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Informist, Wednesday, Aug. 12, 2026

 

By Anand JC

 

MUMBAI – Ashok Leyland Ltd. is projected to report a healthy year-on-year increase in revenue in the June quarter, primarily driven by growth in wholesale despatches of its commercial vehicles and higher average selling prices following price hikes, according to brokerages. Yet, revenue growth may not translate into a stronger bottom line because of higher commodity costs, analysts said.

 

Ashok Leyland is expected to report a net profit of INR 5.92 billion for the June quarter, down marginally on year, according to the average of 16 estimates. Projections for the commercial vehicle maker's net profit vary widely, with the highest estimate being INR 7.97 billion from Axis Securities Ltd. and the lowest being INR 5.31 billion from BofA Securities India Ltd.

 

Its revenue from operations for the quarter under review is seen at INR 97.47 billion, up 12% on year, according to the average of 16 estimates. The highest estimate for revenue is INR 99.66 billion from JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd., and the lowest is INR 94.94 billion from ICICI Securities Ltd.

 

Most of its revenue growth is expected to be because of an uptick in volumes, analysts said. Ashok Leyland sold 48,763 commercial vehicles in the June quarter, up 10% on year but down 30% on quarter. The sequential fall was due to production disruptions at its plant in the UAE because of the war in West Asia, according to Axis Securities.

 

The Chennai-based automotive major, part of the Hinduja Group, designs, manufactures, and sells a wide portfolio of heavy-duty vehicles, powertrains, and defence transit solutions. It has a presence in the electric commercial vehicle market through its subsidiary, Switch Mobility. Ashok Leyland is India's third-biggest commercial vehicle company in terms of market share. It had a retail market share of 17.75% in the entire commercial vehicle segment as of Jul. 30, down from 18.95% a year ago.

 

Ashok Leyland's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation for the June quarter is seen at INR 9.52 billion, down around 2% on year, according to the average of 13 estimates. Projections for the company's EBITDA range from a low of INR 8.71 billion by BofA Securities India Ltd to a high of INR 12.22 billion by Axis Securities.

 

Ashok Leyland's EBITDA margin is expected to decline sharply year-on-year because of commodity cost pressures, a product mix tilted towards lower-margin products, and higher operational expenses due to multiple disruptions, according to Kotak Securities. The brokerage expects Ashok Leyland's EBITDA margin to slide 185 basis points year-on-year and 532 bps quarter-on-quarter to 9.3%.

 

The company will declare its June-quarter earnings Friday. Wednesday, shares of Ashok Leyland ended 1.1% higher at INR 176.70 on the National Stock Exchange. The stock is up around 14% since the company announced its March quarter results on May 28. 

 

Of the 13 research reports on the company available with Informist, nine have a 'buy' recommendation on the stock at an average target price of INR 197, which is roughly 11% higher than the current market price. Four brokerages have a 'hold' recommendation on the stock at an average target price of INR 172.

 

The following are the June quarter earnings estimates for Ashok Leyland from 16 brokerages, in descending order of the estimate of net profit, in INR billion:

 

Brokerage	Net sales	Net profit	EBITDA
Axis Securities Ltd.	97.61	7.97	12.22
Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd.	98.59	6.59	10.11
PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd.	98.42	6.28	9.83
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd.	99.66	6.15	9.71
Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd.	97.35	6.14	N.A.
HDFC Securities Ltd.	97.43	5.97	N.A.
YES Securities (India) Ltd.	97.92	5.82	9.46
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd.	96.85	5.80	9.29
Nomura Equity Research	96.01	5.68	9.32
SMIFS Ltd.	96.65	5.66	9.17
ICICI Securities Ltd.	94.94	5.61	9.11
Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd.	97.43	5.51	9.06
360 ONE Capital Market Pvt. Ltd.	98.42	5.48	N.A.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.	97.13	5.45	8.84
Kotak Securities Ltd.	96.29	5.38	8.93
BofA Securities India Ltd.	98.92	5.31	8.71
Average	97.47	5.92	9.52

End

 

Edited by Himanshi Gupta

 

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