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Informist, Wednesday, Aug. 12, 2026

 

MUMBAI – The El Nino event is firmly established, and both oceanic and atmospheric indices reflect values consistent with a strong El Nino. Further intensification of the event is likely during the Southern Hemisphere spring, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said in its fortnightly report on Tuesday. Given the current strength of El Nino, in addition to the typical life cycle of such an event, it is likely to last well into the Southern Hemisphere autumn, the weather bureau said.

 

Spring in the Southern Hemisphere spans from September to December, and autumn from March to May.

 

As of Sunday, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation index value was 2.20 degrees Celsius, which is well above the El Nino threshold of 0.80 degrees Celsius, and indicative of a strong event. All international climate models, including the weather bureau's, forecast the tropical Pacific Ocean to continue warming through the Southern Hemisphere spring, supported by excess heat in the sub-surface, the bureau said. The equatorial upper ocean heat anomalies recorded during July were the highest on record since 1979.

 

Atmospheric indicators such as trade winds, pressure, and cloud patterns are currently indicative of a strong El Nino. The Southern Oscillation Index remains strongly negative, with the latest 30-day index at (-)25.6 degrees Celsius. The Southern Oscillation Index tracks the atmospheric part of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation, comparing the difference from average air pressure in the western Pacific, measured in Darwin, Australia, to the difference from average pressure in the central Pacific, measured in Tahiti.

 

International climate models indicate that the ongoing El Nino event is likely to cause sea surface temperatures to peak at levels above the warmest observed since 1950, the weather bureau said. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is linked to drier, hotter weather in India, while La Nina is associated with more favourable rainfall.

 

The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently neutral. As of Sunday, the weekly Indian Ocean Dipole index was 0.41 degrees Celsius, marking the third consecutive week that the index has remained at the positive threshold of 0.40 degrees Celsius. However, sustained values above this threshold are required before a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is considered to be established, the weather bureau said. International climate models suggest a positive event will develop during August and persist into the Southern Hemisphere spring. However, some uncertainty persists among forecasts about the timing and strength of this positive event, the bureau said. 

 

The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole leads to less rainfall in India, while a positive index leads to more rainfall. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole could mitigate some effects of an El Nino event on the southwest monsoon in India.

 

For the remaining two months of the southwest monsoon season that runs from June through September, India is forecast to continue receiving below-normal rainfall as El Nino conditions are expected to persist through August and September, the India Meteorological Department said. The Indian weather department expects El Nino conditions to remain moderate during August but strengthen towards September as the Indian Ocean Dipole is forecast to transition from neutral to positive during September.  End

 

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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