More Stories

Informist, Wednesday, Aug. 12, 2026

 

Please click here to read all liners published on this story

--MoSPI Secy Garg: Expect to release headline ISP in 7-8 months
--CONTEXT: MoSPI Secretary Garg's comments in interview with Informist 
--MoSPI Garg: May release back series for new GDP series by end of 2026
--MoSPI Garg: Revised data series show Indian economy is more resilient
--MoSPI Garg: Need more history to compile seasonally adjusted GDP
--MoSPI Garg: Work on seasonally adjusted IIP in progress
--MoSPI Garg: Need Census data to start next household consumption survey
--MoSPI Garg: Aim to start household consumption survey by July 2027
--MoSPI Garg: Household consumption survey could get delayed to Apr 2028
--MoSPI Garg: No proposal to release official core inflation data
--MoSPI Garg: To replace WPI with PPI in calculation of Q1 GDP estimates
--MoSPI Garg: Aim to cover 100% of formal services sectors in ISP
--MoSPI Garg: Use of imputation for CPI in line with global best practices
--MoSPI Garg: Focus is on granular data release for better decision making
 

 

By Shweta and Aaryan Khanna

 

NEW DELHI – The statistics ministry aims to release the headline Index of Services Production by the end of the current financial year in March or early in the next financial year, after monitoring the resilience of the experimental indices, Secretary Saurabh Garg said. The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation also aims to release back-series data for the new GDP series with base year 2022-23 (Apr-Mar) by the end of 2026, Garg told Informist in an interview on Monday.

 

The experimental Index of Services Production was released on Jul. 14 with data from 19 sub-sectors accounting for roughly 60% of the services sector. The ministry is expanding data collection for health and education and ownership of dwellings, while adding data from the Public Financial Management System in an attempt to maximise coverage of the formal services sector, Garg said.

 

Though he said he would not like to pre-empt the Apr-Jun GDP growth data, Garg noted that high-frequency data appeared to show an economy that was dealing well with the impact of the war in West Asia. The base-year revisions and new data sets only seemed to highlight the resilience, he said. Last week, the Reserve Bank of India had raised its GDP growth forecast for the June quarter to 7.0% from 6.6%. In a report on Tuesday, State Bank of India Research said that based on its nowcast model, growth during the quarter was pegged at 8.0%. 

 

"Obviously, the discussion that the Indian economy is resilient seems to be showing up in the data... so, those components seem to indicate that the economy is doing well," Garg said. "And the RBI projections are in a way translating that feeling into numbers."

 

The quarterly GDP estimates will incorporate the Producer Price Index instead of the Wholesale Price Index, starting from the release on Aug. 31, he said.

Meanwhile, the next Household Consumption Expenditure Survey is scheduled to start in July 2027 but may be delayed to the next financial year in the worst case, Garg said. The latest population census data would be crucial for the new survey, which will last a year, he said. The ministry had set up a technical expert group and was hoping to start in 2027, as the survey's requirements from the census data would be modest. 

 

"... it is imperative that we use the revised sampling frame based on latest Population Census data for this survey," the secretary said. "Therefore, the timeline may be revised depending on the availability of Population Census 2027 data." The survey captures patterns of household consumption and expenditure on goods and services. It also provides data used to update the basket of consumer goods and services and the weights used to calculate the CPI. With the relevant data in place, Garg is confident that even with such a delay, the statistics ministry will be able to provide an updated basket of goods and services when required for the CPI base year revision in FY30.  

 

Following are edited excerpts of the interview with Garg, whose term as secretary has been extended by a year to July 2027. He speaks in depth about the recent overhaul of India's statistical measures, his own priorities, and why the government remains opposed to publishing a core inflation measure: 

 

Q. This year saw base year revision or rollout of indices. How will these indices help in compilation of quarterly national accounts and India's GDP growth estimates?

A. The revised CPI series has already been incorporated into the GDP estimation process. Following the recent release of the new IIP (Index of Industrial Production) series and the Producer Price Index by the DPIIT (Department of Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade), the ministry will also incorporate the revised IIP series and replace the WPI with the PPI, in the compilation of GDP estimates.

 

These updated indices will improve the measurement of both volume and price movements, thereby enhancing the accuracy and robustness of quarterly GDP estimates.

