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Informist, Monday, Aug. 17, 2026

MUMBAI – Crude oil held onto the previous week's gains and traded near $90 per barrel as tensions in West Asia remained elevated, keeping markets wary of further supply disruptions. 

Over the weekend, Israel launched fresh strikes on Lebanon, killing 11 people, including a senior Hezbollah commander. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Friday that the Trump administration is preparing new economic sanctions against Iran that "have never been seen in the history of economic isolation of a country." These sanctions are aimed at forcing Iran to surrender, as pressure mounts on his administration to bring the military campaign to an end. 

The interim ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran is set to formally expire later Monday, while negotiations to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz remain deadlocked.

On the economic front, US retail sales fell 0.6% month-on-month in July, sharply missing expectations for a 0.1% rise and reversing June's 0.2% gain, data released on Friday showed. It was the first decline since October 2025 and the biggest since May last year. 

Consumer sentiment weakened to 51 in early August, down from 55.2 in July and below market expectations of 54.5, ending two consecutive months of improvement, according to data released by the University of Michigan

CURRENCIES: The dollar index fell to a two-month low in early trade Monday as the latest US economic data limited expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September to 30% from 33% Friday, according to the CME Fed Watch tool. 

The yen received underlying support from increased expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike after Bloomberg reported Thursday that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's government supports a BOJ rate hike in either September or October. The yen has support from the recent coordinated US-Japan intervention and fears that further intervention may follow if the currency remains weak.

--EUR/USD: $1.16 per euro, flat vs Friday, $1.15 Thursday

--USD/JPY: 159.05 yen per $1 vs 159.31 Friday, 159.46 Thursday

--Dollar Index: 99.53 vs 99.62 Friday, 99.95 Thursday

BONDS: The 10-year US Treasury yield eased slightly Monday as recent economic data limited the urgency for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Treasuries were under pressure amid concerns that Japan could sell some of its ample reserves if the Ministry of Finance defends against a weak yen again.

--10-year US bond yield: 4.69% Monday vs 4.70% Friday

STOCKS 
US: The US stock indices closed lower on Friday as weak macroeconomic data weighed. The S&P 500 eased 0.2% from its record high last week. The Dow Jones shed 108 points and the Nasdaq composite fell 0.3%. The indices fell as investors digested weaker-than-expected retail sales data Friday.

--NASDAQ Composite: 26729.164 Friday, down 73.86 points, or (-) 0.3% vs Thursday

--DJIA: 53732.41 Friday, down 107.58 points, or (-) 0.2% vs Thursday
--S&P 500: 7785.76 Friday, down 13.23 points, or (-) 0.2% vs Thursday

EUROPE: European shares ended lower on Friday, snapping a four-week winning streak, as tech and pharma stocks pulled back. Rising crude prices and renewed geopolitical ‌tensions also weighed on the stocks. The STOXX 600 ended 0.2% lower at 657.86 ‌and logged a 0.3% drop on a weekly basis.

--EURO STOXX 50: 6539.59 Friday, down 5.88 points, or 0.1% vs Thursday

ASIA: Asian markets opened mixed Monday. Nikkei 225 fell 0.2% as Japan's economy expanded just 1.1% in the second quarter on an annualised basis, missing expectations for 2% growth as lower domestic demand offset strong exports. South Korean markets are closed for Liberation Day. Investors in Asian markets will be looking ahead to China's July industrial production and retail sales data due Monday.

--NIKKEI 225: 68583.87 Monday, down 129.93 points, or (-) 0.2% vs Friday

--HANG SENG: 25400.74 Monday, up 283.89 points, or 1.1% vs Friday

COMMODITIES 

CRUDE OIL: Crude oil prices opened slightly higher Monday on fears of significant supply risks as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed and tensions between Iran and the US show little sign of easing. Shipping activity through the strategic waterway has collapsed. According to Kpler, only two vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, and neither was carrying crude compared with more than 130 vessels passing through the waterway each day before the war began on Feb. 28.

--ICE Brent Oct futures (per barrel): $89.09 Monday vs $88.52 Friday
--NYMEX WTI Sept futures (per barrel): $82.75 Monday vs $82.40 Friday

PRECIOUS METALS: Gold traded above $4,400 an ounce on Monday as investors weighed weaker-than-expected US economic data that reduced expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate hike against persistent tensions in West Asia.  

--COMEX Oct gold futures (ounce): $4424.7 Monday vs $4403.7 Friday
--COMEX Sept silver futures (ounce): $65.99 Monday vs $65.11 Friday

End

US$1 = INR 95.4250

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Compiled by Divya Moolayattil

Edited by Saji George Titus

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