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Informist, Friday, Aug. 7, 2026

 

NEW DELHI – India's GDP growth is estimated at 8% in the Apr-Jun quarter, with the underlying momentum remaining broad-based, according to a State Bank of India nowcasting model. SBI's growth projection for Apr-Jun is 100 basis points higher than the Reserve Bank of India's forecast of 7%. "We track more than 50 leading indicators across consumption and demand, agriculture, industry, services and other sectors, with 86% showing acceleration in Q1 FY27, compared with 69% in Q1 FY26," the bank's Chief Economist Soumya Kanti Ghosh said in a report Tuesday. 

 

Consumption and demand remain resilient, with high-frequency demand indicators continuing to support the growth outlook, the report said. Industrial activity remains broadly satisfactory, barring a few pockets, it added. Services sector activity indicators also provide further support to the growth outlook, it said, adding that other indicators also corroborate the 8% growth estimate. 

 

The government's capital expenditure remains supportive of domestic growth, with states also maintaining last year's momentum, the report said. "Capex spending by 20 states stood at 10.5% of the Budget estimate in Q1 FY27, against 10.9% in Q1 FY26, and grew 5.5% YoY; central capex rose to 27.8% of Budget estimate from 24.5%, registering 23.7% growth," the report said. 

 

The Narendra Modi-led government has stepped up capital expenditure sharply to drive growth. The Budget for FY27 projected the government's capital expenditure at INR 12.21 trillion, more than six times the capital expenditure in FY15.

 

The report also noted that monsoon conditions have improved. "A nearly 40% rainfall deficit in June was partly offset by surplus rainfall in July and normal rains in August, bringing the overall deficit down to around 12%," it said. The positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions could also partly offset the impact of El Nio, the report added. 

 

The RBI last week revised up its GDP growth forecast for FY27 by 10 basis points to 6.7%. "Data of July high-frequency indicators and monsoon progress suggest continued growth momentum. Thus, we believe that going forward growth is likely to be robust," Ghosh said in the report. 

 

The National Statistics Office will release the GDP growth estimates for Apr-Jun on Aug. 31. End

 

Reported by Priyasmita Dutta

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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