 

Q. From your perspective, how have the base year revisions changed the readings for CPI and GDP? Do the changes in data show a lower impact of the war in West Asia?

A. There are three major changes that we did from the old ways: methodological changes, more sources of data, and updating the products that we were capturing. All these have helped to show a much truer picture of the economy, which fortunately has turned out to be that it is so much more resilient than it was.

 

And I think the methodological changes have shown that what was being actually criticised, double deflation not being done, it didn't really matter. In fact, this slightly improved the numbers rather than everyone thinking that we are padding up the numbers because of double deflation. It's perhaps the reverse – we were understating those numbers.

 

But there's been a marginal difference. In some sectors, better, some sectors worse. Overall, it cancelled out. But those changes have been 0.1% or 0.5%, not 1% or 2%. So it's not that the picture of the economy was very different in the old days. It's just that you have more data in the new base, not to be able to question that data.

 

Q. NSO was planning to release seasonally adjusted GDP and IIP data. What has been the progress on that?

A. The compilation of seasonally adjusted GDP estimates requires availability of a sufficiently long time series of quarterly GDP estimates as a prerequisite. Once such long time series of unadjusted quarterly GDP estimates under the new base year becomes available, compilation and dissemination of seasonally adjusted GDP estimates will be explored.

 

The work relating to the compilation of seasonally adjusted IIP is under progress. The methodology and related technical aspects are being examined in line with internationally accepted practices. The release of seasonally adjusted IIP estimates will be considered after completion of the necessary methodological and validation exercises.

 

Q: By when will you release back data on the GDP series?

A. Back series of the GDP estimates based on the new series is planned to be released by the end of the current year.

 

Q. The RBI has recently raised the projection of India's GDP growth to 7.0%. What is your takeaway from the growth numbers so far? Will we be able to achieve that forecast?

A. I wouldn't like to anticipate what the GDP numbers will be coming up at the end of this month. But if you look at the IIP data for April and May, which are already in the public domain, it is much higher than what was expected. If you look at the inflation data, it's much lower than what was projected.

 

And you look at the ISP data also, which is out for two months, even though you don't have a headline number, you look at different sectors. Obviously, the discussion that the Indian economy is resilient seems to be showing up in the data. And the components which help to make GDP, IIP is a component, services production is a component. So, those components seem to indicate that the economy is doing well. And the RBI projections are in a way translating that feeling into numbers. I don't think I have more than that to say.

 

Q. When will you conduct the next household consumption expenditure survey?

A. The steering committee of NSS (National Sample Survey) has recommended undertaking HCES (Household Consumption Expenditure Survey) after every three years. Thus, the next HCES is tentatively scheduled to be conducted during July 2027 to June 2028. We have initiated necessary groundwork in this regard through formation of a technical expert group. However, it is imperative that we use the revised sampling frame based on latest Population Census data for this survey. Therefore, the timeline may be revised depending on the availability of Population Census 2027 data.

 

Q. Why is the population census data important for the HCES and could it delay the next round?

A. The Census is set to end around February or March of next year. We have tentatively kept July 2027 (as the start for the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey). We are hoping that we do not have to push it more than towards the end of the year or, at most, the worst case scenario is moving to the next financial year. We are hoping to get the survey started somewhere between July 2027 and, at the latest, by April 2028, as our data requirements are not too heavy.

 

We might as well use the new census. By the time it ends in a year, the full data should be out for the new census. It does not make sense to bring out the survey with data from the old census.

 

Q. Now, since the RBI has started forecasting core inflation, excluding food and fuel, will NSO also release core inflation?

A. In most countries, core inflation is compiled and published mainly by their respective central banks. The ministry releases the headline inflation along with detailed indices at the division, group, class, sub-class and item levels, enabling users to derive analytical measures as per their requirements.

 

In India, the Reserve Bank of India has been publishing forecasts of core inflation as part of its monetary policy communication. At present, MoSPI has no proposal to release an official core inflation measure.

 

Q. You say there is no proposal to publish core inflation. Why has that not been taken up by MoSPI?

A. The committee last time went into this issue in detail. So, number one, none of the statistics offices globally brings it out, it is usually done by central banks. That is what the RBI is also doing now.

