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Informist, Thursday, Aug. 13, 2026

 

By Shweta

 

NEW DELHI – India's wholesale price inflation is likely to have inched up in July on the back of higher food prices as well as an unfavourable base effect. WPI inflation is seen in double digits for the first time in the new series. According to the median of estimates from 12 economists, WPI inflation in July is seen at 10%, up from 9.87% in June.

 

If the estimate holds true, July will be the eighth consecutive month of rising inflation at the wholesale level. Economists expect WPI inflation for July to range from 9.75% to 10.45%. WPI inflation stood at (-)0.8% in July last year under the new series. The commerce ministry will release WPI data for July at 1200 IST Friday.

 

Wholesale prices remained higher last month, primarily driven by the industrial input prices as well as crude oil prices, said Indranil Pan, chief economist at YES Bank. "Both (input and crude oil prices) have been jumpy on account of the yo-yoing sentiments around West Asia."

 

The pass-through from WPI to CPI will remain a risk if input cost pressures last long and tend to squeeze profit margins, according to Pan.

 

Economists at Union Bank of India estimate food inflation to have accelerated to 6.94% on year in July from 6.14% in June. According to data from the Department of Consumer Affairs, wholesale prices of some edible oils rose 1.1% on month in July. Onion prices at the wholesale level rose over 26.6% on month and prices of potato rose 5% on month in July. However, wholesale prices of tomato fell nearly 1% on month in July.

 

"Delayed and below-normal monsoon and lagging sowing progress in parts of the country, together with transport-cost pass-through from firmer fuel prices, poses an upside risk to food WPI into the festive months," Kanika Pasricha, chief economic advisor at Union Bank of India, said in a note.

 

According to the India Meteorological Department, rainfall across the country in the southwest monsoon season so far is 12?low normal. Also, the spatial distribution remains uneven, with only 58% receiving normal rainfall.

 

Core WPI inflation, which excludes food and fuel items, is seen at 7.5% in July, steady from a month ago, according to the Informist poll.

 

WPI inflation is expected to remain well above its retail counterpart in July. CPI inflation rose to a 19-month high of 4.45% in July from 4.38% a month ago. 

 

"WPI remains more sensitive than CPI to oil and global commodity price shocks; together with the below-normal monsoon/sowing risk on the food side, this warrants close monitoring into the festive-season demand pick-up," Pasricha said.

 

Following is a summary of the poll by Informist on WPI inflation in July, in ascending order of the estimates:

 

ORGANISATION	JULY WPI INFLATION ESTIMATE
Union Bank of India	10.45%
Nomura	10.3%
ICICI Securities Primary Dealership	10.2%
STCI Primary Dealer	10.1%
ICICI Bank	10.07%
ICRA	10%
CareEdge Ratings	10%
Motilal Oswal	10%
India Ratings and Research	10%
State Bank of India	9.98%
Sunidhi Securites	9.94%
YES Bank	9.75%

 

End

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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