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Informist, Friday, Aug. 7, 2026

 

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--Lupin: India formulation sales to continue to outperforming mkt growth
--CONTEXT: Comments from Lupin mgmt in post-earnings call with analysts
--Lupin: See sales moderating in remainder of FY27 due on high US competition
--Lupin: Expect better sales growth in US from FY28 onwards
--Lupin: See high-single digit revenue growth in FY27, 25?ITDA margin
--Lupin: Will invest about 8% of sales for R&D in FY27
--Lupin: Expect Pegfilgrastim to contribute meaningfully to sales in Oct-Mar
--Lupin: Expect heavy competition in Tolvaptan, Mirabegron sales in next qtrs
--Lupin: Expect US sales of $250 mln - $280 mln per quarter in FY27
--Lupin: Expect 60-70 innovative drug launches in India over next 10 yrs
--Lupin: Hope to get a third of domestic revenues from innovative drugs in 10 yrs
--Lupin: Expect diagnostics ops to break even in FY28
--Lupin: Expect sales from Europe to grow 10-20% in FY27
--Lupin: Expect double-digit revenue growth from Rest of World region in FY27

 

By Eshitva Prakash and Afra Abubacker

 

MUMBAI – Lupin Ltd. expects its revenue growth in the US to moderate sharply for the remaining quarters of financial year 2026-27 (Apr-Mar), primarily due to a strong competition in its complex generics portfolio. Lupin will likely report a quarterly revenue ranging between $250 million and $280 million from the US for the next couple of quarters, significantly lower than its June quarter revenue of $366 million, the pharmaceutical company said in a post-earnings conference call with analysts.

 

Most of this pessimism is driven by severe competition for sales of complex generics in the US, which has led to price erosions across the portfolio. Lupin's Tolvaptan drug has already faced sharp price erosion in the June quarter, but the company's management indicated that further erosion will likely continue. The mirabegron drug, too, will face the brunt of price erosion from the September quarter. 

 

"So in Q1 (Apr-Jun), you don't have any additional competition on Tolvaptan... in September, we could potentially have one more entrant (as Tolvaptan generic competitor), so we expect (there) to be a four-player market with Tolvaptan," Vinita Gupta, chief executive officer of Lupin, said. "Given the additional competition, we expect pricing to come down," she added. The company had earlier said it will be able to maintain its market share in tolvaptan despite competition, but added that "we obviously will have to give some share as well to the additional entrants."

 

For the June quarter, Lupin reported a revenue of $366 million from the US, below the $378.67 million expected by analysts. US sales contributed to 42% of the company's global sales. The company has over 45 injectables and more than 20 inhalation drugs in its pipeline. It plans to launch at least five biosimilar drugs by FY31. For the June quarter, Lupin reported a consolidated net profit of INR 14.15 billion, up over 16% on year and higher than expectations. The company's consolidated revenues rose 32% on year to INR 82.77 billion and landed higher than estimates.  

 

The company expects that US market will return to a high-growth trajectory in FY28, largely on the back of exclusive first-to-file, biosimilars, and 505(b)(2) products. The 505(b)(2) is a streamlined US Food and Drug Administration drug approval process that allows use of existing data that drug developers do not own. The company has high hopes for its pegfilgrastim drug for the second-half of FY27, where it sees a large sales potential. Its revenue growth from the US will be contingent on new nasal spray and injectables launches. In FY29, revenue from new biosimilar launches, particularly the Aflibercept biosimilar launch, is expected to be the next lever of growth. 

 

Despite a pessimistic view of US sales, the company retained its FY27 guidance of high-single digit revenue growth. It expects earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation margin of around 25% during the year. The strong growth in India and key therapies in the June quarter will likely sustain going ahead, which will help Lupin achieve its guidance, the company said. It is also bullish on its domestic formulations business, which it expects will outperform the Indian pharmaceutical market growth by 1.2 to 1.3 times in terms of sales growth.

 

Expectations of continued growth in sales in regions outside the US also lends support to the company's guidance. Europe, specifically, has been a high growth opportunity for the company due to its branded generics portfolio and the company expects to report a revenue growth of 10-20% per quarter from the region in FY27. "We actually are very optimistic, very hopeful that Europe is going to increasingly become a more important geography for Lupin for certain, just given our portfolio of respiratory products, biosimilars overall, as well as the ophthalmology biosimilars, as well as the speciality portfolio," the company said. Additionally, Lupin said that the price erosion in generics in Europe is not as sharp as it is in the US. The company expects double-digit revenue growth in countries classified under its Rest of World region in FY27. 

 

Speaking of a long-term vision for biosimilars, the company said it aims to increase revenue from innovative drugs to one-third of its total India revenue in 10 years. This innovative portfolio will come from Lupin's in-house development as well as in-licence products. The company has plans to launch 60–70 innovative drugs in India over the next 10 years. The company plans on investing 8% of its FY27 sales in research and development.

 

Lupin reported its earnings after market hours Thursday. On Friday, the company's shares ended nearly 1% lower than Thursday at INR 2,363.50 apiece on the National Stock Exchange.  End

 

US$1 = INR 95.21

 

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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