 

And, it also then confuses the individual. However much you might want to educate consumers, if every month if you bring out two sets of data, economists might get it. But we are not publishing the data for economists; we are publishing it for the general people. Even we can calculate it and publish it, there is nothing stopping us from doing it. But because of the international practices that are, because we are looking at it from a consumer's point of view, and for consumer, the basket is what we have chosen.

 

Q. Once the Producer Price Index is out, will it completely replace the WPI in the GDP series use case?

A. Yes, the ministry is going to incorporate the new PPI series replacing WPI in the compilation of both annual and quarterly National Accounts. The updated estimates based on PPI are planned to be released by end of August 2026 along with the release of GDP estimates for Apr-Jun FY27.

 

Q. MoSPI is undertaking the Annual Survey of Incorporated Services Sector Enterprises, which is expected to be completed by March 2027, and the results would be released about three months after its completion. Would this lead to the addition of unorganised services sector in the ISP? If yes, does this indicate India will have an overall ISP data?

A. The ISP covers the formal sector of the economy. The Annual Survey of Incorporated Service Sector Enterprises (ASISSE) covers the incorporated/organised services sector. For measuring the unincorporated/unorganised sector of the economy, the ministry undertakes Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE) and publishes quarterly and annual results. MoSPI is exploring the feasibility of compiling a composite index for the unorganised sector covering both manufacturing and services based on ASUSE data.

 

Q. Currently, ISP does not include some services such as core government activities - public administration, defence, and financial services activities of the Reserve Bank of India – due to lack of coverage under different data sources. But is there scope for inclusion of these services in the index in the future as these services hold importance?

A. The core government activities and financial services activities of the Reserve Bank of India are primarily non–market in nature. It has not been possible to include these activities in the purview of ISP at present due to unavailability of high frequency output indicators for them. One of the possible data sources which the ministry is exploring for covering these services is the government expenditure captured through PFMS.

 

Q. ISP rollout has had its own struggles before India finally had the maiden provisional data. How were these challenges overcome? What are the current challenges?

A. The services sector is very heterogeneous and mostly driven by small private entities. The compilation of ISP in India has faced challenges related to limited availability of high-frequency administrative datasets covering service-producing industries.

 

Availability of high-frequency GST (goods and services tax) data on outward supplies of service-producing units has been possible only in recent years, making this attempt feasible.  

 

Q. When can we see release of the headline ISP?

A. An overall Index of Services Production has not yet been released due to data coverage limitations. At present, 19 sub-sectors that account for roughly 60% of the services economy are covered in ISP.

 

The trial ISPs are released with an intent to receive feedback on the methodological framework from stakeholders, academicians and researchers. The ministry will also observe the resilience of the trial indices at least for a period of six months. After taking into account these aspects, the ministry will consider releasing headline ISP in next seven-eight months.

 

Q. Is there a possibility to cover 100% of the formal services sector under ISP? If yes, what is the timeline? If no, what are the hurdles?

A. At present the sub–sectors covered in ISP account for about 60% of the total services sector. The ultimate objective is definitely to enhance the coverage of ISP.

 

The ministry is working to increase the coverage by tapping administrative/alternative data sources for health and education. Their inclusion will increase the coverage by around 10%. Data sources are also being examined for capturing growth of ownership of dwellings, which accounts for around 14.5% of the services sector.

 

As stated earlier, the ministry is also exploring the PFMS data to capture public administration, defence, and financial services activities of the Reserve Bank of India.

 

Q. Do you see the ISP completely replacing Services Purchasing Managers' Index? Also, what is the progress on transition from Wholesale Price Index to the output Producer Price Index?

A. The ISP and the Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) are two very different indices. The ISP is a macroeconomic indicator which tracks output using data on outwards supplies from GST and other administrative datasets, whereas the PMI is a perception-based gauge of business sentiment and manager expectations

 

In case of compilation of IIP, MoSPI has already shifted to output PPI from WPI as a deflator.

 

Q. The timeline for ISP data release is with a lag of 60 days as GST data is released with a lag of around 45 days after the end of the reference period. However, the technical advisory committee said DPIIT needs to intensify the efforts for releasing the Service Producer Price Indices for all major service sub-sectors. How can the DPIIT plan on improving the frequency of compilation of ISP on a monthly basis?

