Rising exports
EXIM Bank research sees India's goods exports up 17.6% to $131.2 billion in Q2
This story was originally published at 13:13 IST on 12 August 2026
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NEW DELHI – Export-Import Bank of India forecasts India's merchandise exports to rise 17.6% on year to $131.2 billion in Jul-Sept despite global uncertainties. This growth will be supported by increasing geographical diversification along with favourable prospects arising from recent trade agreements with major trading partners and buoyant demand in partner countries, the bank said in a report.
It forecast non-oil exports to rise 20.3% to $113.8 billion during the current quarter, while non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports are projected to rise 20.5% to INR $105.8 billion.
In Apr-Jun, India's merchandise trade deficit widened over 26% on year to $86.86 billion. Merchandise imports rose to $216.18 billion in Apr-Jun, up from $180.31 billion a year ago, while exports grew to $129.32 billion during the period. India's merchandise imports rose during Apr-Jun, mainly due to higher inbound shipments of petroleum products, crude oil, and electronic goods.
During Apr-Jun, India's exports of petroleum products rose to $23.02 billion from $17.03 billion a year ago. Engineering goods exports increased to $34.14 billion during the period from $28.91 billion a year ago. The gross exports of gems and jewellery in Apr-Jun rose marginally to $6.612 billion from $6.610 billion during the same period last year.
EXIM Bank releases forecasts of India's merchandise exports on a quarterly basis based on its Export Leading Index model. The next growth forecast for India's exports for Oct-Dec will be released during the first fortnight of November. The in-house model takes into account several external and domestic factors that could impact India's exports.
According to the report, India's positive export outlook is expected to be driven by sustained expansion in domestic manufacturing and exchange rate movements. "However, there are downside risks emanating from geopolitical conflicts and volatility in international commodity markets," it said.
India's exports have faced threats from ongoing global uncertainties, especially the war in West Asia, but have shown resilience so far. According to Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal, India is well on track to achieve $1 trillion exports in 2026-27 (Apr-Mar). He sees goods exports totalling $530 billion by the end of this fiscal year, compared with $447.70 billion in FY26. End
US$1 = INR 95.40
Reported by Priyasmita Dutta
Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj
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