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Informist, Tuesday, Aug. 11, 2026

By Ashutosh Pati

MUMBAI – Higher prices and a rise in sales volumes are expected to support iron ore major NMDC Ltd.'s top line for the June quarter. However, its bottom line growth is seen flat year-on-year while profitability is expected to be under pressure due to higher royalty outgo amid a gap in output and dispatches, according to brokerages tracking the company.

NMDC is expected to post a standalone net profit of INR 19.56 billion for the June quarter, broadly flat on year but down over 3% on quarter, as per an average of estimates from 13 brokerages. The highest estimate for the company's net profit is INR 21.35 billion from Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. and the lowest is INR 18.21 billion from YES Securities (India) Ltd.

The company's revenue from operations is likely to rise over 19% on year to INR 79.03 billion for the quarter, as per the average of estimates. Sequentially, NMDC's top line is expected to decline over 29%. Estimates for the company's revenue range from a high of INR 103.83 billion from Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd. to a low of 64.45 billion from Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd.

NMDC sold 11.75 million tonnes of iron ore in the June quarter, up 2% on year. The company's iron ore production during the quarter rose around 26% on year to nearly 15.10 million tonnes. This rise in sales was driven by a nearly 14% increase in Chhattisgarh dispatches at 9.29 million tonnes. However, it was partly offset by a 28.9% decline in Karnataka dispatches at 2.41 million tonnes, Equirus Securities Pvt. Ltd. said.

The iron ore major raised prices in all three months of the June quarter. NMDC raised prices of iron ore fines by INR 800 per tonne during the quarter to INR 4,850 per tonne, while iron ore lumps prices were increased by INR 900 per tonne to INR 5,700 per tonne.

NMDC's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation are seen falling 10% on year and around 19% on quarter to INR 25.01 billion, as per the average of 12 estimates. The highest estimate for the company's EBITDA is INR 28.50 billion from Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. and the lowest is INR 21.66 billion from Equirus Securities.

Equirus said the company's EBITDA per tonne is likely to remain under pressure as the "widening gap between production and dispatches is expected to result in higher royalty outflows." PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. echoed a similar sentiment, saying higher royalty outgo on account of higher production would impact NMDC's EBITDA for the June quarter.

Investors will watch for updates regarding commissioning of key growth projects and environmental clearance limit enhancements, Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd said.

NMDC will announce its June quarter earnings Friday. On Tuesday, its shares closed flat at INR 85.45 on the National Stock Exchange. The company had reported a net profit of INR 20.20 billion for the March quarter on revenues of INR 111.73 billion. Since then, its shares have fallen 8%.

Of the 10 brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, six have a "buy" or equivalent recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 99 per share. This is 16% higher than the current market price. Two each have "hold" and "sell" recommendations.

Following are the June quarter earnings estimates for NMDC from 13 brokerages in descending order by the estimate of net profit in INR billion:

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Edited by Himanshi Gupta

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