A. The timeliness of release of ISP have been formulated taking into the account the timeliness of availability of GST data. At present, the ministry has been receiving GST data at an interval of 45 days from the end of reference period. Once the compilation process stabilises, efforts would be made to improve the timelines to the extent possible.

 

The frequency of compilation of ISP and SPPI (Services Producer Price Index) are monthly and quarterly, respectively. The data on SPPI is available only for limited services. Further, as the SPPIs are available with a quarterly frequency and a lag of 60 days, their use in monthly ISP may not be feasible. Thus, use of CPI-based deflators has been made.

 

Q. Currently, the gap between the CPI and WPI is 549 basis points. Why has the wholesale level inflation in the first three months of FY27 not fully transmitted to the consumer level so far? Do you see wholesale inflation seeping into CPI in the coming months?

A. The CPI and the WPI are designed for different statistical purposes and, therefore, are not directly comparable.

Wholesale price movements are not necessarily transmitted fully or immediately to consumers because of changes in taxes, distribution margins, logistics costs, market competition, and pricing strategies.

 

Q. In indices such as CPI and IIP, imputation methodology is used for missing values or temporary non-responsive segments or items. Don't you think this may raise questions on the credibility of the high-frequency data and, ultimately, GDP growth of the country?

A. The imputation methodology used in high-frequency indicators such as the CPI and the IIP has been approved by the respective technical advisory committees and is consistent with internationally accepted statistical standards and best practices. The methodology is scientifically designed, transparent, and regularly reviewed, thereby maintaining the reliability and credibility of these indicators and the macroeconomic aggregates compiled using them.

 

Imputation is applied only in exceptional situations, such as when a price quotation is temporarily unavailable due to short-term stock-outs, seasonal non-availability, temporary closure of an outlet, or other non-response.

 

The use of imputation does not compromise the credibility or reliability of the CPI. On the contrary, it ensures continuity of the index and prevents distortions that could arise from excluding temporarily unavailable observations. The methodology is documented, consistently applied across time and regions and in line with international best practices.

 

Q. What have your priorities been so far and what can we see next from the ministry?

A. I have been focusing on what the gaps are in our statistical releases. One example is the ISP. We brought out the services sector survey (ASISSE) that was a gap.

 

In fact, we are scanning the other statistical offices (around the world) to find out what we are doing, what we are not. Now, we can't find anything that we are missing, at least in terms of a gap. In the services index, we have a retail trade report. So that takes care of having a separate independent retail trade report because it is subsumed in this.

 

So that's why we are making the data so much more granular. IIP is so much more granular, CPI is so much more granular. National accounts in any case have been granular. We are looking at what other granularity we can retain. Our focus is looking at it from a decision maker's lens. With granularity, our policymakers can use this data much more effectively.

 

The focus will inter alia be on advancing the integration of alternative and non-traditional data sources and progressing towards the implementation of the upcoming System of National Accounts (SNA) 2025 framework in the next base revision.

 

The ministry is in the process of finalising the methodological document, 'Sources and Methods', which will provide a comprehensive description of the concepts, classifications, data sources, compilation procedures and estimation methodologies underlying the new GDP series. This document will be published shortly to promote transparency and facilitate a better understanding among users.

 

We are also in close coordination with states and Union territories for facilitating them to compile estimates of gross state domestic product as per the new base year. States are expected to finalise their estimates by August/September 2026.

 

Besides these, integration of AI, machine learning and big data into official statistics will be an important area. Efforts have already started, including the establishment of a data innovation lab and collaboration with multiple stakeholders to develop practical use cases, though there is still room for further advancement.

 

Harmonisation of administrative data sets represents another focus area. The wealth of data held by ministries, departments, and state/Union territory governments has potential to be harmonised further. Information from harmonised data sets will enable generation of novel insight for evidence-based policymaking.

 

The ministry has released its Vision Document for 2026-2031 that articulates the strategic direction over the next few years with focus areas such as modernisation of statistical processes, strengthening of data governance frameworks, and harnessing the potential for new and emerging data sources.  End

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (11) 4220-1000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.