food, fuel shocks
* Food price rise moderate so far despite high moonsoon risks
* See more clarity on monsoon, food, fuel inflation coming mos
* Limited pass-through so far of spikes in food, fuel inflation
* Inflation yet to get broad-based
* Must look for  CPI generalisation extent before any rate hike
 

NAGESH KUMAR

* Econ showed remarkable resilience in face of headwinds
* Trends and indicators suggest pickup in invest activity Q1
* Trends and indicators suggest pickup in investment activity Q1
* Services, manufactured exports grew robustly Q1
* Jun core CPI indicated supply-side nature of inflation
* Jun core CPI indicated no evidence of overheating
* Revised CPI, GDP estimates should not be cause for complacency
* Agri outlook still clouded by El Nino
* Govt taking steps to mitigate potential monsoon deficiency
* Concerns arising from West Asia conflict have not receded
* Trade policy uncertainties have been aggravated
* India needs to diversify its export markets urgently
* Recent FTAs to help labour-intensive sectors, diversify exports
* Must be extremely cautious in highly uncertain econ environment
* Must be watchful of emerging geopolitical, trade policy trends
* Must be watchful of emerging monsoon-related trends
* Must be watchful of impact of emerging trends on econ outlook
* See no case for monetary policy action at current juncture
* Neutral stance appropriate for such uncertain circumstances
 

SAUGATA BHATTACHARYA

* Risks have evolved since West Asia conflict began in Feb
* Other sources of uncertainty layered on West Asia risk
* India GDP-CPI dynamics still clouded; tad better than Jun
* GDP view seems to be aided by strong high frequency data
* Would exercise a word of caution on inflation
* High fuel prices likely to feed into 2nd round inflation
* See pass throughs of higher input costs to consumer prices
* CPI risks might be tilted to upside on high fuel price
* Fincl conditions continue to remain tight
* Fincl conditions eased since RBI's Jun steps on FX flows
* Overall flow of resources to corp sector resilient
* Apt to wait for demand rise before policy action
* Global uncertainty casting shadow on current, capital accts
* India CAD for Apr-May remains at sustainable levels
* Must track real interest rate level before policy action
* Must monitor growth-CPI for apt time to tweak policy rate
 

RAM SINGH

* Econ headwinds changed very little since Jun policy
* Rate cut expectations more uncertain in US
* India econ dynamics warrant close attention on both CPI, growth
* Fuel inflation modest in Jun on limited pass-through to retail
* Core inflation still below 4% in June
* CPI suggests limited pass-through so far of terms-of-trade shock
* FX inflows since Jun to stabilise rupee, limit imported inflation
* Input cost pressures building up, working through to CPI
* Higher energy prices reflecting in commercial LPG, raw materials
* Full impact of high energy prices will be visible in coming mos
* Projected pward deviation from 4% CPI aim to be significant
* Projected upward deviation from 4% CPI aim to be significant
* Upward deviation from 4% CPI aim may persist for several qtrs
* Inflation trajectory calls for close watch
* Incoming data key to gauge 2nd-round impact on CPI inflation
* India economy has shown remarkable resilience
* Q1 pvt sector capex number encouraging across sectors
* Services exports holding up well; goods exports grew strongly Q1
* Bank credit growth reinforces resilient growth prospects
* At current juncture, inflation-growth dynamics raise some issues
* Real interest rate warrants attention
* Core CPI inflation does not show signs of econ overheating yet
* Headline CPI remains a supply-side phenomenon as of now
* Potential growth rate with neutral interest rate well above 7%
* Monetary policy must ensure inflation expectations anchored
* High uncertainty looms over several key  monetary policy data
* Econ strain of conflict spillover becoming increasingly visible
* Must closely watch if and how inflation-related risks resolve
* Sensible to retain all operational flexibility to respond to CPI
* Must be able to adjust policy quickly for macroecon stability
 

End

Compiled by Vinodini Yadav

Filed by Rajeev Pai

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