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Informist, Wednesday, Aug. 12, 2026

MUMBAI – The monsoon is likely to see multiple breaks during the rest of August, with one such break likely around Sunday, private weather forecasting agency Skymet said. While the duration of the break is unpredictable currently, more clarity is likely in the next two to three days. Such a break will restrict rainfall to the foothills of the Himalayas, parts of Bihar, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, and northeast India, the weather agency said.

Unlike July, no powerful weather systems have formed over the Bay of Bengal so far in August and are unlikely to form in the rest of the month. The pauses in the development of such weather systems have derailed the momentum of monsoon bursts observed in July, the weather agency said. These weather systems have been absent due to the development of the powerful typhoon 'Dolphin', which ravaged the South China Coast on Saturday and Sunday. More storms are forming over the Sea of Japan, East Philippine Sea, and further parts of the west Pacific Ocean.

Strong storms tracking along the South China Sea and West Philippine Sea can temporarily alter large-scale atmospheric circulation and misalign the monsoon stream flow over the Indian sea. Such a pattern suppresses convection over the Bay of Bengal, leading to the delay or decay of potential monsoon weather systems, the weather agency said.

Two weak monsoon systems had formed during the first 10 days of August, which triggered intense rainfall but kept it restricted to small pockets. The current low-pressure area over northwest Madhya Pradesh is expected to weaken and merge with the monsoon trough in the next 24-36 hours. Another weak low pressure area is expected to form over the Bay of Bengal, which is expected to cause rainfall only over parts of east India and its adjacent regions. 

Once the monsoon break begins around Sunday, most regions of the country, save some parts of east and northeast India, will remain deficient in showers, the weather agency said. Such breaks typically last for more than a week, impacting the distribution of rainfall across the country. As such, August is likely to end with below-normal rainfall. If the season's deficit rises beyond 12% by the end of August, forecasts of an even weaker monsoon in September leave little room for the overall season to end on a near-normal note. End

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Himanshi Gupta

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