Earnings Outlook
Oil India Q1 Profit After Tax to jump three-fold on higher realisations
This story was originally published at 20:43 IST on 6 August 2026
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Thursday, Aug. 6, 2026
By Pratyush Kumar
MUMBAI – State-owned exploration and production company Oil India Ltd. is expected to report a near three-fold rise in its June quarter profit aided by strong crude oil realisations and a sharp jump in revenue on the back of higher crude oil production, according to brokerages tracking the company.
Oil India's net profit for the June quarter is expected to rise nearly three times on year to INR 22.13 billion, according to the average of estimates from 11 brokerages. The net profit is seen growing 24% sequentially. The company's net revenue is seen growing 53% on year and 29% sequentially to INR 76.88 billion, according to the average of estimates.
The highest estimate for the oil driller's June quarter net profit is INR 27.60 billion from Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. and the lowest is INR 15.45 billion from JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd. The highest estimate for net revenue is INR 80.37 billion from YES Securities (India) Ltd. and the lowest is INR 72.79 billion from Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.
Oil India's crude oil production is expected to increase 8% for the June quarter and crude oil realisation is likely to be $100.8 per barrel. The company's gas realisation is expected to rise 9% on quarter to $7.8 per million British thermal units, but its gas production is expected to fall 4% on year, Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. said.
The upstream oil company is likely to see a realisation of $96.6 per barrel for the June quarter, according to the average of four estimates. The highest estimate for realisation is $100.8 per barrel from Emkay Global and the lowest estimate is $91.7 per barrel from JM Financial. The growth in the company's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation, and exploration expenses is also likely to be driven by higher crude oil
realisations, Nomura said.
The company's domestic gas realisation for the June quarter is likely to be higher sequentially at $6.9 per mBtu as the administered price mechanism gas price averaged higher to $7.0 per mBtu in the June quarter, JM Financial said.
Oil India has not benefited much from the new government norms under which gas from new wells can be sold at a premium of 20% over the price mandated under the administered price mechanism. The sale of gas from old wells, which constitute the bulk of gas produced by Oil India, continues to be governed by the administered price mechanism.
Oil India's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation for the June quarter are expected to be INR 35.87 billion, according to the average of eight estimates. The highest EBITDA estimate is INR 39.42 billion from Kotak Securities and the lowest is INR 32.55 from JM Financial. The company's EBITDA for the June quarter is likely to double, supported by the rise in crude oil production, Elara Securities said. The rise in EBITDA is likely due to higher crude oil prices and a weak base, brokerages said.
Oil India is an upstream company engaged in oil exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas. The company reported a net profit of INR 8.13 billion on the revenues of INR 50.12 billion for the year-ago quarter. Oil India will detail its June quarter earnings Friday.
Of the nine research reports on the company available with Informist, seven have a 'buy' recommendation on the stock at an average target price of INR 598 apiece, nearly 35% higher than the current market price. Two brokerages have a 'sell' call on the stock at an average target price of INR 483 per share.
Shares of the company ended unchanged at INR 444 apiece on the National Stock Exchange Thursday. The shares are 14% lower since the company disclosed its March quarter earnings on May 13.
The following are the June quarter earnings estimates, in INR billion, for Oil India from 11 broking firms in descending order of the net profit estimate:
|
Brokerage |
Net Sales |
Net Profit |
EBITDA |
|
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. |
75.60 |
27.60 |
36.20 |
|
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. |
72.79 |
26.81 |
-- |
|
Kotak Securities Ltd. |
80.20 |
23.35 |
39.42 |
|
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. |
79.66 |
23.16 |
39.25 |
|
Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd. |
75.64 |
22.88 |
36.26 |
|
360 ONE Capital Market Pvt. Ltd. |
77.34 |
22.07 |
-- |
|
ICICI Securities Ltd. |
77.20 |
21.10 |
34.60 |
|
YES Securities (India) Ltd. |
80.37 |
20.72 |
35.00 |
|
Nomura Equity Research |
75.40 |
20.50 |
-- |
|
PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. |
76.74 |
19.80 |
33.64 |
|
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd. |
74.76 |
15.45 |
32.55 |
|
Average |
76.88 |
22.13 |
35.87 |
End
US$1 = INR 95.22
Edited by Pankaj Aher
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