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Informist, Tuesday, Aug. 18, 2026

 

By Arundathi A R

 

MUMBAI – Analysts expect bears to continue to take charge of the domestic equity market as crude oil prices escalated to a near-three-week high. Investors are likely to take a cautious approach due to sustained higher oil prices and rising input costs, analysts said.

The worsening situation on the West Asia war front hurt market sentiment. US President Donald Trump threatened to bomb ally Oman if it "gets in the way" of his administration's talks with Iran, the BBC reported, citing Fox News. Trump also claimed that informal talks were taking place with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps but said he is "not in a hurry" to make a deal, according to a CNBC report.

 

"If crude oil prices inch up to $100 per barrel in coming weeks, then the market will experience pressure for medium-to-short term," Kranthi Bathini, equity strategist at WealthMills Securities, said. Crude oil prices climbed to a near-three-week high of $91 a barrel.

 

Broking firm Kotak Securities expects the cumulative net profits of Nifty 50 companies to grow 18% in 2026-27 (Apr-Mar) and 14% in FY28, after a muted 8% growth in FY26. Growth will be broad-based across sectors and the risks of large downgrades are less likely, the brokerage said.

 

The brokerage views India's macroeconomic outlook as encouraging but choppy due to geopolitical volatility. The earnings outlook is healthy and valuations full-to-rich except in pockets despite a long period of time correction, the brokerage said in a strategy report. According to Kotak, decent June quarter results gave confidence about a strong FY27. "We expect moderate market returns once the Iran-US conflict normalizes," it said in the report.

 

India Ratings and Research sees the Indian economy likely to grow at a slower pace in FY27 from the previous year due to the war in West Asia and El Nino conditions. The rating agency estimated India's FY27 GDP growth at 6.8%, down from 7.7% in FY26. "The slowdown is attributed to higher fuel and food inflation stemming from the West Asia conflict's uncertainty, weak currency, and the likely impact of El Nino on agriculture," economists at India Ratings said.

 

"Sustaining 24000-24250 range is crucial in medium-to-short term," Bathini of WealthMills said. He expects the market to see some pressure if the index falls below 24000 points. At the end of the continuous trading session on the exchanges at 1515 IST, the Nifty 50 was at 24166.35 points, down 0.5% from Friday. The BSE Sensex was at 77325.87 points, down 0.5%. After the closing auction session, the Nifty 50 ended at 24154.90, down 132.75 points, or 0.6%. The Sensex ended at 77235.46, down 492.70 points, or 0.6%.

 

"Overall sentiment might favour the bears as the index continues to lose bullish momentum," Rupak De, senior technical analyst at LKP Securities, said in a note. "On the lower end, the fall might extend towards 24050–24000, where initial support is likely to emerge. On the other hand, resistance is visible at 24240."

 

Foreign investors net sold equity shares worth INR 25.35 billion on Monday, while domestic investors continued investing. They net bought equity shares worth INR 51.01 billion the previous day.

 

The rupee settled at 95.6800 per dollar Tuesday. The domestic unit fell against the dollar as crude oil prices surged to higher levels. "Crude oil moving towards $90 per barrel remains a key pressure point for the rupee, while market participants await the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting minutes for fresh cues on the dollar and its impact on emerging-market currencies," Jateen Trivedi, commodity and currency research analyst at LKP Securitie, said in a note. "The rupee is expected to trade in the 95.25–95.85 range in the near term."  End

 

US$1 = INR 95.68

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by deepshikha Bhardwaj

 

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